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Bryce Istvan  

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  • Why Betting On The Turnaround Of These Companies Is A Waste [View article]
    Can you please explain your comment "DryShips has no control over Ocean Rig's capital and resources?" It seems to me that, with George in charge of both companies, ORIG can use its payout policies to provide cash flow to DRYS

    As of now, Ocean Rig is planning to initiate a dividend in 2014 and spin off assets into an MLP that will also pay a substantial dividend. This will provide DRYS with unrestricted cash flow.
    Dec 19, 2013. 02:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NPS Pharmaceuticals and Takeda Revise Agreements (Transcript) [View article]
    Long term I think this is a great deal for NPS. Putting the drug in their hands will allow NPS to maximize value and realize economies of scale, especially around marketing and patient data. See my analysis here.
    Mar 19, 2013. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: Is Another 'Dilutive Event' Imminent? [View article]
    Be very careful when talking about MCP-A, the preferred issue. Because it is a mandatory convert, you will receive between 1.66 and 2 shares of MCP on maturity early next year no matter what those shares are worth. If you calculate the preferred at its current price, (~31), subtract the market price of MCP (~9 *2 shares received at conversion), and subtract the remaining dividends of the preferred ($6.875), you will notice that the preferred is trading at a $6.125 premium to a sum of the parts valuation. This means your real yield in negative. See my article from December 2011 for a full explanation The numbers are out of date, but the math remains.
    Jan 18, 2013. 04:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Steve Ballmer wanted to oust Steven Sinofsky and received Bill Gates' blessing to do it, Kara Swisher reports. Preparations for Sinofsky's removal were reportedly ongoing for several weeks, but Microsoft (MSFT -3.4%) chose to wait until the Windows 8 launch was finished. Whether or not the oft-criticized Ballmer wanted to remove a potential rival, there seems to be strong company support for his ostensible goal of improving collaboration between units. Sources: "There was [Sinofsky's] way or no other way." "He picked a lot of fights." (previous: I, II, III[View news story]
    The company went ex-dividend today, so people who bought the stock today aren't going to get the 23cent dividend payable in December. Stocks are expected to drop the amount of the dividend after going ex-div all else being equal (which obviously they weren't in this case).
    Nov 13, 2012. 07:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questcor Drops On Headline Misunderstanding [View article]
    Some additional color from Reuters
    Important to note, Acthar already has orphan drug status in infantile spasms which guarantees market exclusivity through 2017.
    Nov 2, 2012. 01:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NPS Pharmaceuticals: Preparing For Tuesday's Advisory Committee Meeting [View article]
    The NPSP vote came in 12-0 that "benefits of teduglutide outweigh the potential risk in patients with SBS." One voter expressed concerns about the REMS study, but a 10-1 vote approved the submitted plan. The stock was halted all day, but reopened in the after hours to some minor selling. I believe that the FDA comes back with approval and minor, if any, changes to the REMS and a decision well before the Dec. 30 PDUFA. Don't expect a big pop on approval, since it should be all but baked in. However, NPS won't stay out of the news for too long, as they are looking to submit Natpara for approval by mid-2013.
    Oct 16, 2012. 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft (MSFT) will finally launch versions of Office for iOS and Android starting in March 2013, a product manager confirms - past rumors indicated fall launches. The Windows versions of Office 2013 will be available to businesses in December, and consumers by the end of February. The absence of iOS/Android Office apps has allowed upstarts such as Google-acquired Quickoffice to fill the void. No word on whether the apps will be covered by Microsoft's hyped Office subscription plans. Update: Microsoft claims "the information shared by our Czech subsidiary is not accurate," but doesn't explain how. [View news story]
    Microsoft is denying the reports. See the revised linked article. They continue to put a big push behind hardware and I think it's unlikely they give up the competitive advantage that Office affords them.
    Oct 10, 2012. 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Titan Enters Exclusive Talks To Partner Probuphine [View article]
    Now that ttnp is above the series b warrant price of .85, do you believe titan calls them or investors exercise in the short term? I believe they expire Oct. 10th. If they are exercised, how far would the cash take them through 2013?
    Sep 14, 2012. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Prostate Pipeline Revisited [View article]
    Thanks for your comments and additional information. I agree that these drugs will not give spectacular results when given in late stage cancers. Most appear to be in the 3-5 month life extension range. Just like any cancer, the earlier treatment is given, the greater the efficacy, so I see pushing Zytiga and the other drugs into pre-chemo patients as a positive.

    That said, I agree with both of you that the effects, positive and negative, of earlier or combined treatment need to be studied much more. Ted, thanks for the information about ongoing trials in the area. The fact that MDVN is being proactive in their research is a good sign and, in my opinion, shows a clinical team that is on top of what needs to be done.

    In terms of combo treatments with Provenge, there does appear to be some scientific rationale, especially since Xtandi doesn't require prednisone. However, I think a roadblock is going to continue to be cost. No insurance companies are going to reimburse for both until there is significant evidence that life extension is dramatically higher when used together.
    Sep 4, 2012. 11:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rosetta Genomics Roller Coaster Ride [View article]
    Update on the article, I never took a long position as, by the time a lot of the volatility died down, the company announced it was planning on doing yet another capital raise. That was completed today at $5/share. Now that the company has removed that headwind, it's likely the huge downward slide over the last month will slow or stop. That being said, it is concerning that the company felt the need to raise another $30 million. This tells me they do not anticipate becoming cash flow positive for a while, raising concerns about how much traction their tests are getting even after Medicare approval. I would take a wait and see approach with this one until they hit that "inflection point" with sales. You will lose some upside, but avoid what could still be large long term downside.
    Aug 3, 2012. 06:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DONE-Dreon? [View article]
    Good article Stephen and I agree with the conclusion. I'm interested to see if all the DNDN bulls come out of the woodwork against you like they have with every other anti-Dendreon article, including mine, or if the negative sales growth shifts sentiment.
    Jul 31, 2012. 12:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: Don't Let 52-Week Lows Scare You Away [View article]
    Are you referring to the preferred here? Not sure what you mean by "a big discount to par" as the preferred converts to 2 shares of common if the stock is below $50 on 3/1/2014. (Conversion ratio drops if share price is higher) See the article I wrote on it back in December (note the numbers are 7 months old).

    I am long MCP here, and have kept an eye on MCP.A, but watch the spread between it and MCP. Current "book value" of the preferred = 2 shares of MCP ($34.76) + $9.625 remaining dividends =44.385
    Jul 27, 2012. 07:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Grants Dynavax Regular Review For Heplisav [View article]
    Nobody ever lost money taking gains.
    What is the timeline on an EMA, similar to the FDA 10 month? Do they have an opportunity for a priority review in that market?

    I was surprised with the market's initial reaction to the CEO stepping down, especially the Jefferies price target drop that followed. Personally, I saw it as a CEO doing the rare thing of what it best for the company, rather than himself. If they can bring in someone with a proven track record of commercialization or, better yet in the eyes of the market, takeovers there could be a nice pop.

    As usual, thanks for your great articles and responsiveness.
    Jun 26, 2012. 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Grants Dynavax Regular Review For Heplisav [View article]
    Hey Ted,

    Good call on DVAX. I found the stock based on your articles was able to get in well below the secondary price at the beginning of May. However, I closed the position today partly because of the standard review. Do you see any catalysts for the stock between now and February, or is it likely to be dead money until approval?
    Jun 26, 2012. 05:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Week [View article]
    The Surface is not for the "value" customer. It's targeted at enterprise where iPads don't have big inroads, and at people who are looking for performance. The Surface Pro will be able to run everything your Windows laptop can. An iPad can't do that. It seems to me that if it works like a laptop it should be priced like a laptop. Customers will be willing to pay for it.
    Jun 22, 2012. 08:56 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment