3 Bargain Stocks Where Analysts Expect Upside Of 70% Or More [View article]
Well, of course, you would be thrilled if HPQ's tangible book value could get up to 0, as it is currently about negative 12-13 billion. After 73 "profitable" years in business, Hewlett Packard has managed to achieve a balance sheet that has liabilities that exceed tangible assets by 12 or 13 billion. Taking the profits and overpaying for other companies is not a formula for financial success. Maybe Hewlett Packard can do well in the future, I don't know, but you couldn't pay me to own it now. I like companies that have managed to grow tangible book value over time, not diminish it.
Fraud Is Unlikely At New Oriental Education [View article]
I don't care what EDU is up or down. It is a fraud. I am not aware of anything in EDU's financials that is correct. Based on your articles and statements, you admit that you aren't either.
Cliffs Natural Resources: A Risk Reversal [View article]
I didn't say they had too much debt, but if you look directly at their balance sheet, they are loaded with debt. they only have 159.2 million in cash, while they have have 385.2m in accounts payable, 402m in accrued expenses, 49.2m in taxes payable, 369.7m in the current portion of debt, 204.7m in other current liabilities, and 123.4m in deferred revenue. the total current assets are 1.7b compraed to 1.5b in currently liabilities In addition to the cash, they have 310.8m in accounts receivable, 741m in in supplies and other inventories, 74.7m in derivative assets and 219.8m in other current assets. So, there is no question that, at least currently, that is pretty tight, a low amount of cash and other quickly available assets to pay current bills. Their long term assets include 10,8b in property, plant and equipment, that is usually not easily or quickly liquidated and i don't know what price they would get. They have 531.2m investments in ventures, which I don't know how easy it is to liquidate that or what they would get. They other long term assets are not helpful, 1.16b goodwill, 137.9 in intangible assets, 522.2m in deferred income taxes, and 212.2m in other non-current assets. Against that, they have 3.6b in long term debt, 1.14b in defered income taxes, 634m in postemployment benefits liabilities, 231.5m in environmental and mine closure obligations, and 330.6m in other liabilities. So, while they are in imminent danger of bankruptsy or running an earnings deficit, there balance sheet makes it look like prolonged, unexpected difficulties could turn those into potential problems. Perhaps an analysis of the economics of the business and how it works, such as the rate of turnover and so on, may allay my fears. But usually it is a given that balance sheets like this are cutting it a little fine when you see that amount of debt compared to that amount of liquid, tangible assets.
I wouldn't characterize John Paulson as lucky or great as an investor. John Paulson's idea of shorting cdos, etc., was a good bet that paid off handsomely; it wasn't lucky. However, to be a great investor, Paulson has to be able to avoid permanent losses of capital and develop a track record of good investment decisions. John Paulson cannot be declared great because he has yet to do this. If John Paulson's current best idea really is gold, then I don't think he is a great investor at all. Gold is certainly not the best investment choice. That doesn't mean he can't get lucky and have it do well, but it is not the best investment choice currently by far.
Cliffs Natural Resources: A Risk Reversal [View article]
virtually anytime you load up a business with that much debt, particularly a cyclical business business like this, it is inevitable that the risk of bankruptcy because much higher than most people realize, due to the fluctuations in business. The risk of bankruptcy may or may not be "priced" in, but I prefer companies that I have concluded are definitely not going to go bankrupt, but instead are definitely going to make gradually more money over the long term future. That said, I am open to, and would like to see, the analysis showing they aren't going to go bankrupt, or are very unlikely to. I would love to be persuaded in that direction, but I haven't seen anything persuasive on that issue. I don't look at option prices to analyze a company, I look at the company.
Fraud Is Unlikely At New Oriental Education [View article]
none of the arguments for goldpebble being legit held any value at all. The reason is because EDU is obviously a clear fraud, so the fool's gold pebble report is obviously untrue. Very silly in china to rely on papers, companies forge them routinely, bank documents, invoices, etc. you have to do something again to a forensic audit or be able to analyze the economics of the business, none of which is demonstrated in any way, shape or form in the fool's gold pebble report.
New Oriental Education Is Winning The Battle Against The Short Sellers [View article]
very silly for people to assume they know why a stock is down without surveying all the people that bought and sold that day, as well as those putting in bids and asks. Of course, the media and people do it all the time.
New Oriental Education Is Winning The Battle Against The Short Sellers [View article]
if people run a fund, they won't lie. Yeah, check with Bernie Madoff and the other scam artists on American Greed and everywhere else on that. Analysts won't lie because it would destroy there reputation, check on all the analysts that have lied in the past and are currently lying. I wouldn't count on SEC investigations, they investigated Madoff many times and many other frauds and couldn't figure anything out. Not spamming a report couldn't possibly, in any world, mean the report is true. How would you possibly know the reason the report came out? This is rank speculation on your part. You admitted before speculating as to this reason, but now you fail to acnkowledge it as speculation. Yes, investors have been fooled into thinking this terribly fraudulent company, EDU, is legitimate. It is obviouisly not.
Why Shouldn't You Buy These 2 Mortgage Insurance Stocks? [View article]
3 Bargain Stocks Where Analysts Expect Upside Of 70% Or More [View article]
Fraud Is Unlikely At New Oriental Education [View article]
Fraud Is Unlikely At New Oriental Education [View article]
Cliffs Natural Resources: A Risk Reversal [View article]
they only have 159.2 million in cash, while they have have 385.2m in accounts payable, 402m in accrued expenses, 49.2m in taxes payable, 369.7m in the current portion of debt, 204.7m in other current liabilities, and 123.4m in deferred revenue. the total current assets are 1.7b compraed to 1.5b in currently liabilities In addition to the cash, they have 310.8m in accounts receivable, 741m in in supplies and other inventories, 74.7m in derivative assets and 219.8m in other current assets. So, there is no question that, at least currently, that is pretty tight, a low amount of cash and other quickly available assets to pay current bills.
Their long term assets include 10,8b in property, plant and equipment, that is usually not easily or quickly liquidated and i don't know what price they would get. They have 531.2m investments in ventures, which I don't know how easy it is to liquidate that or what they would get. They other long term assets are not helpful, 1.16b goodwill, 137.9 in intangible assets, 522.2m in deferred income taxes, and 212.2m in other non-current assets. Against that, they have 3.6b in long term debt, 1.14b in defered income taxes, 634m in postemployment benefits liabilities, 231.5m in environmental and mine closure obligations, and 330.6m in other liabilities.
So, while they are in imminent danger of bankruptsy or running an earnings deficit, there balance sheet makes it look like prolonged, unexpected difficulties could turn those into potential problems. Perhaps an analysis of the economics of the business and how it works, such as the rate of turnover and so on, may allay my fears. But usually it is a given that balance sheets like this are cutting it a little fine when you see that amount of debt compared to that amount of liquid, tangible assets.
John Paulson: Lucky Or Great? [View article]
If John Paulson's current best idea really is gold, then I don't think he is a great investor at all. Gold is certainly not the best investment choice. That doesn't mean he can't get lucky and have it do well, but it is not the best investment choice currently by far.
Cliffs Natural Resources: A Risk Reversal [View article]
The risk of bankruptcy may or may not be "priced" in, but I prefer companies that I have concluded are definitely not going to go bankrupt, but instead are definitely going to make gradually more money over the long term future.
That said, I am open to, and would like to see, the analysis showing they aren't going to go bankrupt, or are very unlikely to. I would love to be persuaded in that direction, but I haven't seen anything persuasive on that issue.
I don't look at option prices to analyze a company, I look at the company.
Fraud Is Unlikely At New Oriental Education [View article]
New Oriental Education Is Winning The Battle Against The Short Sellers [View article]
New Oriental Education Is Winning The Battle Against The Short Sellers [View article]
Analysts won't lie because it would destroy there reputation, check on all the analysts that have lied in the past and are currently lying.
I wouldn't count on SEC investigations, they investigated Madoff many times and many other frauds and couldn't figure anything out.
Not spamming a report couldn't possibly, in any world, mean the report is true.
How would you possibly know the reason the report came out? This is rank speculation on your part. You admitted before speculating as to this reason, but now you fail to acnkowledge it as speculation.
Yes, investors have been fooled into thinking this terribly fraudulent company, EDU, is legitimate. It is obviouisly not.
PWC Zhong Tian: A Chinese Auditor With A Flawless Record [View article]
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters' Growing Inventory Levels - Is It A Fumble Or A Fraud? [View article]
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters' Growing Inventory Levels - Is It A Fumble Or A Fraud? [View article]
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters' Growing Inventory Levels - Is It A Fumble Or A Fraud? [View article]
New Oriental Education Is Winning The Battle Against The Short Sellers [View article]