Bryan Gomez

3 Market Scenarios for the Coming Years

i use finviz

3 Market Scenarios for the Coming Years

My three scenarios are directions the market may take in the future.

Unlike your three ways of how the market moves, mine has only two ways.

1) Magnitude - directional up or down
2) Duration - consolidation

The trend most of the time is always determined late in the game, almost always, is credited to hindsight. Along the way, there is magnitude and duration or to simplify it even further, swings.

I really don't want any predetermination of market direction affect my trading and investing. These three scenarios only sets up a road map. Combining it with fundamental analysis, at the least I know when to buy values and when to buy growth, when to increase allocation value stock and hold and when to just trade them.

There is really no hard and fast rule or rule set in stone. Strategies change over time. I just have to keep up with it.


> 1) Trend - They move in the same general direction - up or down -
> over a period of time. (30% of the time)
> 2) Counter-Trend - Also known as a "Sideways Market", this is where
> the prices change little, but move in a range for an extended period
> of time. (60% of the time)
> 3) Breakout - Also known as a "Spike", this is where prices "break

3 Market Scenarios for the Coming Years

The terminology "muddle through" comes from John Mauldin.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

you know its weed if it grows up so fast


On Aug 28 02:47 PM notsosmart wrote:

> is all this really fertilizing the green shoots?i think the green
> shoots are only weeds & the weed killer is coming.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

"FDIC's Sheila Bair acknowledged the heavy costs of rising bad loans and falling asset values, but noted "banking industry performance is, as always, a lagging indicator."

Isn't it that banking industry performance is always a leading indicator? Isn't it that in early cycle recoveries, banks must lead the outperformance?

Morning Briefing: Renewed Risk Aversion

I agree. The oversold condition has been corrected. Add in the spread between corp yield and treasuries being oversold.

Despite Big Fast Panic, It's Still a Normal Bear

I suggest you use the 520 day moving average if you wan tot estimate a bottom. For those who want the world to end, use 1000 day. That means a 3 year back track of all the gains we've made.

Roger when you say normal, it washes off that scared feeling. I agree with others that these are unusual times but again, extremes are made by the same people with same greed and fear and as soon as they are taken out of the market, will be replaced by another generation of people who will do the same.

Good for you not to play the panic game. Good Luck!

Expect the Real Rally by Mid-2009

too optimistic. wake up.