Bruce Pile

The Next Major Crisis Brewing

The next major crisis brewing tends to be whatever the markets are not preoccupied with at the time. Right now that isn't auctions, interest rates, or commercial real estate. It could be Israel vs Iran. There are some serious early warnings about the military option being resorted to over the next 3 months or so. Yet, when I survey newsstands, and count the number of cover stories about Iran, I repeatedly come up with a total of zero! Only since the Geneva talks started yesterday have I noticed mention of it on CNBC.

I've posted on some of the signs of a strike coming soon at my blog. We've heard this wolf-crying drumbeat about Iran's nukes for many years now. And it's hard to believe two modern day countries could actually come to blows with nuclear fists. But consider these facts.

Nuclear weapons have actually been used in a war, not once but twice. There were no negotiations or even a warning. Just a quick destruction of two major cities. And the offender in this case is considered the most level-headed, responsible owner of nukes in history - the U.S.A.

Now fast forward to the mullahs of Iran. About half the people surveyed feel they wouldn't actually use their atom bombs - it would be suicide for them. But for Pete's sake, suicide bombing is their religion. So just how level-headed and responsible would these suicide bombers be with nuclear bombs? I doubt if Israel is going to wait around to find out.