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  • Beazer Home's Debt Deal Reflects Deteriorating Homebuilder Fundamentals [View article]
    If the bond market is willing to give them money at under 6% they should borrow as much as they can while they can. If rates were to ever rise they would be bankrupt. They are being smart. Your article makes no sense they have no ability to deleverage. They have to borrow cheaply and attempt to build there way out of this position while rates are low. Same with Hov. Both of these companies would be bankrupt if fed funds were 3% and not zero. If they are lucky they can build shareholder equity back up some while rates are low so they can stick around.
    Apr 11 08:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings' Valuation Part 4: SRe Holding, Sears Re, And REMIC Early 2014 Update [View article]
    Interesting that SHLD stopped buying back stock in 2011 and hasn't since even with the low stock price when they used to buy back in the 150's. Why do they not just close everything down now and liquidate? Is it because they can get higher prices by doing it slowly? Like easier to negotiate sale if you still in business? IDK.
    Mar 21 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings' Valuation Part 4: SRe Holding, Sears Re, And REMIC Early 2014 Update [View article]
    What are the 100 analysts missing? And how many years will it take for them to unwind the value and what will be the losses over the mean time? Thanks. And maybe they are right, but they also have to say there is value or the vendors will pull credit and the business is shut down overnight. Actually based on the theory that the value is in the real estate, then that would be a good thing! Can you explain why they don't just close all stores tomorrow and sell everything? Just wondering. Seems like the sooner they do that the sooner they save $2 million a day in losses.
    Mar 21 07:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings' Valuation Part 4: SRe Holding, Sears Re, And REMIC Early 2014 Update [View article]
    Tangible book value is now negative $800 million. If they keep losing $700 million a year over the next 3 years tangible book will be headed toward negative $3 billion. The business has no value. So even if they sold all the real estate for a very generous $8 billion over stated book over the next 3 years that leaves only leaves $50/share the current share price. So no upside over 3 years. Discount that for 3 years unwind time at 10% and you get a fair value in the $30's. And who knows what costs there might be with unwinding the pension funds or closing down the business. The only 2 analysts that cover the stock have $25 targets. If they could push a button and liquidate everything right away maybe there is value. But imagine the years and expense of liquidating this thing?? It is probably a gold mine if the business was making money while they did that, but its not its losing $2 million/day.
    Mar 21 07:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: Not Too Long Until We See $30? [View article]
    I shorted today. DRAM FLASH pricing is back to when MU was $18's. Looks bad. $22's coming I think.
    Mar 10 12:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: The Slog Continues. Next Stop Dividend Elimination [View article]
    20% RRR???? Yellen pushes this down to 12% and you get $6.40 today. Also Nat gas prices are $1 higher that is another $160 million a year straight to the bottom line. Nat gas prices should stay over $4 for the next few years. that is big for this company I think.
    Mar 4 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Coal Space Turning? [View article]
    Also coal stocks trade with the materials sector and global minors. RIO and BHP have been strong lately while the market has been weak. Maybe after an 18 month decline the mining sector is finally turning up. Silver was up 5 days in row last week. Havnt seen that in forever.
    Feb 8 11:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Coal Space Turning? [View article]
    Coal stocks and natural gas stocks have the most improved fundamentals over the last 2 months. But the stocks have not moved yet and in the case of coal stocks they are down 10-25% already in 2014 and are at bottom of charts. It is a great time to buy. In a few months the price of coal will start going up and analysts will start upgrading.
    Feb 8 11:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Count On High Natural Gas Prices To Hold [View article]
    Until we see cap ex return, the price could just keep rising and rising. What is to stop it? LNG exports start up in few years. Big deal just announced with Japan today. Are e&p co's going to hedge their stuff when they know it will be higher in couple years.
    Jan 30 07:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2014 Homebuilder Breakout Begins Early With A Very Bullish D.R. Horton [View article]
    Does anybody have any idea what earnings would be if they used last in first out on the price of the land they are building on. Are magins inflated right now because of past years write downs? I wonder if earnings would really be this good in the future at current sales pace and prices?? If margins are inflated then these stocks have no justifiable upside in my opinion more than 10-20%
    Jan 30 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Count On High Natural Gas Prices To Hold [View article]
    We need more drilling for natural gas or the 700 BCF deficit will not be closed and then another winter like this one and we will run out of natural gas and it will go to $50 or $100. Are E&p co's going to bother to take the risk of drilling if they can't hedge it for $5? I don't know. maybe a few will. But it may take $5.25 or $5.50 to bring on the large amount of drilling that will be necessary to rebuild the 700 BCF deficit. Co's are putting dollars to more profitable Shale oil drilling. They don't care about nat gas anymore. They might need to see $6+ NG to care. I don't know. Thoughts?
    Jan 30 06:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • James River Coal: High Risk For Bankruptcy Within 2 Quarters [View article]
    With Nat gas in the 5's coal prices could go up quite a bit... Stock could go to $2 . I bought today. $1.17 The coal index is way down on the year when really its prospects have reversed 100% because Nat Gas storage will be in short supply for as far as you can see.
    Jan 29 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 2014 Homebuilder Breakout Begins Early With A Very Bullish D.R. Horton [View article]
    What you need to understand, is that when a stock moves 10% in a day like DHI. That is a whole years worth of gains. Homebuilders are priced off of a multiple of book value. They an only compound book value so fast. DHI was a buy before yesterday... But now the opportuinity is gone. Without dumber fool buyer. That is why whenever home builders go up too fast on technical trading patterns...they almost always come back down.
    Jan 29 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Set To Soar, Target Price $17 [View article]
    Author overlooks $1.25 billion in dillution. The fact that they put the company up for sale and there were no takers. 3 years of future losses, so you have to discount the Authors price target back 3 years and further reduce target price by expected out year losses. Using a 10% RRR and taking into account the dillution that gets you back to single digits. This is why most analyst target prices are in the single digits and why any futher rally will probably be short lived or stall out
    Jan 20 02:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Stocks Are A Good Speculation Play At These Levels [View article]
    PAAS yielding 5% and CDE are great buys here I think. They are down so much and pricing in gold and silver much lower. And they have almost no net debt. These stocks were just 30-40% higher month ago.
    Oct 14 05:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
83 Comments
117 Likes