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  • GeoInvesting Presents Additional Evidence To Support Assertions On AmTrust [View article]
    cxx,

    yes, that is how they did it.
    Jan 16, 2014. 08:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GeoInvesting Presents Additional Evidence To Support Assertions On AmTrust [View article]
    they are making basic accounting mistakes, trying to match up apples to oranges, and insinuating some problem when they don't match up.
    Jan 14, 2014. 09:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GeoInvesting Presents Additional Evidence To Support Assertions On AmTrust [View article]
    The life settlements were bought dirt cheap and were well vetted. I don't agree with their whole approach in analyzing them. First of all, each policy should really be evaluated on its own, rather than the same method to the whole group. AFSI has used very conservative measures for the whole group in an abundance of caution in my opinion.
    Jan 14, 2014. 09:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GeoInvesting Presents Additional Evidence To Support Assertions On AmTrust [View article]
    Interesting trading around the timing of this article. Yesterday, AFSI was way down, over 7% (+4% more after hours), on no news. Then today, after this article was published, it is up substantially.
    The issue here is that the author started with a view, "AFSI's reported results appeared "too good to be true" as the company grew rapidly without a misstep along the way" and then sought to find facts to support that view, rather than gathering the facts and basing the view on the facts.
    AFSI results aren't "too good to be true" anymore than Warren Buffett's are. Like Buffett, AFSI has done very well by purchasing companies and assets at very steep discounts (in AFSI's case usually distressed situations).
    The author admittedly is just speculation, as the author continues to use words like "believe", "suspect", and other similar terms. See the difference when the author affirmatively states as fact problems with Chinese companies, without any such qualifying language.
    The author does not have a basis to challenge the reserving, and even the author admits they don't have enough information to reach a definitive conclusion, they just have suspicions or beliefs about it.
    My review indicates that AFSI is not underreserved and that the life settlements are not overstated, particularly because they were purchased at such dirt cheap prices. Having read through the article, I don't see any basis for the conclusions reached in it, the logic and reasoning are convoluted, hard to follow, and don't make sense. The author appears to not understand how the accounting is done, comparing apples to oranges and mixing and matching figures from different accounts and entities that don't necessarily relate to each other.
    Jan 14, 2014. 02:23 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings: A Turnaround Is Unlikely [View article]
    Sears is a real estate play, with a bonus kicker if its online/scaled down store strategy works. So, you are analyzing the company based on a strategy that is not being pursued. The CEO is not selling shares.
    Jan 14, 2014. 01:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holding Corporation- Addressing Serious Problems Heading Into 2014 [View article]
    Bruce is not stuck in a losing position, he can sell his shares anytime.
    Jan 14, 2014. 03:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Sellers Are Mistaken About AmTrust Financial Services [View article]
    Well, geoinvesting evidently did not believe they had a basis to conclude AFSI is underreserved, as they did not put that in their report, and they stretched pretty far for weak points to put in their report.
    I would be interested to hear your analysis that AFSI is underreserved, because I haven't seen any evidence that it is.
    The Luxemburg reinsurer was just a simple whiff by geoinvesting (and who knows did this article for geoinvesting), which misunderstood the accounting. Geoinvestor delivered zero body blows to anyone on anything concerning AFSI, in my opinion.
    Underreserving is a different issue, it is a judgment call, and need to be watched closely with any insurance company. I think AFSI has reserved just fine, but always willing to look at that and challenge it.
    Jan 13, 2014. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sino-Forest Teaches Us A Valuable Lesson [View article]
    due diligence, namely facts and reasoning.
    you certainly can't rely on auditors.
    Jan 4, 2014. 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Raise a Glass to China New Borun [View article]
    no.
    Jan 4, 2014. 01:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China New Borun IPO: All the Booze in China [View article]
    no
    Jan 4, 2014. 01:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VisionChina Media: A Stock That Defies Logic [View article]
    you think Nasdaq stocks don't get manipulated? think again.
    Dec 30, 2013. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VisionChina Media: A Stock That Defies Logic [View article]
    Chinese stocks are inevitably owned or backed by Chinese government and its officials, who also own and/or control the Chinese banks. Think about that and follow the logic and shouldn't be too hard to figure out. Remember when the Chinese banks provided the funding to buy out previous suspect chinese companies trading on U.S. exchanges? As long as large portions of the shares are owned and/or controlled (indirectly but for their benefit) by chinese government officials and their cohorts, most of the money goes to them. Just another reason they call China a kleptocracy.
    Dec 30, 2013. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VisionChina Media: A Stock That Defies Logic [View article]
    The fundamental value of VISN is virtually nothing, so I don't think so.
    Dec 30, 2013. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VisionChina Media: A Stock That Defies Logic [View article]
    definitely.
    Dec 30, 2013. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VisionChina Media: A Stock That Defies Logic [View article]
    I doubt there is any insitutional buying of this stock.
    Dec 30, 2013. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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