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  • Muddy Waters Requires a Leap of Faith they don’t Deserve [View instapost]
    disclosure: I am short ONP.
    Aug 11, 2010. 02:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orient Paper: Key Pieces of Evidence for Fraud [View article]
    Modie:
    What are you talking about? Are you being deliberately dishonest or is there some other explanation?

    The percentage by which Sears revenue dropped was similar, in fact slightly higher, than the percentage by which the number of employees dropped:
    2006 revenue: 53 mil
    2007 revenue: 50 mil
    2008 revenue: 46 mil
    2009 revenue: 44 mil

    Employees as of Feb. 3, 2007: 352,000
    Employees as of Feb. 3, 2008: 337,000
    employees as of Jan. 31, 2009: 324,000
    employees as of Jan. 30, 2010: 323,000

    this data is directly from the 10k's of Sears.
    Aug 11, 2010. 02:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orient Paper: Key Pieces of Evidence for Fraud [View article]
    apolo:
    first, you changed my question to an easier one. But second, ONP does not report any decrease in their price of production that would account for it being able to triple revenue while suffering the contraction I referred to. Not even anywhere close.

    Modie:
    (apprentices - do you mean parenthesis?). Your appear to abandon your point that Sears reduced employees while increasing revenues and you didn't even claim that they did that anywhere near the scale ONP claims to have done. Anyway, seems like I put this issue to bed and you have conceded. Good luck to you!
    Aug 10, 2010. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Orient Paper to Restate Its SEC Filings and Disavow Its Press Releases and Websites? [View instapost]
    also, yes I agree that ONP's own SEC filings are inconsistent on several matters that I view as significant. I have tried to detail many of those in my posts.
    Aug 10, 2010. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Orient Paper to Restate Its SEC Filings and Disavow Its Press Releases and Websites? [View instapost]
    CSMhater;
    Orient Paper is actually a U.S. holding company. We call it a Chinese company because It's main operating entity is a Chinese company. However, Orient Paper does not own this operating entity, but controls it through a variety of contracts, which makes it what is referred to as a "Variable Interest Entity" and allows it to consolidate its financial reporting.
    Yes, the SEC can investigate any company trading on any of the exchanges here in the U.S.
    I understand your concerns about the investigation and your greater faith in the SEC. I just don't know and would have to see the report. In fact, I would rather not rely on either of them. What I l look to is the evidence they present, and the extent I can verify it, so I can follow up and make my own conclusions.
    To add more fuel to the fire concerning Loeb & Loeb, Whalehaven Capital is a big investor in many of these PIPES. Came across this looking at LPH, another China small cap reverse merger, in which Whalehaven had shares and bonds. Whalehaven also loans money. Whalehaven gets into a fair bit of litigation in these matters. Interesting to see Loeb & Loeb representing Whalehaven.
    But, yes, to answer your question, the SEC can get involved in they want to, absolutely.
    Aug 10, 2010. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orient Paper Inc. (ONP): Does It Add Up? Questions for Orient Paper's Investigators. [View instapost]
    drjohn35:
    There is no reason to think that Orient Paper is overstaffed at all. ONP never claimed it was overstaffed. ONP has never stated that reducing staff has been a factor at all.
    Paper manufacturing is a capital intensive business and labor is normally a small % of the costs, 4-8%. Why? because machinery does most of the work. How about at ONP? Orient Paper lacks the automated process that is done by modern machinery because they don't have it. Instaed, they have people doing work that would normally be done by machines (at a more efficient and, over time, cheaper rate). If Orient Paper is producing less revenue per employee, as you claim, that is the most likely explanation why. Additionally, Orient Paper producing less revenue per employee, as you state, would be another poor sign regardings its ability to compete or to grow the revenue and have the margins that it claims.
    Aug 10, 2010. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orient Paper: Loeb's Not the Right Firm for the Investigation [View article]
    apolo:
    Thanks for the kind words. Just had a nice vacation recently, but should have another one soon, I agree. Also, I am very well rested, although it does appear that I have never needed near as much sleep as most people seem to need.
    Hope you have a good vacation and are well rested as well.

    Aug 10, 2010. 04:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orient Paper: Key Pieces of Evidence for Fraud [View article]
    Modie:
    Wow, I can see why you are confused with Orient Paper. You really need to do your research if you are going to make these comments. Are you referring to the Kmart that went bankrupt in 2002? I assume you are. It purchased Sears Holding at the end of 2004 and reported its first year of years sales increase of .5% in 2009 and the second such increase since 2001.

    Apolo:
    let me try again - decrease in types of paper sold, decrease in manufacturing facilities, decrease in number of production lines, decrease in number of employees, decrease in R&D, decrease in advertising and promotion expenditures (although not large in the first place), substantial decrease in land leased and/or owned for operations, and so on. The company is contracting. At the same time, ONP is reporting tripling revenue and quadrupling net profit. And you think that is possibe on this planet in the paper manufacturing business in China? Pray tell how ONP has accomplished this miraculous feat? ONP certainly hasn't provided a clue on how it has or, excuse me, they have made some false representations that were then contradicted by other representations they made. Specifically, it was somehow supposed to be occuring due to cutting edge, advanced technology beyond everyone else that was responsible for incredible efficiency and giant sized margins well beyond other companies. How disappointing it was to learn they have no R&D facilities and no R&D, unless you counted several line workers learning how to operated the digital photo paper equipment.

    seasaw -

    Again your arguments are NOT evidences of massive revenue fraud.

    As for the contract - it features a paper order for the amount of 100M RMB (~15M$), with name, specification, quantity, unit price and total in RMB (Chinese yuan).

    You can decide that it's fabricated of course. You can decide everything you see in this video is fabricated. Doug is not Doug, the CEO is not the real one, and all the employees/trucks have been added using photoshop. It's your right.

    A paper order for what tuype of paper? Was ONP ordering the paper from someone or were they ordering from ONP? If they were ordering from ONP, who was ordering (chinese name and english name if you can)? What was the amount? When was it to be delivered (if more than one order, the amounts and dates of order)? What were the unit prices? What was the total? Was ONP to deliver or were they picking it up? (that is a priceles one by ONP that almost every customers picks up the paper from them, almost as good as the one that it doesn't matter if you store the raw materials outside exposed to the elements because it ends up getting processed in a vat of water).

    I saw very few employees at the facility (loved the pictures of the employees cutting the paper by hand - real efficient and leads to a lot of volume). I saw very few trucks at the facility (loved the guys unloading by hand, throwing bags down to the guy below him - very efficient and leads to high production). I saw very few production lines and the ones we saw were small - it was, according to Doug, a compete tour and he took pictures of everything - but those production lines we saw couldn't produce a fraction of the approximately 600 tons a day ONP is claiming - they couldn't produce a tenth of that.
    But, hey, that is just my opinion. Don't pay any attention to me. Evaluate for yourself. Best of luck!
    Aug 10, 2010. 04:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orient Paper Inc. (ONP): Does It Add Up? Questions for Orient Paper's Investigators. [View instapost]
    drjohn35:
    let me see if I can summarize for you in one sentence as simply as possible: Orient Paper inc from their own representations in SEC filings, press releases, website(s), etc. - reduced number of different types of paper they sold, reduced number of manufacturing facilities, reduced number of production lines, reduced number of employees, substantially reduced the property they lease and/or own for their operations, reduced the number of customers AND they are claiming during the same period of time to have tripled revenue and quadrupled net profit - I don't think so. But if you think so, more power to you. Good luck to you!
    Aug 9, 2010. 11:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orient Paper: Key Pieces of Evidence for Fraud [View article]
    apolo:
    are you kidding on the contracts in the video? We don't have any idea what they are for at all or even that they are real. Not one ounce of detail in the video. Nothing about who the contract was with, what is was for, how much it was for, nothing. Contract could be to buy jets for all we know.
    Would be a very easy exercise for the company to establish that the revenue is real, if it was. They haven't, which is very problematic.
    You should read the SEC filings, the website(s), the press releases, look at the videos, readd all the cites in my articles. It is very clear and obvious that this company has repeatedly made false statements. It is clearly contracting - over time it makes less types of paper, It has fewer manufacturing facilities, it has fewer production lines, it has fewer employees, it has substantially reduced the land it leases and/or owns for its operations and it repeatedly contradicts itself. But, hey, if you want to believe that it tripled revenue during that same time period, you are welcome to and welcome to vote on it with your purchase of your stock. Good luck!

    Aug 9, 2010. 10:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orient Paper: Loeb's Not the Right Firm for the Investigation [View article]
    Bxwnski:
    just go to MSN.com, click on the tab for money, enter ONP where it says "name or symbol(s)" next to the get quote button, then click on SEC filings, click on the 8k filed on 10/8/2009. Here is a link: moneycentral.msn.com/i....
    Aug 9, 2010. 10:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orient Paper: Key Pieces of Evidence for Fraud [View article]
    Apolo:
    I do not remember you providing a single bit of evidence showing Orient paper is a real business doing the revenue you claim.
    You have not, in my opinion, provided any analysis of the company or the business, and certainly not a good one, in my opinion.
    Your predictions are nonsense. Noone is any good at predicting the price of a stock two months out.
    Aug 9, 2010. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orient Paper: Loeb's Not the Right Firm for the Investigation [View article]
    How's this for another prediction;
    1. law firm find that ONP made little to nothing, or a net loss, in 2009. (CEO likely found to have embezzled, made transaction from company bank accounts to personal bank accounts, and let go, as well as possibly other executives).
    2. ONP is then found not to meet the net profit performance threshold requirements found in the capital raise (PIPE) agreement signed in october of 2009.
    3. As a result of ONP not meeting the net profit requirements, the original investors in the capital raise get the 3 million shares (or a portion thereof) that were escrowed in case ONP did not make the target.
    4. The original investors, hedge funds and other investment firms, may be short at this point and may use the 3 million shares they receive (or a portion thereof) to cover their shorts.
    Could the original investors have known ONP was a fraud? Could they have then organized the pump by the street.com writers, by wallstreetmedia.com, by the analysts Roth Capital, Hudson Securities, Harbinger, and others? Could they then have sold their shares as the stock price rose? Could they have then shorted the stock and paid or other incentivized Muddy Waters to reveal the truth about ONP - that its revenue was fraudulently inflated?
    Of course, I have no idea and all of this is pure speculation. But, of course, if you know a company is fraud, it may be possible to do all this if you make a securities purchase agreement where you get 8.3 million shares for $5 million dollars, where you get 3 million shares, or a portion thereof, if net profit of the company fails to meet performance thresholds, and, as part of the agreement, 3 new independent directors are appointed that now make up the majority on the board of directors.
    Is truth sometimes stranger than fiction?
    That leaves the question as to who is pumping the stock now on seekingalpha.com and yahoo message board? well, whoever is holding the bag would be a likely candidate. It could be the CEO, if he really owns his shares, or whoever has control of them if he doesn't. Those shares are the subject of a lockup agreement in the purchase agreement of the capital raise, so they can't be sold until October of 2010. it could also be supported by some of the pumpers who may have been unwitting pawns in the fraud and may still be true believers. It could also be a smattering of retail investors who are in denial. Whoever it it, they certainly lack the size, power and force of the original pumping machine of the street.com, wallstreetmedia.com, the analysts, and other groups.
    Of course, all this is just speculation or one theory as to how the facts fit together. There may be other better theories. As you can see, I keep seeing holes in my theories and, as a result, try to develop better ones.


    Aug 9, 2010. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orient Paper and the Unfortunate Shady Corners of Wall Street [View article]
    Hermanbrut:
    The problem is that Jamz does no analysis or makes no points. She has theories about some process but fails to show that any of the names that were used by Muddy Waters or the others are the wrong names. If you or her read the SEC filings, you would see that they get the right names.
    Furthermore, the article supports ONP, but does not provide a single bit of evidence or analysis to show that Orient Paper's representations about their revenue are correct.
    Aug 9, 2010. 12:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orient Paper and the Unfortunate Shady Corners of Wall Street [View article]
    Modie:
    Please don't insult me again but making false statements. I clearly never said that I wouldn't help you because you disagree with me. I don't know why you would make such a false statement and then call me arrogant based on your false statement.
    If you disagree with a point, I made, then you can state your disagreement and the basis why. But to call my point lame, especially when it is not, is just insulting, especially whan I was responding to a question of yours and indicated I was just guessing.
    Anyway, of course, it is reasonable for Muddy Waters to recede in as a reaction to death threats, threats of bodily harm, publication of personal information, including their addresses and phone numbers, as well as their parents, with exhortations to violence against them, continued verbal attacks, and so on. You, yourself, had added to it by calling them "parasites", feeding of other fears. You clearly have no basis to make this accusation if you had read their report.
    So, please, spare me the pretense that you don't make personal attacks and my response is to just your disagreeing. Don't go around calling people "parasites" and call people's arguments "lame". I got these just going up a few comments here, without going through the rest of your posts for the rest of the comments.
    I don't remember who it was, but the person I asked if "English was the second language" was a legitimate question to see if I could help the person because they were clearly having a very difficult time with the language.
    When the person said they were insulted by the comment, I promptly apologized. I didn't put up some defense that I knew wasn't true. I still believe that English was probably not the person's first language but they didn't want to admit it and just wanted to act insulted.
    Aug 9, 2010. 12:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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