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Brice Mckalip  

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  • The Future Of Seeking Alpha [View article]
    I'd say the average quality of the short ideas is 2x the long ones.
    Mar 26, 2015. 02:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Seeking Alpha [View article]
    I'm always a sucker for a t-shirt. $1k/y for a subscription? TBD. $1k for articles and a t-shirt? In for sure. Could embed the electrodes in it.
    Mar 26, 2015. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Attractive Yield And Price Appreciation Potential Key Features Of CHMI [View article]
    I agree with Rob on all of his points, particularly how CHMI has been very well positioned given that NAV has been going up in a falling rate environment due to its large MBS holding. I have been concerned by management entertaining analyst questions regarding gearing the MSR investments as MSRs are inherently extremely sensitive to interest rates but management has not made any active steps in this direction.
    Mar 24, 2015. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seaspan: The 'Floating' Bond That Grows [View article]
    Morningstar and Yahoo are computing it based on net income. I agree with CFH that you want to add depreciation to understand this firm's true dividend coverage. That said, the ships are a depreciating asset so either model liquidation or future CapEx to refresh the fleet.
    Mar 19, 2015. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Friedman Industries A Bargain? [View article]
    The new plant is very important as it's turning their cash into PP&E. Taking their balance sheet and making that one adjustment eliminates the "cash rich" thesis and is why I too sold my stake.
    Mar 17, 2015. 04:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ALJ Regional Holdings - Upside In King Vs. Burwell [View article]
    They can (and have) but their residents just don't get subsidies. Why? Cause it's the law congress passed. Is it a good law? This part is certainly strange but far from the weirdest legislation.
    Mar 3, 2015. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Novatel Wireless: A Fundamentally Flawed Business Plan [View article]
    Glad I was cautious, Q4 results were much much better than I expected. I disdain non-GAAP numbers but a lot of the expenses even I think were non-recurring like the last litigation payment of $790k and stock based comp should be backed out if you're going short. All told, looks like they basically broke even and maybe made some pocket change. Don't know how long the trend will continue but not circling the toilet like I originally thought.

    That said, still appreciate the article; just not going to agree with the thesis this time.
    Feb 19, 2015. 05:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Novatel Wireless: A Fundamentally Flawed Business Plan [View article]
    So I did most of the reading you requested and nothing disputed the three important things I read in the article:
    1) Currently cash flow negative
    2) MIFI's market is very competitive and MIFI is not currently the leader
    3) Company is ATTEMPTING a turn around

    Will they succeed turning the company around? The sources you cite certainly think so but are mainly from management and so I would expect they'd back their own strategy. TSS' analysis is that they won't because they're behind the curve and won't be able to catch up.

    Personally I'm betting with TSS on this one because it's really tough for a company to overcome the dynamics of its market. I am interested in seeing Q4's results though so might wait to take a position until I see them just in case I'm wrong; but that's me being cautious and might well mean I miss out on the opportunity.
    Feb 17, 2015. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Novatel Wireless: A Fundamentally Flawed Business Plan [View article]
    Are there aren't facts to counter the author's claims or just lots of whining about people taking the other side of a bet? Guess I'll research the company myself and hope that other investors are as heavy on emotion and light on research as the commentators.

    Thanks for the article Street Sweeper, prompts me to start my own MIFI research.
    Feb 11, 2015. 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Game Over For Majesco Shareholders [View article]
    I agree that COOL is in a death spiral of expensive financing. How much it's worth depends on how much it costs to shut down the current business before it's used as an acquisition vehicle for the next thing. COOL's current incarnation itself came about as part of a reverse merger and I expect some similar transaction will happen this time.

    Thanks for the article.
    Feb 9, 2015. 04:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks: Follow The Gift Cards [View article]
    I know it's not the only point in the article but I'm not sure gift card breakage accrues to the company and believe they escheat to the state. Might depend on the state but I'm aware of at least one publicly traded company in Oregon that sends amounts over a couple of years old to the state unclaimed property divisions.
    Jan 28, 2015. 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Cares If $50 Oil Is Here To Stay? Atlas Is Being Acquired [View article]
    Wells do need to be decommissioned (not free) when done and closing any business is expensive which leads many cyclical industries to mothball their capabilities to wait out the cycle. At $100/bbl the E&P piece has clear value, sub $50 it may well be a net liability.
    Jan 16, 2015. 11:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Significant Total Return Potential Key Feature Of Cherry Hill [View article]
    Portfolio duration is pretty near zero (-0.09) and stays below 0.6 even in a +200bps environment so I'd be surprised if the -75bp it's at since the last balance sheet had more than a trivial impact.

    see slide 12:

    Just went long and think this has recently traded based on assumption that the interest rate falling is bad which isn't true for the RMBS and derivative portfolio.
    Jan 16, 2015. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia On Fire Sale: Gazprom At 20 Cents On The Dollar [View article]
    I thought the same of Yukos too, have since re-calibrated.
    Jan 14, 2015. 11:56 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom In Unconventional Places [View article]
    Extremely theoretical, I'd go so far as to call it philosophical.
    As a value investor, I don't make a move unless I can plausibly explain the logic behind the other side of the trade and so understanding why prices move is important to my process. I've come across several screaming bargains that I couldn't explain and passed on which ended up being value traps and frauds.
    Jan 13, 2015. 08:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment