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Bryan Wagman

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  • Why The Bears Are Wrong About Apple [View article]

    Even if Apple is just catching up, I sure have loved the gains I've gotten from it. It doesn't matter when you buy the stock, only the end result matters. Patience is key in investing.

    Concerning your second point, I actually started this article before Icahn's announcement. But yes, even if the price fell today, I would still say the bears are wrong. I am an investor, not a trader/speculator.
    Aug 14, 2013. 12:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo: A Great Value Investment [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, Ray Lopez. I believe that America will always find a way to work things out though. Stocks have consistently risen through a depression, a few recessions, a few wars, etc. I can't sit on the sidelines because of something that I think might happen in 25 years. That's probably more than a quarter of my life I have wasted in fear. I just don't agree with that investing philosophy. One of the strengths of value investing is knowing your stock will bounce back when the economy recovers, which it has consistently done in America.
    Aug 13, 2013. 08:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Another Problem With The Bears' Logic [View article]
    Many people have posted comments addressing Apple's difficulties in the smartphone market. I've got a few things to say about that:

    1. The iPhone revolutionized phones. There's really no arguing that it brought the smartphone industry to prominence.

    2. Individual opinions on how "good" or "bad" a cell phone is are irrelevant. I know people that still prefer flip phones.

    3. Complaints about iOS7, how smoothly the phone runs, etc. are also somewhat irrelevant. With a new version of the operating system, not everyone is likely to be happy. There are two reasons for this. One is that humans tend to dislike change. Another is that maybe there are a few errors (I can't name any off the top of my head, and I have an iPhone). Apple will address these over time, as any good company would.

    4. The fact that Samsung has taken a significant lead in the worldwide smartphone market is a legitimate issue that needs to be addressed by the company. But Apple, having such a strong culture of innovation and expertise, has the power to change this. Their smartphone market share has been all over the place in recent years, as has the share of other companies. There are no indications that Samsung has an invincible hold on their share. They may fall out of their leading spot as quickly as they gained it. In the meantime, Apple is still having decent success with its iPhones and MacBooks. A few anticipated products also may provide support for the company. Apple may be down, but they are most certainly not out.
    Nov 14, 2013. 03:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Another Problem With The Bears' Logic [View article]
    You are right that there is not a single, specific group that controls the company's stock price. This is stating the obvious. But if there was no bearish sentiment, then the bulls wouldn't have anything to fear. If there were no identifiable problems with a stock, I don't see why that stock wouldn't just keep heading up. In the short term, prices are determined by what people think about a stock. They are determined by bid and ask. If everyone thought Apple was a $600 stock, that's where it would be trading. But instead, the line between the bears and the bulls lays at the current price of about $528.

    Your second concern seems to be something about a trivial error in wording. Yes, I like the way that you worded it even more than my choice of words. But my words also weren't "People are bearish because they think the public is going to become bearish because..." as you seemed to have read them as, for some strange reason.

    It seems you've gone out of your way to find irrelevant errors in my article. One of your complaints is concerning the concept of how the stock market works. The other is about my writing skills. The article's main idea stands strong.
    Nov 14, 2013. 03:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Bears Are Wrong About Apple [View article]
    I agree. The drop from 700 to 400 was far too fast and quite unjustified.
    Aug 13, 2013. 09:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Bears Are Wrong About Apple [View article]
    Thanks for the comments, iloewy, aardvark3, and Humble Eagles.
    I'll be thrilled to see $600 by the end of the year, that would be quite a surge. Hopefully it happens, but we'll just have to wait and see.
    Aug 13, 2013. 09:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo: A Great Value Investment [View article]
    Thanks for the comments, bluesmoke and tomlos. Hopefully those long positions will work out as I expect them to. Good luck!
    Aug 12, 2013. 09:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's M&A Activity Is One Of The Company's Primary Value Drivers [View article]
    As I stated in the article, Google Glass as an individual product has not experienced success. Nevertheless, the work that Google has done on Glass, from a technological standpoint, prepares them for when the wearables trend starts to grow later on down the road. I'm not saying that Glass is the reason to buy Google, but it is a sign of the company's willingness to take initiative in this nontraditional yet potentially profitable market.
    Dec 19, 2014. 12:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Reward Far Outweighs The Risk At AGCO [View article]
    That is true, the debt to equity ratio of 3.41 for DE is too high for my liking, and it has been in a general uptrend over the long term as the company continues to finance projects through debt. Also, the valuation multiples for both companies are considerably low on a historical basis, but AGCO still seems to be a bit cheaper.
    Aug 11, 2014. 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Faces The Ever-Present 'Then What' Problem [View article]
    A "then what" problem is a good issue to have. Only true innovators encounter it, as a result of high expectations (which Apple has traditionally met). It might hurt a bit in the short term, but Apple won't be down for long.
    Dec 12, 2013. 10:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Bears Are Wrong About Apple [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, Arthur. Couldn't agree more.
    Aug 13, 2013. 09:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo: A Great Value Investment [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, Mayascribe. I am aware of the large amount of insiders that are selling, but I don't think this is to be immediately feared. It is something to keep tabs on and it contributes to the overall analysis, but I think it is overridden by the many strong points I addressed in this article. I could be wrong in this case, but I don't believe that insider selling is always a sign to stay away.
    Aug 12, 2013. 10:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Myriad Genetics Offers A Potential Upside Of More Than 40% [View article]
    As you pointed out, there are some risks (such as the three you mentioned), but I think the potential for upside is greater and that Myriad will handle any obstacles it encounters in an effective manner. The next few earnings reports should be interesting, but I am definitely optimistic.
    Aug 4, 2013. 04:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dorman Products: Strong Fundamentals, Attractive Price [View article]
    Wow...I must admit, an obvious error on my part. GPC was actually one of the four companies comprising 57% of Dorman's revenue. I suppose I was misled by Yahoo Finance's "competitors" page for Dorman. Thanks for pointing that out.
    Jul 26, 2013. 06:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why FedEx Has UPS Beat [View article]
    Thanks for the comments, everyone. Some very important points were brought up, but I have to make something clear. As you can see by just looking out on the street and seeing the heavier presence, UPS is the larger of the corporations. This is largely because it has been around for much longer than FedEx, as James pointed out. For long-term income of the buy and hold type, a whole new analysis would have to be done. But in terms of capital gains available, with consideration of risk and reward, FedEx has the more attractive stock. This is because of the more attractive valuation multiples, and also because of the company's ability to manage speedy growth in a consistently profitable and efficient manner. This is not a short term pick, though. FedEx has shown wonderful growth in recent years, and if it continues to do so, it may be as large as (if not overtake) UPS. There are no surefire indications that either:
    a) UPS will leave this stage of slow and steady growth for exponential and innovative growth, or
    b) FedEx will not be able to continue this somewhat rapid and healthy growth that it has been experiencing in the past few decades.
    May 25, 2013. 01:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment