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My name is Chris Redoble and I'm an independent trader. I've been a heavily involved student of the markets for 7 years. I bought my first stock when I was 12 with my father, Mobil before it became ExxonMobil, then went on to purchase shares of Chevron. I've been fascinated by the markets ever... More
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Buzzworthy - Making Sense of Economics & Finance
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  • SPY, USD ($DXY) Targets and Charts - Riding the Trend

    I did a recent chart on the SPY and $USD. Simple technical analysis here on the SPY. Below we have a weekly chart for the bigger picture, and a Daily close-up for the close above resistance for new highs of 2011 (Big win for the bulls). 

     

    My ideal scenario would be to see the SPY retrace to bounce off 134.71 to test former resistance and establish it as new support. A launch off 134.71 would be encouraging as it would establish a harder floor giving more assurance to the rally. Relative Strength Index is still sloping upwards and MACD fast EMA is close to crossing upwards on the weekly chart. The 10-week SMA has served as solid initial support over the last couple of years.

     

    An interesting thing I noticed is that in the last 3 years, SPY has gone as high as 22% above its 50-week SMA. Currently the 50-SMA is at 120.03.  If it were to extend 22% above the 50-SMA, it would imply a target of 146.43 (120.03 x 1.22). This is by no means a definitive target, but rather just an observation.The weekly 10, 20, and 50-MA's are still sloping upwards confirming the current uptrend. I do believe we'll hit at least 144 on the SPY. However, my trading methodology is not to pick tops, but rather to ride the trend - and the current trend is obvious.

     

    There are a few things that concern me at this point that warrant caution: The lack of volume on the push to new highs, the MACD so far above the 0-line, and we're right up against the 78.6% retracement level since the beginning of the bear market decline in 2007. 

     

    The USD/Dollar Index is at dangerously oversold levels and is due for a bounce, soon. The current correlation between the greenback and equities is an inverse relationship. A continued drop in the dollar could contribute to the push-up. A strong dollar bounce could send commodities and precious metals reeling. Gold and Silver correction anyone? The recent run-up is so parabolic that a serious correction would not surprise me in the least. A dollar rise will not always translate to a decline in silver/gold, as sometimes there is a true flight to quality from riskier assets such as stocks or bonds. I could see the Dollar extend its move downward towards the ~71.50 area to test prior lows from July of 2008. If we don't bounce there, well... Hope you have Gold and Silver, physical and paper.

     

    And the Charts in order of SPY Weekly, SPY Daily, and $USD Dollar Index Cash Futures... For more updates: Visit us at www.buzzworthyus.com
    SPY Weekly

    SPY Daily

    $DXY Weekly


    Tags: SPY, SSO, XLF, UUP, SLV, GLD, AGQ, Dollar, S P, Market
    Apr 29 1:03 AM | Link | Comment!
  • SIlver' correction: Just Beginning or Ending?
      Tonight in the futures market, the Dollar Index (/DX) is relatively flat. Silver Futures on the other hand, are getting pummeled. Has the lackluster performance of the miners (SLW, AG, HL, EXK) as of late been telling us a story? Many believe the current trade to be long the PMs, short the miners as a hedge. We should be playing close attention to see how the miners react. As miners are a more leveraged way of getting silver exposure, it's safe to assume they will follow the expected correction in silver, until they don't.

    Who knows how far silver can correct before resuming its run. I'll be sure to have dry powder to scale into new positions. The first stop in silver appears to be around 44.30ish on /SI which is the 10-SMA (pink line). This area has been formidable support since January. Next stop is the 20-SMA, which is much lower, currently at 41.713. This is truly a worrisome area for silver bulls. These types of corrections can be violent, but very profitable if played correctly. At current levels, silver has already corrected 10% from its highs.

    First the Dollar Chart, then Silver. On the Silver chart, notice the high volume pattern and the price exhaustion on the last push-up. Also, the highlighted ovals show past occasions in which the prices pinned above the bollinger bands, each time the price has pulled back by approximately 10%.

    This correction should be viewed as, healthy.

    Exercise extreme caution when trading leveraged vehicles such as futures and leveraged ETFs (ie: AGQ)





    Please visit us at buzzworthyus.com
    Apr 26 2:39 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Dollar Flat, Silver Whacked!
     Tonight in the futures market, the Dollar Index (/DX) is relatively flat. Silver Futures on the other hand, are getting pummelled. Has the lackluster performance of the miners (SLW, AG, HL, EXK) as of late been telling us a story? Many believe the current trade to be long the PMs, short the miners as a hedge. We should be playing close attention to see how the miners react. As miners are a more leveraged way of getting silver exposure, it's safe to assume they will follow the expected correction in silver, until they don't.

    Who knows how far silver can correct before resuming its run. I'll be sure to have dry powder to scale into new positions. The first stop in silver appears to be around 44.30ish on /SI which is the 10-SMA (pink line). This area has been formidable support since January. Next stop is the 20-SMA, which is much lower, currently at 41.713. This is truly a worrisome area for silver bulls. These types of corrections can be violent, but very profitable if played correctly. At current levels, silver has already corrected 10% from its highs.

    First the Dollar Chart, then Silver. On the Silver chart, notice the high volume pattern and the price exhaustion on the last push-up. Also, the highlighted ovals show past occasions in which the prices pinned above the bollinger bands, each time the price has pulled back by approximately 10%.

    This correction should be viewed as, healthy.

    Exercise extreme caution when trading leveraged vehicles such as futures and leveraged ETFs (ie: AGQ)




    Please visit us at buzzworthyus.com


    Disclosure: I am long SLW.

    Additional disclosure: calls
    Apr 26 2:37 AM | Link | Comment!
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