Bruce Krasting

How to Predict Prices of Commodities

Interesting. You quants amaze me.

I am an old guy and have been looking at things that can predict the future for a long time. I found a few, maybe you have too. In my experience they all blow up. They work for a while. You commit time and capital and then one day it just blows up. Then you are faced with tough choices. Do you continue with reliance on a quantitative approach or do you just can it and cut the losses that have occurred. 2008 was the most recent reminder regarding predictability.

Mohamed said, "You can not foretell the future". In my experience he is right.