Bruce Vanderveen's  Instablog

Since the March lows stocks have rocketed up 50% or more and the trend shows no sign of abating.  Back in March there was almost universal pessimism.  So what has changed?

Have fundamentals really improved?  Unemployment is still going up.  Tax receipts are falling drastically and state and local government must make cuts as they cannot "print money".  I guess California at least gave it a try with those infamous "IOU"s.  How green will the shoots stay if government money slows or stops?

In my opinion this is a tax payer fueled rally.  A massive infusion of newly printed money (backed by US taxpayers) is flooding the system.  The major recipients of this largess, the banks, get this money loaned to them at 0%.   They then do what all good bankers do,  reinvest the money at higher interest rates and profit from the spread.  With global crash fears ebbing, money is leaving the safety of short term treasuries, going into longer term treasuries, equities and commodities, all riskier assets.

The suspension of mark-to-market accounting has allowed bank held bad loans (still there and growing) to be kept on the books at face value.  Now we have banks reporting profits, even though the quality of the asset side of the balance sheet has not improved.  Question is:  Can profits generated from investment income compensate for buried-in-the-balance-sheet bad loans?  If Bernanke, and Geithner keep interest rates at 0% perhaps profits can be generated for a while yet by this risky carry trade.  Let's hope they don't start leveraging.

Unfortunately, US taxpayers will pay a terrible price.  Government deficits have quadrupled with no end in sight ($Trillion dollar deficits from now on?).  The simple fact is we cannot realistically pay off this debt short of debasing the US dollar and that may exactly what Bernanke intends to do.  He doesn't dare raise rates, he may have no choice about leaving short term rates low.  I always wondered why hyperinflated economies didn't stop the printing when the initial debts were devalued.  You know stop at 50-100 percent inflation, why go on to thousands or millions percent like Zimbabwe.  Maybe policitcally they had no choice.

Investors know this is dooming the dollar and it is dropping like a rock (see here) while non-printable assets such as gold (see here), oil (see here), grains, and stocks steadily march upward.  Even real estate is showing signs of bottoming.

Devaluing the dollar will cost all Americans dearly.   It will increases the price of just about everything and sets the stage for hyperinflation.  Think of gasoline at $10 or more a gallon, a loaf of bread at $10, a big night out with the family at McDonald for $40.  Health care?  Well, we don't even want to go there.  Savings and fixed income instruments would be devastated.

We have always had to deal with inflation to some extent.  The problem now is it threatens to spin out of control.  Hitting that magic window of 1-3% inflation may no longer be possible.  People in the know are loading up on non-printable dollar denominated assets while most Americans are blithely unaware of the storm clouds of debt towering on the horizon.

Disclosure: No positions in UUP, GLD or UCO

Up until 100 years ago our ancestors needed timber almost as much as water to survive.  Keeping warm, building shelter, constructing tools, all called for timber.  It was necessary for survival and life itself.  Indeed, plant material was (and still is) the basis of all life.

You can invest in timber by buying wooded acreage.  Periodically (like every 10-15 years) a timber company will pay to harvest your trees.  A much simpler and more efficient way though, would be to buy CUT, Claymore Securities' timber ETF  According to Claymore, CUT seeks investment results that track the Beacon Global Timber Index (see here for index information).

CUT invests at least 90% of its money in worldwide holdings of timber and wood product companies.  As of September 28, 2009, no company constituted over 5% of holdings, so your are well diversified.  Included are some well know companies such as Meadwestvaco (MWV), Rayonier (RYN) and Weyerhouser (WY).  A little under 1/2 of all holdings are in US (27%) or Japanese (19%) companies.

In the 1800's indiscriminate lumbering of pine (White Pine image at left) reduced much of America's, especially Michigan's, virgin pine to a wasteland of stumps and dry brush. This in turn sparked rampaging wildfires, both in the cities (Chicago fire of 1871) and on the cut over lands.  You can still see the effects of the fires in Northern Michigan.

Today, timber is harvested for packaging, paper, building materials, heating and furniture construction.  Home construction and furniture making are cyclical industries while packaging is highly dependent on the economy.  Many of CUT's holdings are packaging companies.

Is CUT a good investment?  You can make an argument either way.  On one hand timber is a real, not paper (I know, I know ... bad choice of words), asset which will always be in demand.  If nothing else you can always burn it for heat.  Wood heat is becoming preferred in rural areas as a replacement for expensive propane.

On the other hand, packaging demand, dependent on recession spooked consumer spending, is in a slump.  Since CUT has more than doubled off its 52 week lows one must question the near term prospects, especially in a deflationary environment.  CUT, going forward, will undoubtedly mirror the health of the worldwide economy.

You can find more about CUT at this page on Claymore's website.

Disclosure: No Positions

It has been a cool summer in west central Michigan.   I can count on one hand the number of days this fast departing summer had temperatures reaching the low 80's.  Now, in the last days of August, temperatures drop into the 30s overnight.  Cold fall winds are blowing in early off Lake Michigan and the long gray winter suddenly seems closer.

Like the weather, the Michigan economy is gloomy.  Folks sell firewood, apples and yard sale trinkets to get a small amount of cash.  How much of that gets reported to Uncle Sam?  Wouldn't help anyway.

Toys from more prosperous times line roads.  Boats, travel trailers and other paraphernalia can be had for a song.  Not many cars, I guess the clunkers program got most of them.  Deteriorating roads make for rough driving. Walk into a store: You will find solicitous clerks but few customers.

With an unemployment rate over 15%, real estate values continuing to drop, and a cold winter approaching, things seem bleak in Michigan.  One hopes the red, orange and gold leaves of October will change the mood.