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  • The New Nokia Has At Least A 20% Upside Potential [View article]
    Since this comment section is so long you probably didnt get a chance to see my previous comment to which this was a follow up;
    "Upside of this stock is tremendous as all analyst upgrades and improved price targets fail to accurately value the patent portfolio and to a lesser extend here & location services.

    Take the most widely quoted valuation; JP Morgan's "Sum of the parts" analysis which can be seen here; http://bit.ly/17Ucgo2
    They place a value of 5.6 billion euro or $7.4 billion on the patent portfolio and many have called this a "high" estimate but in reality JP (like so may other analysts) is grossly undervaluing this asset. This estimate is based on "the Nortel precedent" which assumes that Nortels price per patent in its 2011 auction was $750,000; however, this is grossly inaccurate if you consider that only 2000 of the 6,000 Nortel patents acquired were still in force ie had any of its 20 year enforceable term remaining, thus the price per enforceable patent paid was approximately 2.25 million. Given its young portfolio, Nokia has about 8,000 enforceable patents in its 10000+ portfolio which would make the portfolio worth 18 billion using the "Nortel precedent." $10.6 billion more than the JP morgan valuation which would push their price per share estimate from $7.69 to $10.36. However, this is still an undervaluation because one must take into account quality of the patents in each portfolio; several studies done by IP valuation firms have all found that Nokia's portfolio contains significantly more patents considered novel or seminal (top 5% of all patents based on innovation and demand) to the 3G and 4G technologies; Nokia leads the industry in ownership of all patents considered seminal to 3/4g, at 10-18% depending on the study. While Nortel's portfolio contained just 1-2% of these seminal patents. Thus, Nokia's patent portfolio contains 5 to 9x more high quality integral patents than Nortel's. Combining this "quality" multiple with the previous $10.6 billion value based solely on volume, you would arrive at a total valuation of over $50 billion for Nokia's patent portfolio when using the Nortel auction prices as a proxy.

    Currently, all these analyst upgrades are simply a reaction to the unexpected sale, these analysts have very little clue or desire to accurately value these patents. However, as royalties continue to poor in they will begin to up these estimates, pushing the stock to highs not seen since 2010."

    This revision supports my theory that these analysts have little knowledge of how to properly value patents. To this end, it means that the upside potential of this stock is much greater than initially reported after the MSFT deal...

    And as for this point "Basically, the only thing you can take from this with any confidence is that a successful IP-focused strategy might earn Nokia a bunch of extra money, which could then cause their share price to rise a lot at some point. All the rest is going to be an exercise in precision without accuracy." All investments are precision without accuracy and for a stock that trades for under $8, the potential of this added IP value is worth the risk for most investors.
    Oct 24, 2013. 09:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Nokia Has At Least A 20% Upside Potential [View article]
    According to a Friday Valuewalk article, the JP Morgan analysts have already updated their analysis, due to the "realization" of tremendous patent value.
    "The firm’s European Communications Technology team and Communications Equipment and Data Networking team released a report highlighting places where they see Nokia could generate additional value. Their findings suggest that if the company adopted a strategy focused on intellectual property with a royalty of 1 percent per handset, then its stock could be worth between €10 and €15 by 2018. They even see additional potential depending on just how much cash Nokia Corporation (NYSE:NOK) (BIT:NOK1V) (HEL:NOK1V) could generate before then. They suggest that if Nokia grows its IP revenue, its multiple could go as high as Qualcomm was in the early 2000s."
    Oct 23, 2013. 09:38 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Patent Portfolio An Untapped Goldmine [View article]
    @asifruman, I have completed an updated and revised analysis of the patent portfolio valuation following the Microsoft deal and may post in the recent future if I can get some assurances from SA management that they will deal with any outright plagiarism of the article, something that was rampant in the weeks and months following the publication of this analysis yet despite repeated requests to SA they had no interest in taking action which was extremely frustrating.

    That said, I did post a brief analysis in the comment section of another article regarding the current patent valuations that have accompanied recent analyst upgrades:

    Upside of this stock is tremendous as all analyst upgrades and improved price targets fail to accurately value the patent portfolio and to a lesser extend here & location services.

    Take the most widely quoted valuation; JP Morgan's "Sum of the parts" analysis which can be seen here; http://bit.ly/17Ucgo2
    They place a value of 5.6 billion euro or $7.4 billion on the patent portfolio and many have called this a "high" estimate but in reality JP (like so may other analysts) is grossly undervaluing this asset. This estimate is based on "the Nortel precedent" which assumes that Nortels price per patent in its 2011 auction was $750,000; however, this is grossly inaccurate if you consider that only 2000 of the 6,000 Nortel patents acquired were still in force ie had any of its 20 year enforceable term remaining, thus the price per enforceable patent paid was approximately 2.25 million. Given its young portfolio, Nokia has about 8,000 enforceable patents in its 10000+ portfolio which would make the portfolio worth 18 billion using the "Nortel precedent." $10.6 billion more than the JP morgan valuation which would push their price per share estimate from $7.69 to $10.36. However, this is still an undervaluation because one must take into account quality of the patents in each portfolio; several studies done by IP valuation firms have all found that Nokia's portfolio contains significantly more patents considered novel or seminal (top 5% of all patents based on innovation and demand) to the 3G and 4G technologies; Nokia leads the industry in ownership of all patents considered seminal to 3/4g, at 10-18% depending on the study. While Nortel's portfolio contained just 1-2% of these seminal patents. Thus, Nokia's patent portfolio contains 5 to 9x more high quality integral patents than Nortel's. Combining this "quality" multiple with the previous $10.6 billion value based solely on volume, you would arrive at a total valuation of over $50 billion for Nokia's patent portfolio when using the Nortel auction prices as a proxy.

    Currently, all these analyst upgrades are simply a reaction to the unexpected sale, these analysts have very little clue or desire to accurately value these patents. However, as royalties continue to poor in they will begin to up these estimates, pushing the stock to highs not seen since 2010.
    Sep 13, 2013. 09:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Nokia Has At Least A 20% Upside Potential [View article]
    Dan Hoffman, thanks for the kind words, glad you enjoyed the analysis. In regards to my personal positions on the stock, I was fortunate to purchase a substantial number of otm Jan 14 calls a few weeks after the article was published and the stock went sub $3.00 and needless to say the return has been huge. Also have alot of happy friends/family members who I advised to open a position in Nok.
    Sep 12, 2013. 06:21 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Nokia Has At Least A 20% Upside Potential [View article]
    Well, I did not just pull these figures out of hat and its not just conjecture after the fact. I have been bullish on the untapped patent value of Nokia since last Summer when the stock was near all time lows; my analysis can be read here; http://seekingalpha.co....
    Most of my conclusions have proved right and it appears that other analysts, the vast majority of whom dismissed these claims of patent value, are now beginning to realize its profit potential. The next step is for mainstream analysts to learn proper patent valuation at which point the stock will skyrocket.
    Sep 12, 2013. 01:35 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Nokia Has At Least A 20% Upside Potential [View article]
    Upside of this stock is tremendous as all analyst upgrades and improved price targets fail to accurately value the patent portfolio and to a lesser extend here & location services.

    Take the most widely quoted valuation; JP Morgan's "Sum of the parts" analysis which can be seen here; http://bit.ly/17Ucgo2
    They place a value of 5.6 billion euro or $7.4 billion on the patent portfolio and many have called this a "high" estimate but in reality JP (like so may other analysts) is grossly undervaluing this asset. This estimate is based on "the Nortel precedent" which assumes that Nortels price per patent in its 2011 auction was $750,000; however, this is grossly inaccurate if you consider that only 2000 of the 6,000 Nortel patents acquired were still in force ie had any of its 20 year enforceable term remaining, thus the price per enforceable patent paid was approximately 2.25 million. Given its young portfolio, Nokia has about 8,000 enforceable patents in its 10000+ portfolio which would make the portfolio worth 18 billion using the "Nortel precedent." $10.6 billion more than the JP morgan valuation which would push their price per share estimate from $7.69 to $10.36. However, this is still an undervaluation because one must take into account quality of the patents in each portfolio; several studies done by IP valuation firms have all found that Nokia's portfolio contains significantly more patents considered novel or seminal (top 5% of all patents based on innovation and demand) to the 3G and 4G technologies; Nokia leads the industry in ownership of all patents considered seminal to 3/4g, at 10-18% depending on the study. While Nortel's portfolio contained just 1-2% of these seminal patents. Thus, Nokia's patent portfolio contains 5 to 9x more high quality integral patents than Nortel's. Combining this "quality" multiple with the previous $10.6 billion value based solely on volume, you would arrive at a total valuation of over $50 billion for Nokia's patent portfolio when using the Nortel auction prices as a proxy.

    Currently, all these analyst upgrades are simply a reaction to the unexpected sale, these analysts have very little clue or desire to accurately value these patents. However, as royalties continue to poor in they will begin to up these estimates, pushing the stock to highs not seen since 2010.
    Sep 12, 2013. 01:05 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On The New Nokia - The Future [View instapost]
    Upside of this stock is tremendous as all analyst upgrades and improved price targets fail to accurately value the patent portfolio and to a lesser extend here & location services.
    Take the most widely quoted valuation; JP Morgan's "Sum of the parts" analysis which can be seen here; http://bit.ly/17Ucgo2
    They place a value of 5.6 billion euro or $7.4 billion on the patent portfolio and many have called this a "high" estimate but in reality JP (like so may other analysts) is grossly undervaluing this asset. This estimate is based on "the Nortel precedent" which assumes that Nortels price per patent in its 2011 auction was $750,000; however, this is grossly inaccurate if you consider that only 2000 of the 6,000 Nortel patents aquired were still in force ie had any of its 20 year enforceable term remaining, thus the price per enforceable patent paid was approximately 2.25 million. Given its young portfolio, Nokia has about 8,000 enforceable patents in its 10000+ portfolio which would make the portfolio worth 18 billion using the "Nortel precedent." 10.6 billion more than the JP morgan valuation and this is based on sheer volume of patents but if you take into account quality of the patents in each portfolio, Nokia's patents are worth several multiples more than Nortel's. Take a look at my lengthy analysis of Nokia's patent portfolio published last Summer for an idea of just how innovative and novel it is compared to the rest of the tech community.
    Currently, all these analyst upgrades are simply a reaction to the unexpected sale, these analysts have very little clue or desire to accurately value these patents. However, as royalties continue to poor in they will begin to up these estimates, pushing the stock to highs not seen since 2010.
    Sep 12, 2013. 09:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Learn From Andy Zaky's Mistake [View article]
    Nice article Ash, i hope to see more similar ones holding fund mangers/analysts accountable in order to stop similar devastating losses in the future!
    Mar 26, 2013. 09:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Numbers Or No Numbers, Nokia Is A Buy [View article]
    @Tedlujan
    Heres an article from this past July in which I delve into the potential value of emerging markets specifically India/Asia, enjoy!
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 26, 2013. 09:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Finds The Niche Between Cool And Commodity [View article]
    Still Not as bad as The recent Trefis article (http://seekingalpha.co...) on Nokia patents which copied three of their five paragraphs from my Nokia article (http://seekingalpha.co...):

    Here’s my favorite Example:
    “What makes Nokia’s patent strength even more more intimidating is that Nokia and Qualcomm had entered into a 15-year patent licensing agreement in 2008, which basically gave Nokia access to all of Qualcomm’s patents for use in its mobile phones. This essentially translates to unrivaled access to more than 30% of the essential LTE patents – a position of strength that not only insulates Nokia from litigation in the ongoing patent war, but also gives it enough ammunition (with its 19% LTE patent share) to go after rivals and generate cash through licensing deals.”

    “This substantial position in LTE holdings is even more remarkable when the following revelation found in the footnotes of the Nokia 2011 annual report is considered, "In 2008, Nokia and Qualcomm entered into a new 15 year agreement, under the terms of which Nokia was granted a license to all Qualcomm's patents for the use in Nokia mobile devices and Nokia Siemens Networks infrastructure equipment." Thus, the company has complete access to an unrivaled 31.4% of the essential LTE patents, a fact that will undoubtedly save Nokia a significant amount of time and money in the coming years as the patent litigation war which has raged in the past shows no sign of letting up. The following graph depicts the distribution of these essential 4G/LTE patents among Nokia and its various competitors.”
    Feb 15, 2013. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Finds The Niche Between Cool And Commodity [View article]
    Pretty sure I wrote this article 6 or 7 months back...http://seekingalpha.co...

    Your Thesis:"For the rest of the world, however, in places where the 3G rollout is a big deal - think Thailand, Indonesia, India and China - Nokia is in a different place because the market is so completely different than it is here in the States."

    Very similar to mine except You do not substantiate the 3G claim at all (Which I did as an original thought an intext citation would be nice, research takes time) and Your addition of Thailand and China is quite laughable considering that Nokia has very little market share in either country, the future of Nokia is Not China its Africa/latin America, if you did some research you would know that.

    My favorite quote, "Across Asia, a significant portion of the market carries both a smartphone and dual-SIM Nokia candy-bar burner phone to make/receive important calls on because, as a phone, Nokia is virtually without peer." In India they have dual sim Nokia phones that does not mean all of Asia has one.
    Feb 15, 2013. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here To Make (Quick) Money With Nokia [View instapost]
    I completely understand, discipline and conviction are the most important thins when it comes to investing, making a plan and sticking to it may result in a few missed opportunities nut more often than not it save retail from more rushed mistakes than they can even fathom. That said, i just wanted to let everyone know as the technicals are lining up for an outside shot at hitting 5 today at which point it is poised to run due as much to the non-institutional investors aware of this and jump in pushing the stock.
    Jan 11, 2013. 02:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here To Make (Quick) Money With Nokia [View instapost]
    Did not not see another big day like this coming but it appears to be approaching that all important $5.00 which will open the stock to the many institutional investors that cannot trade stocks below $5, thus be advised that the stock will quickly rise toi the 6 or 7 level once 5 is reached so if anyone wants to get back in now is the time to think about it...
    Jan 11, 2013. 01:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here To Make (Quick) Money With Nokia [View instapost]
    Thanks for the kind words, glad you enjoy the research.

    -And its going to be 4 separate parts as i finally just decided to stop fighting it and just oblige the SA editors haha
    Jan 11, 2013. 07:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Earnings Preview Intervention Could Illustrate Internal Pressure On Elop [View article]
    It seems pretty obvious to me that they made a strategic decision to announce early because this announcement while impressive when you consider where Nokia was, would be lost during January earnings when as a few companies will have inevitably capitalized on Christmas demand leading to an earnings report that blows Nokia out of the water.
    Jan 11, 2013. 07:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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