The Active Quest for Alpha: A Loser's Game [View article]
Jeepers!. I knew Larry Swedroe 30 years ago. He was a directional macro trader back then. A good one at that. Currencies, bonds were his sandbox. Larry never got wedded to a position. He would be quick to admit when he was wrong and move accordingly. He was very good at riding winners.
He was also an opportunist. If trading was hot in Yen he would trade that. A week later it was the Dmark. He would be trading that. When things weren't moving he did not trade them at all.
Now he is a boring, buy and hold guy. Maybe he got old.
Before shorting WTI crude one should look what America is paying for crude. Consider the cash price for crude at the Gulf of Mexico. Last night it closed at $119.
Don't short futures at 100 when the cash cost is 120, unless you want to lose some money.....
Four Easy Pieces: Fed Unfazed; China Transfer Pricing; Weather Records; Social Security Outlook [View article]
The 2% will have no impact on SSA books. The are collecting less from workers, but they are getting exactly that amount back from Treasury. Treasury will have the deficit, not SSA.
The forecast is my initial estimate of the year based on my expectations for full year benefits and tax receipts.
Do the Facts Back Up Bernanke's QE II Claims? [View article]
Advantage Bernanke you say? Have you looked at the long bond of late? It has been in a free fall eve since Ben made his move on 11/3. You think that is just a coincidence i assume. You're wrong to think that.
My bet for you. QE2 will go down as one of the worst policy blunders in history. It will create more bubbles (I hope you see that, the evidence is as clear as a bell). The bubbles will burst (they always do). When they do burst QE and your boy Ben will be blamed. Rightfully so. The result will be that the Fed will be marginalized.
Is This Recovery Real or Just Another Head-Fake? [View article]
Point well taken. There are many reasons to be optimistic. That is what the lines on the graph are telling you.
I thought I made clear that this was no sure thing. We could continue as we have for the past six months for some time to come. But I think you would have to agree that the general direction global finance is headed does not lead to the conclusion of a soft landing.
Debt Factoids on Our National Debt Are Puzzling - And Scary [View article]
I started writing in 2009. There is nothing in print pre that. I haven't been on FOX in two years now. I got bumped because I was writing for Zero Hedge. The MSM hates Zero Hedge.
I don't care if you think my credibility and objectivity are suspect. Better that you should read something else. Possibly the WSJ has the truth you are looking for......
Bernanke Tries to Play Politics, Loses [View article]
The Fed bought 1.3 T of fannie/freddie mbs. This paper was not money good. It required Treasury (aka the taxpayer) to pony up a 1/2 trillion.
If the Fed did that, they can figure a way around any technical problems that might get in the way of buying Munis. Who's going to stop them? Answer: No one....
The Active Quest for Alpha: A Loser's Game [View article]
He was also an opportunist. If trading was hot in Yen he would trade that. A week later it was the Dmark. He would be trading that. When things weren't moving he did not trade them at all.
Now he is a boring, buy and hold guy. Maybe he got old.
Hi Larry!
bk
Paul Krugman Is Wrong: The United States Could Not End Up Like Greece [View article]
My thoughts: (hogwash)
brucekrasting.blogspot...
It's Time to Short Crude Oil [View article]
Don't short futures at 100 when the cash cost is 120, unless you want to lose some money.....
www.bloomberg.com/apps...
What's Next for the Swiss Franc? [View article]
Institutional Risk Analytics' Solution to the Mortgage Mess [View article]
Four Easy Pieces: Fed Unfazed; China Transfer Pricing; Weather Records; Social Security Outlook [View article]
The forecast is my initial estimate of the year based on my expectations for full year benefits and tax receipts.
Four Easy Pieces: Fed Unfazed; China Transfer Pricing; Weather Records; Social Security Outlook [View article]
Do the Facts Back Up Bernanke's QE II Claims? [View article]
My bet for you. QE2 will go down as one of the worst policy blunders in history. It will create more bubbles (I hope you see that, the evidence is as clear as a bell). The bubbles will burst (they always do). When they do burst QE and your boy Ben will be blamed. Rightfully so. The result will be that the Fed will be marginalized.
Is This Recovery Real or Just Another Head-Fake? [View article]
I thought I made clear that this was no sure thing. We could continue as we have for the past six months for some time to come. But I think you would have to agree that the general direction global finance is headed does not lead to the conclusion of a soft landing.
As always, it is about timing.
CBO Recommendation to Munis - Default! [View article]
Debt Factoids on Our National Debt Are Puzzling - And Scary [View article]
bk
Debt Factoids on Our National Debt Are Puzzling - And Scary [View article]
I don't care if you think my credibility and objectivity are suspect. Better that you should read something else. Possibly the WSJ has the truth you are looking for......
Debt Factoids on Our National Debt Are Puzzling - And Scary [View article]
bk
Bernanke Tries to Play Politics, Loses [View article]
If the Fed did that, they can figure a way around any technical problems that might get in the way of buying Munis. Who's going to stop them? Answer: No one....
Build America Bonds Not Extended [View article]
Think of going outside in freezing weather. You bundle up everything. Wear a hat and five layers. You get a muffler to cover your face from the wind.
But you go outside with no shoes on. You still will get frost bite. and if you stay outside too long you just might die.
We are all bundled up but have no shoes on. What a dumb policy is that? Would your mother send you out in the cold with no shoes?
The congress is doing just that. Be careful. It is very cold outside.