Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Bryan Waters  

View Bryan Waters' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • 2014's Trash Could Be 2015's Treasure [View article]
    Very nice article! The only thing i'm having a hard time with is the VIX? Has the entire retail investor community been taking the blue pill?
    Dec 27, 2014. 09:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally Does Something Right [View article]
    I may have just swallowed my tongue...Paulo Santos said something nice about Amazon?

    I'm not even going to comment on the substance of the article...I just want to enjoy the moment... :-)
    Sep 22, 2014. 10:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jones Energy Is An Attractive And Overlooked Recent IPO [View article]
    Is there a reason why you are long $JONE yourself?
    Nov 11, 2013. 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer Expounds The Greater Fool Theory On Netflix [View article]
    See Paul? We completely agree! I liked Netflix stock when it wasn't so popular but it is so over-valued at this point my problem I can't guarantee there wouldn't be a greater fool than me if I bought it... :-)
    Oct 22, 2013. 03:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Flails Wildly [View article]
    Paul, we talked about that...devices are break-even...they sell digital content through their devices...thats the point.
    Oct 17, 2013. 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Flails Wildly [View article]
    We'll have to agree to disagree...but when we have this discussion next year or the year after, I want you to remember this conversation ;-)
    Oct 17, 2013. 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Flails Wildly [View article]
    Its a specious comparison. You are picking individual products and claiming they are spread too thin. Thats like saying Microsoft is doing too many things because they have both operating systems and productivity software like Office. Amazon is a retailer. Its that simple. I'm sorry if the fact they sell diapers bothers you.

    And they don't dominate all their direct product lines...they offered digital music after Apple launched iTunes. It will take a while to whittle away at the lead that Apple has in music but Bezos is patient. But music is a high-margin digital product like video, etc.

    The tablets...they are just a channel. Nothing more.

    So keep going...what am I missing?
    Oct 17, 2013. 11:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Flails Wildly [View article]
    But Paul...they are winning. Borders doesn't exist, Barnes and Noble's won't exist soon. Amazon all but invented the practice of show-rooming...while I don't completely agree with the way the intensive use of cash flow to fund capacity, its working.

    Forget the net income charts...give me an example where they are not dominating or at least a serious contender in retail/etail.
    Oct 17, 2013. 11:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Flails Wildly [View article]
    Paul, I usually agree with your articles but in this case you are missing the mark. While I do agree with your facts, I disagree with your conclusions. Amazon is a retailer focusing on physical and digital goods. And no matter how hard I try, I can't see any evidence of flailing at all. Your evidence of flailing is only supported by a comparison of net income with three mature companies where Amazon is clearly a growth company…albeit with a lot of hype built-in to the stock price.

    Amazon is intentionally using cash flow to expand capacity on all fronts for both physical and digital goods. They are building data centers for digital and warehouses/logistics capacity for physical. For physical goods, Amazon is the leading eTailer with more products and more capacity than any other. They started with books, expanded from there and are taking appropriate steps to build out the ability to support future growth. To further leverage their capacity, they outsourced it allowing 3rd party merchants to leverage their digital-shelf space and fulfillment ability. Seems natural to me…no flailing.

    To support their position as a leading book retailer, they expanded to digital goods with eBooks. The kindle provides a channel for these products. Adding digital publishing supports that channel. The digital book publishing effort combined with their already massive online book retail sales were contributors to Borders going out of business and is the reason that Barnes and Noble is struggling.

    Adding digital music and streaming video is not only complementary to their existing physical retail efforts, it leverages the channels they’ve been establishing with the kindle and their apps on iTunes, Android and ROKU.

    Finally, Amazon Web Services essentially monetizes spare capacity in almost all aspects of their business. They no longer have to cover the costs of their servers through seasonal retail cycles, they just sell off extra capacity. They have been so successful at this that Google still doesn’t know how to catch up…

    Seriously…where is the flailing at?
    Oct 17, 2013. 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Has At Least 11% Short-Term Upside [View article]
    I agree completely. With the questionable economy and the changing nature of tech why would it be a surprise that CSCO is winding down parts of its business and switching to newer technologies?

    Very nice article!
    Aug 28, 2013. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: The Story So Far, One Investor's Perspective [View article]
    What part?
    Aug 26, 2013. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: The Story So Far, One Investor's Perspective [View article]
    That's key to this type of investment. I'm in a similar situation with $NFLX...i love the company, love the service but the whole content-based business model combined with the valuation is beyond me...i believe it will be viable for a while but the current price is more than I can deal with...same with $ the company, not the price.
    Aug 26, 2013. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: The Story So Far, One Investor's Perspective [View article]
    Good luck with that...i'd find someway to hedge...
    Aug 26, 2013. 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: The Story So Far, One Investor's Perspective [View article]
    Noted. Thank you for the correction and for your quality article! I definitely appreciated the research you put in...
    Aug 26, 2013. 12:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Major Factor Limiting Facebook's Growth Potential [View article]
    Agreed Chris. They are finally leveraging all the information they have on their user base. I assumed they were finally starting to figure this out when they first announced Open Graph and their Q2 earnings confirm that.

    I've advertised on both Adwords and Facebook and have to say I can control my spend and better target my ads on Facebook's new product. Very nice!

    They didn't create a derivative ad platform but rather have started realizing a social ad platform that really works!
    Aug 12, 2013. 08:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment