Numbers Or No Numbers, Nokia Is A Buy [View article]
@Tedlujan Heres an article from this past July in which I delve into the potential value of emerging markets specifically India/Asia, enjoy! http://seekingalpha.co...
Here’s my favorite Example: “What makes Nokia’s patent strength even more more intimidating is that Nokia and Qualcomm had entered into a 15-year patent licensing agreement in 2008, which basically gave Nokia access to all of Qualcomm’s patents for use in its mobile phones. This essentially translates to unrivaled access to more than 30% of the essential LTE patents – a position of strength that not only insulates Nokia from litigation in the ongoing patent war, but also gives it enough ammunition (with its 19% LTE patent share) to go after rivals and generate cash through licensing deals.”
“This substantial position in LTE holdings is even more remarkable when the following revelation found in the footnotes of the Nokia 2011 annual report is considered, "In 2008, Nokia and Qualcomm entered into a new 15 year agreement, under the terms of which Nokia was granted a license to all Qualcomm's patents for the use in Nokia mobile devices and Nokia Siemens Networks infrastructure equipment." Thus, the company has complete access to an unrivaled 31.4% of the essential LTE patents, a fact that will undoubtedly save Nokia a significant amount of time and money in the coming years as the patent litigation war which has raged in the past shows no sign of letting up. The following graph depicts the distribution of these essential 4G/LTE patents among Nokia and its various competitors.”
Your Thesis:"For the rest of the world, however, in places where the 3G rollout is a big deal - think Thailand, Indonesia, India and China - Nokia is in a different place because the market is so completely different than it is here in the States."
Very similar to mine except You do not substantiate the 3G claim at all (Which I did as an original thought an intext citation would be nice, research takes time) and Your addition of Thailand and China is quite laughable considering that Nokia has very little market share in either country, the future of Nokia is Not China its Africa/latin America, if you did some research you would know that.
My favorite quote, "Across Asia, a significant portion of the market carries both a smartphone and dual-SIM Nokia candy-bar burner phone to make/receive important calls on because, as a phone, Nokia is virtually without peer." In India they have dual sim Nokia phones that does not mean all of Asia has one.
I completely understand, discipline and conviction are the most important thins when it comes to investing, making a plan and sticking to it may result in a few missed opportunities nut more often than not it save retail from more rushed mistakes than they can even fathom. That said, i just wanted to let everyone know as the technicals are lining up for an outside shot at hitting 5 today at which point it is poised to run due as much to the non-institutional investors aware of this and jump in pushing the stock.
Did not not see another big day like this coming but it appears to be approaching that all important $5.00 which will open the stock to the many institutional investors that cannot trade stocks below $5, thus be advised that the stock will quickly rise toi the 6 or 7 level once 5 is reached so if anyone wants to get back in now is the time to think about it...
Nokia's Earnings Preview Intervention Could Illustrate Internal Pressure On Elop [View article]
It seems pretty obvious to me that they made a strategic decision to announce early because this announcement while impressive when you consider where Nokia was, would be lost during January earnings when as a few companies will have inevitably capitalized on Christmas demand leading to an earnings report that blows Nokia out of the water.
As an ardent Nokia supporter I published a set of research reports on the upside of Nokia during this past summer/early fall when the stock had become oversold to a ridiculous extent. Here are the links for those that did not get a chance to read my analysis; http://seekingalpha.co... and http://seekingalpha.co.... e To summarize, the company holds a patent portfolio that is truly industry leading as it trails only Microsoft in total number of issued patents yet surpasses Microsoft and all others by a large margin when it comes to strategic importance and technological innovation. This is apparent in the fact that Nokia holds approximately 19% of all patents considered essential to mobile 4G/LTE technology. The ability of Nokia to maintain such a consistently high success rate while asserting and defending claims against multiple competitors for a variety of different technologies in numerous continents shows the true dominance of their patented technology. Annual IPR revenue will be about $600, despite this significant amount of free cash flow, the staggering truth is that patent monetization was not a major emphasis of Nokia management until recent quarters when Elop began to push active monetization of the patent portfolio. To this end, the first major manifestation of this approach was the lawsuit filed against Rimm, Viewsonic and HTC which in May 2012. The IPR revenues resulting from the settlement if these suits will begin to materially impact revenue by Q4 of this year and combine that with the potential of licensing settlements for the other major Android manufactures and annual IPR revenue could very easily surpass $1 billion by early 2014. And while many investors would rather not fathom this situation, if the Nokia turnaround proves to be short-lived and in a worst case scenario Nokia approaches bankruptcy, it seems plausible that Nokia would follow the path of Nortel/Motorola and sell their patents to the highest bidder in an auction based sale. In such an event, it would appear that in n identical auction setup with the same companies bidding on the patents, Nokia garner substantially more than Nortel (4.5) or Motorola (5.5) as its portfolio is sustainably superior in every conceivable valuation metric, it seems plausible to assume that at the very least Nok would sell for the 4.5 garnered by Nortel however, even in such a discounted scenario investors must remember that 4.5 is a substantial floor for a company with a market cap of only 12 billion. Very briefly, the second article deals with my assertion that most many mobile markets outside if the US and UK are still in their infancy and as such feature-phones will continue to make up a majority of device sales in such places. In particular, I focus on gigantic opportunity this allows Nokia in India which is the world’s second largest mobile market and due to a variety of factors from a lack of complete lack of mobile centric infrastructure to extremely low per capita income, the majority of users have no desire in smartphones as evidenced by the prevalence of the feature phone which still makes up 90% of units sold. As some of you may remember, I mentioned that Navteq and the mobile mapping market encompassed my third and final area of upside for Nokia and as such I had completed a rather detailed article on the subject about two weeks after I published the patents article but after having it sent back multiple times by SA editors do to length restrictions I became pretty annoyed and decided that I would return to it at a later date. However, this plan changed after the Apple-Maps debacle which convinced me that mobile mapping was a lot more complicated than I originally surmised and since very little reliable research exists regarding the complex processes that underlie these services. I have spent a good amount of time researching the entire process from the ground up and attempting to provide analysis in what was supposed to be a 2K-4K word article but became a 22K word document packed with data and findings which lead to the conclusion that Navteq maps is poised to bring back the glory days of Nokia. Hoping to have it published by Monday market open Monday but who knows with SA sometimes! If it wasn’t obvious, I would advise you to hold the stock as the upside is astronomical!
RIM Settlement Shows There Is Value In Nokia's Patents [View article]
exact quote from my article: "This industry leading quality is clearly apparent in a review of the 3,144, 4G/LTE patents considered essential to the application of the technology (as of November 2011) performed by the research firm Article-one Partners in collaboration with Thomas Reuters which found that as of Q4 2011, Nokia held 18.9% of the total essential 4G/LTE patents in circulation. This substantial position in LTE holdings is even more remarkable when the following revelation found in the footnotes of the Nokia 2011 annual report is considered, "In 2008, Nokia and Qualcomm entered into a new 15 year agreement, under the terms of which Nokia was granted a license to all Qualcomm's patents for the use in Nokia mobile devices and Nokia Siemens Networks infrastructure equipment." Thus, the company has complete access to an unrivaled 31.4% of the essential LTE patents, a fact that will undoubtedly save Nokia a significant amount of time and money in the coming years as the patent litigation war which has raged in the past shows no sign of letting up. The following graph depicts the distribution of these essential 4G/LTE patents among Nokia and its various competitors."
looks pretty similar to the 3rd/4th paragraph in this "original," article which reads, "[1] Even in terms of quality, Nokia’s patents stand out. In a 2011 review of the 3000+ patents considered essential to the LTE technology that is quickly emerging as the preferred 4G standard, Thomson Reuters and Article-one found that Nokia held close to 19% of the standard essential LTE patents and was the LTE leader by a big margin. [2] Qualcomm (QCOM), the dominant mobile chipset manufacturer, trailed Nokia with a share of about 12.5% of the LTE patents deemed essential.
What makes Nokia’s patent strength even more more intimidating is that Nokia and Qualcomm had entered into a 15-year patent licensing agreement in 2008, which basically gave Nokia access to all of Qualcomm’s patents for use in its mobile phones. This essentially translates to unrivaled access to more than 30% of the essential LTE patents – a position of strength that not only insulates Nokia from litigation in the ongoing patent war, but also gives it enough ammunition (with its 19% LTE patent share) to go after rivals and generate cash through licensing deals."
Trefis please give credit where it is Due, it takes time and effort to produce these articles on my own!
My Take On The Nokia And Microsoft Partnership [View article]
Hymanbaum,
I could not agree more, it always frustrates me when investors in the US/Europe routinely fail to see that foreign markets do exist. I wrote about Nokia dominance in India a few months back if ur interested.
My Take On The Nokia And Microsoft Partnership [View article]
Efsinvestment,
Thanks for the article, I have often pondered what will happen to Google/Android platform in the coming years. The Samsung ruling marked the 16th time a case involving infringement by an Android manufacturer/operator has settled. At some point the "free" open platform will begin to cost these companies a comparable amount to other platforms.
Apple: Learn From Andy Zaky's Mistake [View article]
Numbers Or No Numbers, Nokia Is A Buy [View article]
Heres an article from this past July in which I delve into the potential value of emerging markets specifically India/Asia, enjoy!
http://seekingalpha.co...
Nokia Finds The Niche Between Cool And Commodity [View article]
Here’s my favorite Example:
“What makes Nokia’s patent strength even more more intimidating is that Nokia and Qualcomm had entered into a 15-year patent licensing agreement in 2008, which basically gave Nokia access to all of Qualcomm’s patents for use in its mobile phones. This essentially translates to unrivaled access to more than 30% of the essential LTE patents – a position of strength that not only insulates Nokia from litigation in the ongoing patent war, but also gives it enough ammunition (with its 19% LTE patent share) to go after rivals and generate cash through licensing deals.”
“This substantial position in LTE holdings is even more remarkable when the following revelation found in the footnotes of the Nokia 2011 annual report is considered, "In 2008, Nokia and Qualcomm entered into a new 15 year agreement, under the terms of which Nokia was granted a license to all Qualcomm's patents for the use in Nokia mobile devices and Nokia Siemens Networks infrastructure equipment." Thus, the company has complete access to an unrivaled 31.4% of the essential LTE patents, a fact that will undoubtedly save Nokia a significant amount of time and money in the coming years as the patent litigation war which has raged in the past shows no sign of letting up. The following graph depicts the distribution of these essential 4G/LTE patents among Nokia and its various competitors.”
Nokia Finds The Niche Between Cool And Commodity [View article]
Your Thesis:"For the rest of the world, however, in places where the 3G rollout is a big deal - think Thailand, Indonesia, India and China - Nokia is in a different place because the market is so completely different than it is here in the States."
Very similar to mine except You do not substantiate the 3G claim at all (Which I did as an original thought an intext citation would be nice, research takes time) and Your addition of Thailand and China is quite laughable considering that Nokia has very little market share in either country, the future of Nokia is Not China its Africa/latin America, if you did some research you would know that.
My favorite quote, "Across Asia, a significant portion of the market carries both a smartphone and dual-SIM Nokia candy-bar burner phone to make/receive important calls on because, as a phone, Nokia is virtually without peer." In India they have dual sim Nokia phones that does not mean all of Asia has one.
Here To Make (Quick) Money With Nokia [View instapost]
Here To Make (Quick) Money With Nokia [View instapost]
Here To Make (Quick) Money With Nokia [View instapost]
-And its going to be 4 separate parts as i finally just decided to stop fighting it and just oblige the SA editors haha
Nokia's Earnings Preview Intervention Could Illustrate Internal Pressure On Elop [View article]
Here To Make (Quick) Money With Nokia [View instapost]
To summarize, the company holds a patent portfolio that is truly industry leading as it trails only Microsoft in total number of issued patents yet surpasses Microsoft and all others by a large margin when it comes to strategic importance and technological innovation. This is apparent in the fact that Nokia holds approximately 19% of all patents considered essential to mobile 4G/LTE technology. The ability of Nokia to maintain such a consistently high success rate while asserting and defending claims against multiple competitors for a variety of different technologies in numerous continents shows the true dominance of their patented technology. Annual IPR revenue will be about $600, despite this significant amount of free cash flow, the staggering truth is that patent monetization was not a major emphasis of Nokia management until recent quarters when Elop began to push active monetization of the patent portfolio. To this end, the first major manifestation of this approach was the lawsuit filed against Rimm, Viewsonic and HTC which in May 2012. The IPR revenues resulting from the settlement if these suits will begin to materially impact revenue by Q4 of this year and combine that with the potential of licensing settlements for the other major Android manufactures and annual IPR revenue could very easily surpass $1 billion by early 2014.
And while many investors would rather not fathom this situation, if the Nokia turnaround proves to be short-lived and in a worst case scenario Nokia approaches bankruptcy, it seems plausible that Nokia would follow the path of Nortel/Motorola and sell their patents to the highest bidder in an auction based sale. In such an event, it would appear that in n identical auction setup with the same companies bidding on the patents, Nokia garner substantially more than Nortel (4.5) or Motorola (5.5) as its portfolio is sustainably superior in every conceivable valuation metric, it seems plausible to assume that at the very least Nok would sell for the 4.5 garnered by Nortel however, even in such a discounted scenario investors must remember that 4.5 is a substantial floor for a company with a market cap of only 12 billion.
Very briefly, the second article deals with my assertion that most many mobile markets outside if the US and UK are still in their infancy and as such feature-phones will continue to make up a majority of device sales in such places. In particular, I focus on gigantic opportunity this allows Nokia in India which is the world’s second largest mobile market and due to a variety of factors from a lack of complete lack of mobile centric infrastructure to extremely low per capita income, the majority of users have no desire in smartphones as evidenced by the prevalence of the feature phone which still makes up 90% of units sold.
As some of you may remember, I mentioned that Navteq and the mobile mapping market encompassed my third and final area of upside for Nokia and as such I had completed a rather detailed article on the subject about two weeks after I published the patents article but after having it sent back multiple times by SA editors do to length restrictions I became pretty annoyed and decided that I would return to it at a later date. However, this plan changed after the Apple-Maps debacle which convinced me that mobile mapping was a lot more complicated than I originally surmised and since very little reliable research exists regarding the complex processes that underlie these services. I have spent a good amount of time researching the entire process from the ground up and attempting to provide analysis in what was supposed to be a 2K-4K word article but became a 22K word document packed with data and findings which lead to the conclusion that Navteq maps is poised to bring back the glory days of Nokia. Hoping to have it published by Monday market open Monday but who knows with SA sometimes!
If it wasn’t obvious, I would advise you to hold the stock as the upside is astronomical!
RIM Settlement Shows There Is Value In Nokia's Patents [View article]
"This industry leading quality is clearly apparent in a review of the 3,144, 4G/LTE patents considered essential to the application of the technology (as of November 2011) performed by the research firm Article-one Partners in collaboration with Thomas Reuters which found that as of Q4 2011, Nokia held 18.9% of the total essential 4G/LTE patents in circulation. This substantial position in LTE holdings is even more remarkable when the following revelation found in the footnotes of the Nokia 2011 annual report is considered, "In 2008, Nokia and Qualcomm entered into a new 15 year agreement, under the terms of which Nokia was granted a license to all Qualcomm's patents for the use in Nokia mobile devices and Nokia Siemens Networks infrastructure equipment." Thus, the company has complete access to an unrivaled 31.4% of the essential LTE patents, a fact that will undoubtedly save Nokia a significant amount of time and money in the coming years as the patent litigation war which has raged in the past shows no sign of letting up. The following graph depicts the distribution of these essential 4G/LTE patents among Nokia and its various competitors."
looks pretty similar to the 3rd/4th paragraph in this "original," article which reads,
"[1] Even in terms of quality, Nokia’s patents stand out. In a 2011 review of the 3000+ patents considered essential to the LTE technology that is quickly emerging as the preferred 4G standard, Thomson Reuters and Article-one found that Nokia held close to 19% of the standard essential LTE patents and was the LTE leader by a big margin. [2] Qualcomm (QCOM), the dominant mobile chipset manufacturer, trailed Nokia with a share of about 12.5% of the LTE patents deemed essential.
What makes Nokia’s patent strength even more more intimidating is that Nokia and Qualcomm had entered into a 15-year patent licensing agreement in 2008, which basically gave Nokia access to all of Qualcomm’s patents for use in its mobile phones. This essentially translates to unrivaled access to more than 30% of the essential LTE patents – a position of strength that not only insulates Nokia from litigation in the ongoing patent war, but also gives it enough ammunition (with its 19% LTE patent share) to go after rivals and generate cash through licensing deals."
Trefis please give credit where it is Due, it takes time and effort to produce these articles on my own!
RIM Settlement Shows There Is Value In Nokia's Patents [View article]
Apple, Nokia, Research In Motion - Which Is A Winning Bet For 2013? [View article]
Apple, Nokia, Research In Motion - Which Is A Winning Bet For 2013? [View article]
My Take On The Nokia And Microsoft Partnership [View article]
I could not agree more, it always frustrates me when investors in the US/Europe routinely fail to see that foreign markets do exist.
I wrote about Nokia dominance in India a few months back if ur interested.
http://seekingalpha.co...
My Take On The Nokia And Microsoft Partnership [View article]
Thanks for the article, I have often pondered what will happen to Google/Android platform in the coming years. The Samsung ruling marked the 16th time a case involving infringement by an Android manufacturer/operator has settled. At some point the "free" open platform will begin to cost these companies a comparable amount to other platforms.