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  • GeoInvesting Responds To Bronte Capital On AmTrust [View article]
    They probably didn't address Saxon and Pipoly's past, because GeoInvesting reported nothing on Saxon and Pipoly's past. Instead, they reported on the past of the CEO of a company that Saxon and Pipoly previously worked at, where they said the CEO stole money. GeoInvesting did not say that this had anything to do with Saxon or Pipoly. It is difficult to ascertain what point, if any, Geo Investing was supposedly making.
    Dec 17, 2013. 07:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GeoInvesting Responds To Bronte Capital On AmTrust [View article]
    One reason may be because GI's method/logic is hard to follow or understand because it is poorly written and poorly reasoned. I also believe that if you listen again, you will see that they did essential address it by saying what they do.
    Dec 17, 2013. 07:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GeoInvesting Responds To Bronte Capital On AmTrust [View article]
    I think it is difficult to lay out GeoInvesting's case or reasoning because it is poorly written and reasoned. Instead, Amtrust just said what they do.
    The conference call almost totally focused on Amtrust's business. There was little, if any, ad hominem, attacks on short sellers.
    Dec 17, 2013. 07:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GeoInvesting Responds To Bronte Capital On AmTrust [View article]
    One interesting issue is that GeoInvesting is really talking about a small portion of AFSI's business.
    The amounts that GeoInvesting is talking about is about $400 million. The Life Settlements is really small. Geoinvesting is not claiming there are any other problems or that these problems are indicative of any other problems.
    GeoInvesting does not seem convinced themselves, as again, they say it only "appears" that the ceding of losses is not occuring and that it "appears" the life settlements are overvalued.
    I see little evidence that the life settlements are overvalued and little evidence that the losses are not be ceded.
    Dec 17, 2013. 07:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The AmTrust Controversy In A Nutshell [View article]
    I am long AFSI, buying in after the dip. However, I would like to warn you not to rely on purchases of stock by insiders. The issue is accuracy of the financial reporting in the past and the future prospects of the company. Whether or not an insider bought or sold shares does not answer those questions. There can be many issues to consider with an insider purchase or sell that has nothing to do with the company or its past reporting or future prospects.
    Dec 17, 2013. 07:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The AmTrust Controversy In A Nutshell [View article]
    too early to get back in until the dust settles? Yes, it makes sense to wait until the issues appear resolved and the stock price has moved back up to where it was . . NOT for me.
    Dec 17, 2013. 07:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The AmTrust Controversy In A Nutshell [View article]
    don't assume that the stock price went down just due to normal investors selling. It could go down for many other reasons, a coordinated short effort selling shares, boiler room trading in foreign countries, illegal trading back and forth between accounts, etc.
    Dec 17, 2013. 07:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The AmTrust Controversy In A Nutshell [View article]
    I think the price earnings ratio is more relevant to valuation than price to book, although, of course, it is future earnings that is important because theoretically a company is worth the present value of its future income stream.
    Dec 17, 2013. 07:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AmTrust Financial Services: A House Of Cards? [View article]
    AFSI has been growing faster than Metlife, which is much easier for them to do because they are much smaller, and AFSI is selling at under a 10 p/e, and only a small % of stocks are selling for less than a 10 p/e.
    Dec 15, 2013. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AmTrust Financial Services: A House Of Cards? [View article]
    There are plenty of books out there on the subject of detecting fraud, so ordering and reading those might be useful to you. Generally, it takes doing due diligence till you are comfortable that those running the business are honest and able, till you are comfortable that the numbers reported make sense and are reasonably accurate, making sure you understand the business well, and so on. There is no magic answer, it us just a combination of having the ability, doing the necessary work, and using common sense.
    Dec 13, 2013. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AmTrust Financial Services: A House Of Cards? [View article]
    seekingalpha keeps deleting my comments pointing out the flaws with this article and the poor track record of GeoInvesting. Seekingalpha, please do not delete this message, it is a legitimate message telling the truth. Allowing misleading articles and posts, while deleting the responses based on bogus claims that there is something wrong with the comment, is tantamount to supporting fraud, in my opinion.
    Dec 13, 2013. 09:26 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AmTrust Financial Services: A House Of Cards? [View article]
    let the buybacks begin! lol.
    Dec 13, 2013. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AmTrust Financial Services: A House Of Cards? [View article]
    Well, again, the author doesn't claim that PNX is facing bankruptcy, he says they are faced with "possible bankruptcy", which means that they also are faced with possible no bankruptcy. Consequently, another meaningless statement by the author that appears designed to create the conclusion in the mind of readers like yourself that the author said PNX was going bankrupt, whereas the author really expressed no opinion as to whether PNX was going bankrupt or not.
    Essentially, the whole article is like that.
    Since the author said little to nothing definitive, the author could write an article that was actually consistent with the current article that said that it appears the life settlements are understated on the books and the company may have overstated the ceded losses. The article would sound inconsistent, but would actually being consistent because of the lack of definitiveness is virtually everything the author said.
    I could write an article saying AFSI may be worth $5 a share and another saying it may be worth $100 a share. As long as I don't committ to either valuation, I am being consistent.
    The author should have waited till a definitive conclusion was reached, based on facts and reasoning, rather than putting out an article that was based on unsupported assumptions and speculation, with no definitive conclusions.
    Dec 13, 2013. 09:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AmTrust Financial Services: A House Of Cards? [View article]
    Not only that, I thought everyone knew that insurance companies pay into a fund so that if an insurance company goes bankrupt, there is money in the fund to pay the claims of the policy holders. So, why does the author say the life settlements will be worthless if PNX is facing bankruptcy?
    Dec 13, 2013. 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AmTrust Financial Services: A House Of Cards? [View article]
    Yes, it was hard to figure the authors math, where he alleged, without much basis, that AFSI reported $400 million more than it had, yet the author suggested the stock price should drop the market cap from close to $3 billion to something between about $280 million to about $1.2 billion. Very sloppy and speculative work all around.
    Dec 13, 2013. 09:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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