Bruce Allen

Federal Deficit of $1 Trillion+ in 2009 Now Certain

Thanks for the thoughtful reply, Mr. Carey.
Whatever the outcome of the negotiations in Washington, there will be enormous pressure on the dollar in the next 12 months. The shorts are going to clean up. One can foresee additional Federal outlays in support of the dollar in currency markets in the hundreds of billions. Just like Japan. And now, owning great hunks of various financial businesses, becoming more like China. Very Naomi Klein.

Oil and Commodities Pricing: Fundamentals, Bubble or Manipulation?

As a former broker, the vernacular term for this practice is "pump and dump." Speculators use it to speculate. There are plenty of guys in very expensive suits walking around New York, London and Milan who made large money when oil was in the $140s and have left the building. They'll be back. Meanwhile, countries with carbon-based economies, namely every one worth noticing, will continue to suffer as secular growth in global demand works on markets and prices.

Support for Crude at $111?

Tim, Goldman Sachs is standing by their prediction of $149 crude at year end 2008, although I suspect they're feeling some pressure. Watch what happens to prices when China turns Beijing back on.

Will the Fed Actually Raise Rates Next Week?

Bob, I share your concerns--seekingalpha.com/artic.... I believe that oil drives most of this. Oil prices, and thus commodity prices in general, have been falling of late, in part, because the Chinese have turned off the Beijing engine for a month, and they probably don't have a lot of storage capacity. Another part of this is the weak dollar. Even if oil gets into the $70s again, it will be for a short time only. US gas consumption will go right back where it was once gas hits $3.50 a gallon.