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Bryan Wilhaucks

 
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  • BlackBerry's Breakeven Point And Beyond [View article]
    The Q5 isn't available until July per BlackBerry so I consider it announced and not launched until it can be picked up by the consumer.
    Jun 27 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry 10 Sales Estimates Are A Joke [View article]
    I'm long BBRY. I pre-ordered by Z10 from VZW and it'll be home waiting for me when I get home from class. My sell signals are a couple different things:
    1) If on their Earnings CC they don't have an increase in companies going through BES trials than they did last quarter (I forget the number).
    2) If on their Earnings CC they sold less than 6MM devices (including new and old devices) with an ASP of <$225 overall.
    3) If on their Earnings CC they have a cash+cash equivalents+Accounts Receivable of less than 4B.

    Those are my signals.
    Mar 24 01:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry 10 Sales Estimates Are A Joke [View article]
    I think he was saying the numbers won't impress relative to Apple's numbers. 1MM BB10 sales this quarter sounds terrible when you compare it with 48MM Apple phones. Remember that BB10 was only launched in 25% of their market for less than a month (sometimes only days) in each of those for their last quarter. 1MM is above all estimates that I've seen, including estimates from Morgan Stanley with a price target of 22, and Goldman Sachs with a price target of 19.50
    Mar 24 01:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry 10 Sales Estimates Are A Joke [View article]
    Don't forget about about the 1100 Best Buy stores. that's close to 350,000ish.

    The author is right that I didn't go stand in line to get a BB10.... However I'm with Verizon and they don't launch until the 28th.
    People who really know the phone's launch date are those who really follow the stock so we know every detail about the dates etc. Through advertising during march madness, "Takeover Ad" campaigns that start on Monday, and through Word of Mouth over the next month we will see a good steady level of sales. If At&t and Best Buy average 4 sales a day in the US that's over 2MM phones a quarter.
    Mar 24 01:08 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will BB10 Drive Earnings? [View article]
    @John: I can't attest to anything as far as dropped calls, boring looks, etc. I think the iphone 5 itself is sleek physically. I like that I can have widgets on my android. I don't like to bash anything unless it is absolutely terrible.
    I'm switching to the Z10 because of the connectivity it will give me between 3 email accounts, facebook, twitter, linkedin, and whatever else comes along (not sure if google+ is integrated into the BB hub). My android (Motorola Razr Maxx) just can't maintain a smooth and fluid UI when on wifi and using bluetooth and trying to reply to emails. That's when it noticeably lags for me.

    Let me be clear, I'm not saying BB will steal all market share. I'm not bashing Apple or Android.
    I am saying that as more and more people become so connected to the services I mentioned, things like the BB Hub will make BB10 and future devices increasingly popular as more and more people become aware of what it offers.
    Mar 20 09:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will BB10 Drive Earnings? [View article]

    I'd love to share it with anyone and feedback is always welcome. It will only increase the qualtiy of future articles.
    http://bit.ly/YsnGcX...

    Here's a link to it from dropbox. Just save it to your computer and then open it up and you should be good to go. Let me know if you have any questions.

    You may notice that the first few columns have a -29 for the provision for tax line. This is assuming they exercise the -29million tax benefit they still have. I only assumed they exercised it in any scenario that resulted in negative earnings. This was stated in the 3Q Report (see below).
    "The Company’s total unrecognized income tax benefits that, if recognized, would affect the Company’s effective tax rate as at
    December 1, 2012 were $29 million"
    Mar 20 09:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will BB10 Drive Earnings? [View article]
    My assumptions came from a few things, but the basis came from a statement in their 3Q report stating, "During the quarter, RIM shipped approximately 6.9 million BlackBerry smartphones and approximately
    255,000 BlackBerry PlayBook tablets." This totals 7.155MM. I'm assuming 800,000 to 1MM less BB7 smartphones, and about 500,000-600,000 total playbooks. This comes out to ~6.5MM for their 4Q.
    I feel there are 4 points to justify my assumption.
    1) BB10 is not available everywhere, and the BB7 phones are still priced competitively to increase market share and to attract consumers on every level to the BB ecosystem.
    2) Increased marketing and awareness of the Blackberry brand over the last quarter.
    3) It was in fact, a holiday quarter and the BB Playbook was very competitively priced.
    4) Some people bought it on the promise of getting a BB10 update for free pushed to the Playbook.
    Mar 18 11:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will BB10 Drive Earnings? [View article]
    I was not implying to short the stock. That was bad word choice on my part.
    However, if they can't meet the estimates the street is putting out AND they don't show new signs of growth and traction with BB10, then I believe the PPS could take a down turn.
    Mar 18 02:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will BB10 Drive Earnings? [View article]
    1) I was trying to account for a "substantial increase in marketing". As these are not actual numbers, a ~20% (it's actually closer to a23%)increase for marketing and advertising seemed like a middle ground number that was neither aggressive nor conservative. This very well could be a low estimate as you said.

    2) You're absolutely correct. I believe as long as $BBRY shows signs of growth and traction with the new BB10, the EPS in the near term won't mean as much overall.
    Mar 18 02:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Lenovo Can't Afford It, Buying Opportunity Coming [View article]
    It would add some growth back into IBM. And in the years ahead they could get automakers to integrate QNX into vehicles that talk to the systems IBM puts in place that makes traffic move more efficiently through a city. Cars could say exactly how many cars are in each lane and how fast they're moving so that if someone sped up and ran a red light, it could keep the other light from turning green before that car made it through thus avoiding accidents.

    Sounds ridiculous right? Depends on your frame of reference. Add in Google's glasses project and Google's cars driving themselves and it no longer seems unreasonable to wonder if it's possible.
    Mar 12 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Lenovo Can't Afford It, Buying Opportunity Coming [View article]
    ....because consumer computing devices are the future. I never carry my laptop anymore. Only my phone and if I need something bigger/faster/smoother i'll keep my Playbook in my pocket.
    Mar 12 01:38 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Is A Major Short Squeeze Coming? [View article]
    If my phone follows my eyes it'll be spinning in circles so fast it'll explode.
    Mar 11 05:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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