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  • Orient Paper: Loeb's Not the Right Firm for the Investigation [View article]
    Orient Paper did not report that they were trying to disprove Muddy Waters allegations. Instead, the new members of the board of directors, who are the members of the audit committee, stated they were investigating the allegations by Muddy Waters - in other words, investigating whether management was committting fraud. This is not typically done if management can answer the fraud allegations satisfactorily to the audit committee or if the allegations can be dismissed out of hand.
    Of course, there may be additional motivation because the new members were put in by the investors in the recent capital raise, who have a make good provision, were 3,000,000 shares have been escrowed if Orient Paper does not make a required net profit of, I believe, approximatley $18 million. If Orient Paper has a net profit of $0, the investors get the entire 3 million shares. Can anyone say "bingo"?
    Aug 5, 2010. 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outlook for the Chinese Paper Industry [View instapost]
    One correction on a typo: International paper has approximately 25 paper mills in Asia, not 28.
    Aug 5, 2010. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orient Paper: Key Pieces of Evidence for Fraud [View article]
    1. When you want to show fraud, you don't show a turnover of 80%: Huh? My point is that, based on studying the paper industry and other paper companies, I don't believe you can change paper mixes and have an 80% turnover of customers and obtain a 56% rise in revenue. Why would you do that? People trying to perpetrate a fraud run into all kinds of difficulties not making mistakes in trying to make up stuff that appears to be true. I have no need to explain it since, in my analysis, I don't believe it is possible or that it occured. Muddy Waters speculated that it is common tactic in fraud - you can read there report for their explanation. You certainly have provided an rebuttal to their explanation.

    2. No resignation by the CEO? This is evidence that there is no fraud? Are you kidding me? In my opinion, in the most of the frauds I have seen, the CEO hadn't resigned in a comparable stage to this. Even if they had, it means nothing. In my opinion, the CEO had not resigned at a comparable stage in Enron either - it appeared to me that he hung on and denied the allegations far longer than this. Means nothing anyway though.

    3. which bio? When they were OPAI, the bio on the website said he became Chairman of hte Board and General manager of Orient Paper Inc. in 1990. I think the fact that Orient Paper can't keep their own statements straight (often people not telling the truth have a hard time staying consistent) is a good reason to doubt them. See link at www.orientalpapercorpo....

    Pre-release of earnings: I thought that was terrible to pre-release earnings at the same time that you claim it is necessary to hire a law firm to investigate allegations of fraud against management. ONP has a history of issuing press releases that have no basis in reality whatsoever. Want an example: In 2008, ONP claimed they were building a 2 million square metre facility that would have a production capacity of 1.2 million pounds by 2010 and revenue would reach $1.3 billion by 2010. Orient Paper either is not telling the truth or has an inability to separate fantasy from reality. See link at www.packaging-online.c....
    Having any doubts yet? They are giving guidance now at what, about $18 million for the year? How about another link from 2008 where they claim net income will be $160 million to $230 million in 2010? See
    In other words, I would be surprised if the CEO said or did anything. It wouldn't make it credible to me just because it would be outrageous to do. By the way, I find those types of arguments to be incredibly unpersuasive. Read Hitler and other propagandist where they explain how that type of reasoning can be used to make big lies to people that they then believe.
    Again, ONP has a history of making prediction don't that happen. My opinion is that it fits the standard mold of the pump and dump scams.

    Orient Paper has a history of providing press releases to pump the stock and the information in the press
    Aug 5, 2010. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orient Paper: Key Pieces of Evidence for Fraud [View article]
    Why are you quite sure that Deloitte will clean up any fraud accusation? It is only their financial advisory services that are being hired. Loeb & Loeb is doing the investigation.
    Also, I have no idea where the price will be when and I don't think you do either or frankly anyone. Of course, any price prediction, including yours, could end of being correct but it appears that you are just shamelessly pumping the stock.
    Aug 5, 2010. 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orient Paper and the Unfortunate Shady Corners of Wall Street [View article]
    The problem with this article is that it provides no a single bit of evidence that Muddy Waters or the other "short sellers" have made a single inaccurate or false statement about Orient Paper Inc. or any other company.
    If their statements, which are pretty specific, were false, then you would expect the company and this poster would easily be able to show that.
    Instead, this author just assumes slander. Indeed, Muddy Waters and the other "short sellers" she refers to provide the kind of detailed, factual information that one would expect from those disagreeing with them if they could provide it.
    If Muddy Waters claims were false, you would think ONP could easily dismiss them and would not take them seriously. Instead, the Board of Directors of Orient Paper Inc. have taken the allegations so seriously, they have reported that they have hired a law firm to "investigate Muddy Water's allegations", not to refute them as this author states. If is management that is accused of the fraud. It is the 3 new directors of the board who form the audit committee that hired the law firm. If management had been able to provide satisfactory responses to the audit committee when questioned about the fraud, why would it be necessary for the audit committee to hire a law firm to investigate fraud allegations against management?
    This article is an example of poor reasoning. First, instead of showing any evidence to support the author's claims, the author uses insinuation and attacks people's character and background. This is known as the logical fallacy of 'ad hominen".
    Then the author makes another logical mistake. Somehow, in this author's mind, a company hires a law firm to do an independent investigation because they believe there is no concerns that fraud occured. Obviously, the reason a board of directors would hire a law firm to investigate allegations of fraud by management is when they are concerns about whether fraud is occuring.
    Aug 5, 2010. 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Muddy Waters Requires a Leap of Faith they don’t Deserve [View instapost]
    Defeat for what? You ask for cites and I provide them. For some reason, you keep ignoring them.
    I have already done 2 instablogs on ONP on Orient Paper based on it own representations in its SEC filings and on its website. a
    I have also done a 3rd one on the outlook for the Chinese Paper Industry.
    Aug 5, 2010. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orient Paper Inc. (ONP): Does It Add Up? Questions for Orient Paper's Investigators. [View instapost]
    I am certainly not suggesting you or anyone else short this stock. And, certainly don't do anything based on anything I have said. For any investment decision, do your own due diligence and work and make your own conclusions.
    It appears that you haven't done the due diligence and work to make any investment decision on ONP. I respect that. But it also makes your conclusory views not particularly worthwhile.
    I have no burden of proof whatsoever. I am not an accuser, I am just bringing to light facts, evidence, and, I beileve, sound reasoning therefrom. Particularly as their appears to be no end to people pumping this stock with misinfomration. My articles are based on ONP's representations in their SEC filngs and websites and the videos of their facilities by their promoters. It is not based on ONP, not on me or anyone else.
    I believe I see the reality of the situation and I think you are making conclusions by imagining in your mind that there could be reasonable explanations and theoretical possibilities without having done the work necessary to reach any opinion worth giving. I think Orient Paper has the duty of establishing that there revenue is correct. i think the fact that they haven't speaks volumes.
    You are certainly entitled to your opinion.
    My goal here is explorative. I am hoping that others will provide additional facts and evidence and sound reasoning therefrom, whether consistent or contradictory to my view, so that more infomration comes to light.
    The bottom line is that you have just your conclusions, without presenting any facts, evidence or support therefrom. Conclusory statements are not particular helpful or informative.
    Aug 5, 2010. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orient Paper: Key Pieces of Evidence for Fraud [View article]
    I posted a instablog: Outlook for the Chinese Paper Market: Not Too Rosy.
    The interview was recently. What analysts think paper demand is robust? Where did he say paper demand was robust? Also, I think it is important to look at the specific numbers, rather than just a general statement like "paper demand is robust". Paper demand is certainly robust compared to the falloff that occurred at the bottom of the downturn. It is certainly not robust in light of the large overcapacity. Comments like demand is robust often are very informative without the accompanying data.
    Aug 5, 2010. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orient Paper Inc. (ONP): Does It Add Up? Questions for Orient Paper's Investigators. [View instapost]
    You are changing my words. I didn't say major manufacturer, although ONP is claiming revenue of over 100 million for paper. I said more than tripling sales and reducing head count by over 30%. I don't think you will find it with a major, medium, or minor manufacturer, and if you do, it will likely not be in paper and we will find either an apparent or easy to find explanation.
    I guess fraud doesn't mean fraud. A false representation that one has comprehensive research facilities when one doesn't is not fraud? A false representation that one has a 37 member R&D team when one doesn't have one is not fraud?
    You are entitled to your opinion. I certainly have done a great deal of research. I simply don't believe you have any basis to call it shaky. I have look at all ONP's SEC filings and their website. Those filings and that website are to me filings that you only find with a fraud, not with any legitimate company. I have studied paper mills and paper manufacturing, including viewing videos and pictures of numerous paper mills and manufactureres. I have reviewed the documentation and specifications required for not only the paper equipment but also the machinery and process for all phases of a paper mill. To me, in my review, Orient Paper does not appear to be close to be able to be doing what it claims. You can speculate all you want about some possibility or reasonably explanation but if I see a very thin person that is under 5 feet tall, i am very confident in forming an opinion that they weigh under 300 pounds. You could dog me all you want with theoretical arguments and the possibility of reasonable explanations for why she weighs over 300 lbs. You may even be right. However, you would not convince me as in my experience very thin people under 5 feet tall don't weight over 300 lbs.
    When you come up with evidence, facts and sound reasoning therefrom that Orient Paper Inc. is making the revenue it claims, then I will be all ears to listen to see if I am somehow wrong. But in the meantime, you are whistling into the wind with theoretical arguments and same vague notion of the possibility of some reasonable explanation.
    I have found any information that is convincing to me that Orient Paper's reports are true.
    Aug 5, 2010. 12:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Muddy Waters Requires a Leap of Faith they don’t Deserve [View instapost]
    Thank you. The SEC filings are publicly available to everyone through the internet through MSN and Yahoo. I suggest you try to find the document as it will help you get used to navigating through SEC documents, which is essential if you are providing commentary on publicy traded companies. When you get used to it, you will find it very easy to find.
    I don't know what that means about following the elephants too closely. Listen, I don't like the name Muddy Waters. I don't like the title "1 billion Chinese agree." I don't find everything in the Muddy Waters report persuasive.
    However, I have done my own due dligence and research. I have utilized some of the facts and evidence and sound reasoning therefrom that I obtained from the Muddy Waters report and followed up on these issues myself.
    I recommend each person do their own work and due diligence and come to their own conclusions. When you have done some due diligence, research and work of your own, let me know. Thanks.

    It is very easy to find the SEC filings. You can find them through looking up the company by its ticker symbol in the financial section of MSN or Yahoo.
    Aug 5, 2010. 12:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orient Paper: Key Pieces of Evidence for Fraud [View article]
    The CEO of international paper was interviewed. He did not sound bullish to me. Paper demand crashed with the global meltdown like everything else, and, like everything else, there has been a tepid recovery. So, it is better than last year. Of course, he may also want to put the best light on it as well, he is after all the CEO of one of the largest paper manufacturer in the world. Most CEO's tend to be positive about their industry even when it is not that great.
    Aug 4, 2010. 11:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Muddy Waters Requires a Leap of Faith they don’t Deserve [View instapost]
    are you deliberating leaving out words in sentences to make false representations? Muddy Waters does not agree that they made a mistake or that the numbers for ONP that ONP claims are correct. Anyone can easily see that at their site
    I can't tell if your reading comprehension is poor or you are just making misrepresentations intentionally.
    Anyway, the important question is whether ONP, not Muddy Waters, is truthful. Did you get own taste of their deception? If so, why would you ignore that as ONP's credibility is what is important here?
    In other words, who care about Muddy Waters? Muddy Waters could be the devil itself, but it will not help you if you believe ONP's representations and their representations are false. the investment decision being discussed is in ONP, not Muddy Waters.
    Aug 4, 2010. 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Muddy Waters Requires a Leap of Faith they don’t Deserve [View instapost]
    You ignored my cite to the SEC filings about the 'make good' agreement. Did you conclude the CFO lied to you? Are you upset about it? Do you trust anything from ONP now?
    We weren't discussing your first order of business. But the company's response and your post make no sense, causing extreme doubt of the company's credibility. ONP focused on the difference between the English names as translated. However, a chinese name can be translated several ways into English, so that is unimportant. What is important is the Chinese name, which Muddy Waters showed was the same.
    You can't translate the english name back into the chinese name without more info. ONP had to know the importance was the Chinese name, not variations in the translations into the English name. Therefore, ONP was making a defense that they had to know made no sense if one knew about english and chinese and translating between the two.
    Aug 4, 2010. 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orient Paper Inc. (ONP): Does It Add Up? Questions for Orient Paper's Investigators. [View instapost]
    I hihgly doubt you can find one company, particularly a manufacturing company and certainly not a paper manufacturing company, that reduced their headcount more than 30% and more than tripled their revenue and more than quadrupled their revenue in the space of three years. If you can, I bet the explanation will be apparent or easy to figure out.
    I have done my research. It is a great deal more than what I have posted here. It appears that you haven't done yours and I mean, have you done any research at all on ONP? When you have, let me know. Just saying it is a small company doesn't explain anything. It doesn't provide a single bit of fact or evidence to support that ONP is telling the truth.
    Why don't you call management yourself and ask them? The CFO is Winston Yen. He lives in Soutthern California and has an accounting office here. He was working only part time as the CFO and recently became fulltime. He appears to act more as a public relations or investor relations role than CFO. He appears to not to know much about the business. Management had no explanation, just start speaking double speak and talking about other things.

    Aug 4, 2010. 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Muddy Waters Requires a Leap of Faith they don’t Deserve [View instapost]
    See ONP's 8k filed On October 7, 2009, wiht the SEC. Here is a link:
    Here is a link to a report of Pope's portfolio.
    I must disagree with you about Muddy Waters. I found their claims well documented and ONP's claims not to be well documented.

    ONP entered into a securities purchase agreement with, among others,Pope Investments II, LLC. The Securities Agreement has a "make good" clause, requiring ONP to escrow 3 million shares and, if they don't meet the performance threholds for 2010 for net income, either all - if net income is $0 or less - or a percentage - if net income is less than the performance threshold but greater than $0 - gets distributed pro rata to the purchasers.

    PSee ONP's 8k filed 10-8-2009 which summarizes the Securities Purchase Agreement with, among others Pope Investments II, LLC, and attached the agreement as on Exhibit..

    DEF 14C filed 10-2-2009 with the SEC.

    Are you familiar with SEC filings? ONP files those. I read them.
    Ah, Mr. Yen, former CFO to Chilco River Holdings.

    Sure, Muddy Waters has provided documentation for their claims and I will continue to provide documentation for mine. Are you familiar with SEC filings, Esther? You can find the information in ONP's SEC filings - it comes from them.
    Aug 4, 2010. 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment