It's a Winter Warming Spell - But More Snow Ahead for Markets [View article]
Another case against the safety of this rally is just the fact that everyone and their dog is trumpeting the return of a nice climb. Sentiment seems to have turned on a dime in two days to this new conventional wisdom. The market has a way of giving rude surprises to conventional wisdom.
The Humble Arithmetic of Portfolio Management [View article]
I've seen studies like the one above from '83 -'03 only for different time periods, and they showed exactly the same result. Market timing by fund holders drastically reduced the S&P average to a point where a CD would have done better.
With stocks, the rule is buy low and sell high. But the next several years will probably see a vigorous commodity bull market, and there are different rules for investing there. The climbs are usually more protracted and the pullbacks swifter. The rule changes to buy low and hold high. That is, don't be too cute and take every nickel and dime profit; and add new money in areas where a swift pullback has fizzled.
It's a Winter Warming Spell - But More Snow Ahead for Markets [View article]
The Humble Arithmetic of Portfolio Management [View article]
With stocks, the rule is buy low and sell high. But the next several years will probably see a vigorous commodity bull market, and there are different rules for investing there. The climbs are usually more protracted and the pullbacks swifter. The rule changes to buy low and hold high. That is, don't be too cute and take every nickel and dime profit; and add new money in areas where a swift pullback has fizzled.