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  • Broadwind Energy: Strong Idea For 2015 With Extremely Compelling Risk/Reward [View article]
    You should read into the rules of the PTC. As the rule is written, and as the company has described, even if the PTC "expires", there is a loop-hole allowing companies to qualify for the credit as long as they begin the project by year-end '15. Why do you think backlog is sold out for 2015?
    Jan 31, 2015. 06:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Broadwind Energy: Strong Idea For 2015 With Extremely Compelling Risk/Reward [View article]
    99% of the bears are betting on something they really have no edge in predicting. The whole point of the article is that a worst-case outcome (such as the one you described) is already embedded in the stock's valuation, more so than many other wind energy companies. Hence, risk/reward here looks terrific (the whole point of the article).
    Jan 31, 2015. 05:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Get Caught Short In Travelzoo [View article]
    do you expect revenue declines to moderate in 4Q or 1Q15? it sounds like 4Q is actually setting up to be the worst of the year- management basically said that revenue trends will not improve (nor get less bad) in 4Q, and also alluded to another $1m rise in opex. TZOO will likely lose money in 4Q
    Jan 4, 2015. 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Heska Could Double In 2014 [View article]
    We published this article 13 months ago- HSKA has gained 130%, exceeding our expectations by a healthy premium. We initially liked the stock for the following reasons: (1) underfollowed and unloved following years of operational inconsistency, (2) favorable underlying market dynamics (the medical device industry is overrun with secular growth, particularly in the companion animal space), (3) clear business momentum supplanted by major deals with MWI and Cuattro, (4) a disruptive sales model with attractive implications for operating leverage and eps growth, and (5) an unwarranted discount to peer multiples, primarily on a revenue and cash earnings basis.

    Today, we believe the same building blocks are in play for outperformance- we are revising our thesis to "Why Heska Could Double by 2016", as we expect the stock to do so by the end of CY2016. We will publish a follow-up article expanding on this, but to summarize, HSKA is still a strong pick in the companion animal space. We think the street continues to underestimate the operating leverage borne by the "rental reset" model, and would contend that HSKA is only in the early innings of an extended streak of market share gains. Cash EPS on a LTM basis approximates $0.80 (by our estimates), and management has guided for mid-single digit revenue growth in the company's Companion Animal segment (over 3/4 of consolidated revenue). HSKA's peers trade at earnings and book multiples of over 30x and 6x respectively... meanwhile, HSKA is trading at just 23x cash EPS and just over 2x book. HSKA appears even more undervalued on a revenue basis, trading at roughly 1.5x vs its peer average of 3x. The point is that the relative value argument is stronger than ever, especially because HSKA has the most to gain this year (the IDXX distribution shake-up coupled with new product launches in underserved verticals are both incremental positives for revenue growth in '15, particularly the former). HSKA will not pay cash taxes for many years, and we expect cash balances to accumulate, ultimately funding a strong dividend yield or potential share repurchases. Finally, a deal with Cuattro would be a major step in the right direction.

    All in all, we are still very constructive on HSKA and believe the market continues to underappreciate the company's focus and execution.
    Jan 2, 2015. 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RMG Networks: Potential Multi-Bagger On Sharp Revenue Reversal And Elimination Of Balance Sheet Risk [View article]
    I am aware of this and will be doing so.
    Nov 15, 2014. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monster Worldwide: 'Monster' Move Following Q3 Results [View article]
    May 18th 2007
    $50.08
    Nov 12, 2014. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qumu: Room To Fall As Losses Widen And Revenue Growth Slows [View article]
    also if i'm not mistaken the numbers were badly behind my run-rate estimates even in my aggressive "short" scenario

    which means that qumu probably won't be profitable until 2017+

    at that point, the co's cash will be mostly gone and they will either have debt or have diluted the equity

    and that "2x" revenue is more like 10x revenue on an implied forward basis
    Oct 30, 2014. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qumu: Room To Fall As Losses Widen And Revenue Growth Slows [View article]
    rev growth slowed again
    margins were miserable (both gross AND operating)
    operating loss swelled to nearly $8m?

    even better short at this price
    Oct 30, 2014. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qumu: Room To Fall As Losses Widen And Revenue Growth Slows [View article]
    what a terrible quarter. this only reinforces my position
    Oct 30, 2014. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monster Worldwide: Deeply Undervalued With 'Monster' Potential [View article]
    I disagree - a falling unemployment rate and 200K+ jobs added monthly is actually an attractive backdrop for a staffing company. Plus, there is always a structural component of unemployment in the economy (meaning there will always be a single digit % of the population who remains unemployed)

    not to mention 1/3 of MWW's business is in Europe, which you could still define as early cycle from a hiring/labor market standpoint

    also as i postulated, monster doesn't need significant revenue growth for the stock to work (for various reasons, as discussed throughout the article)
    Oct 28, 2014. 11:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monster Worldwide: Deeply Undervalued With 'Monster' Potential [View article]
    also FYI the CEO owns millions of dollars worth of options with much higher strikes vs. the convert - so in a way he is the last to get paid.
    Oct 18, 2014. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monster Worldwide: Deeply Undervalued With 'Monster' Potential [View article]
    I agree that mgmt screwed shareholders but in no way does that mean the stock can't work from here. Watch how quickly sentiment changes if they print one quarter of revenue growth and margin expansion.
    Oct 18, 2014. 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monster Worldwide: Deeply Undervalued With 'Monster' Potential [View article]
    We can debate the "quality" of goodwill all we want, but the point I am trying to emphasize is that the stock is extremely cheap by many different measures, not solely book value - of those measures, I emphasize book value because it is extremely rare to find a profitable company with its stock trading at half of book...

    If the SAAS business turns out to be a winner, then your point is moot (i.e. the goodwill acquired from Yahoo and others in the past actually becomes extremely valuable) - and the stock is worth at least double or maybe much more.

    Oct 18, 2014. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monster Worldwide: Deeply Undervalued With 'Monster' Potential [View article]
    I agree the convertible debt is extremely disappointing - not sure why they didn't opt to refinance at a higher coupon instead.

    The stock is certainly cheap on a # of other metrics, not just book value... p/e, ev/ebitda, and ev/sales are less than half those of peers..

    Oct 17, 2014. 05:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Monster Worldwide: Deeply Undervalued With 'Monster' Potential [View article]
    Monster sells services (as well as software products) and has monetized intangible assets on multiple occasions in the last 2 years, for substantial premiums over carrying value at that.
    Oct 17, 2014. 05:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
136 Comments
68 Likes