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Brian Schmeer

 
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  • Ready To Invest In SodaStream For The Long Haul: Part 1 [View article]
    The cutest girls at my school have never been selective!
    Dec 8 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream: Good For A Quick Profit [View article]
    .....buy at 35 and sell at 42 because growth times earnings prices the stock at 48....that's a very very simplistic analysis. I suppose we should just ignore the 6.5 million shares being shorted, the general belief that the product is a fad, the resistance at the 35-36 range, and the fact that the stock has been trading between 28-35 for weeks. We should also ignore europe's trouble and that sodastream's developped market is in europe.

    Don't get me wrong, I don't necessarily disagree with you.

    ps: Sodastream doesn't save the consumer any money vs. regular sodas.
    Dec 8 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why To Avoid Lululemon [View article]
    This stock was trading in the 3-4$ range in 2009, and each of your 4 points were just as valid then as they are now. Since the stock has risen to the $50-$60 range, it is safe to say that you have severely misunderstood this company. I find this to be very common amongst male investors who have not taken the time to understand the clientèle. Here are why your 4 points are invalid:

    1) Imitation: It absolutely has a sustainable competitive advantage. That competitive advantage arises from the community they have developed, the experience associated with shopping at LULU, and their marketing strategy that is focused solely on women. As the CEO has explained, the company plans to grow its male business but not through marketing. Fitness clothing advertising to men and to women are very different, and in order to maintain the community and spiritual feelings with the company, they can't advertise to both at the same time. Their competitors rely to heavily on male products.

    2) They are not really a Yoga company, they sell fitness clothing for women. That is not a fad. Running clothes are growing as a portion of their business. Also, they have been rapidly expanding their dance clothes offering, which is said to be the newest women fitness fad.

    3) Insane to speak of saturation with a company that only has a little over 100 stores....

    4) The company focuses sales on intelligent empowered women, which definitely appeals to a wealthier consumer. On top of this, the company has excelled in recession, often by changing their offerings. For example, they sold more running clothes during the recession, (which they predicted and subsequently increased inventory in said products), because people tend to cut their gym memberships during recessions and instead focus cheaper alternatives...running.
    Dec 5 12:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ready To Invest In SodaStream For The Long Haul: Part 1 [View article]
    The CEO addressed a question very similar to this in the conference call. He highlighted that many American consumers are purchasing new C02 cannisters rather than refilling them or trading them in. For whatever reason, Sodastream considers new C02 cannister sales as hardware sales, not consumables. He stressed that of the abnormal amount of new C02 cannister sales were included in consumables as he admitted they should be, consumables growth would have exceeded expectations.
    Nov 22 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ready To Invest In SodaStream For The Long Haul: Part 1 [View article]
    Great question. A similar question was asked in the conference call. Consumables were a little lower than expected, and this would definitely be a cause of concern if it told the whole story. However, as the CEO explained, a lot consumers in the US have oddly decided to buy new CO2 cannisters altogether rather than trading in or refilling their old ones. Sodastream's accounting considers the purchase of new C02 cannisters in to hardware sales. The CEO explained that once you incorporated the abnormal amount of new C02 cannister sales in to the consumables instead of hardware, as it should be, consumables growth was above expectations.

    I don't know if Sodastream will turn out to be a fad or not, but I do know that Macy's and Staples are offering refillables at all of their stores, which suggests a long term commitment to Sodastream.
    Nov 22 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why SodaStream Will Rip In The Next 4 Months [View article]
    Soda sells their machines to retailers with margins close to 0. In other words, selling units doesn't matter to them if they end up in the closet. The reason the stock has dropped in the last few weeks after blow out earnings is because consumable purchases slowed down.
    Nov 21 11:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why SodaStream Will Rip In The Next 4 Months [View article]
    Soda makes no money on the machine sales. Their profit is from selling the high margin consumables. In other words, selling them to people like you only helps the retailers/
    Nov 21 11:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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