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Cagdas Ozgenc  

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  • A Properly Diversified Portfolio Includes Gold [View article]
    I didn't say that a low probability event can be ignored. Read the text again and don't twist my words. I think you are fighting too fiercely for a 5% placement on gold. Nobody will create such a big fuss for 5%. You sound more like you lost more than that.
    Nov 16, 2014. 06:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Properly Diversified Portfolio Includes Gold [View article]

    Here we are considering general collapse in Fiat system. If you are going to consider a local event, then it should be obvious to you that you can keep a basket of fiat currencies instead of gold where you can earn interest on the basket but nothing on the gold.

    Successful investing requires multi dimensional thinking. Concentrating on one risk factor so much makes you vulnerable to other risk factors. And collapse of fiat system is just one risk factor. There is actually a more and main important risk factor. It is called the "market risk". That's what has materialized on people who held gold/silver in the last 3 years, which led to 40, 60% loss respectively. Blindly sitting on a sliding investment and repeating the fiat currency tale didn't help anybody. It is a case of Homer Simpson: "but but but my poncho".

    Collapse of fiat system is a low probability risk. Such risks are called tail risks. And those kind of risks are better not to expect reward on but rather insure against. So if one thinks of gold as an insurance premium against collapse of fiat system, one should also not expect gains. Why? Because insurance policies have negative returns on the average. Otherwise insurance companies cannot make money. Basically one cannot hold gold as an insurance policy and hope to make money. One doesn't buy a life insurance policy with the hope of dying tomorrow. You actually pray that it doesn't happen. And in case it happens you are compensated only up to your coverage. For example a car insurance will only replenish your totaled car. It will not make you money. The only way to make money on insurance is to actually commit insurance fraud.
    Nov 14, 2014. 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Properly Diversified Portfolio Includes Gold [View article]
    How do you envision the scenario where the fiat system collapses? Do you think in such a scenario you will be safe in your home? Is your gold going to be safe? If it is safe is it going to have an utility or non-radioactive water and a full tank of gas will have more utility?

    Many people seem to think the end of the world scenario but don't seem to comprehend what it may entail.
    Nov 13, 2014. 11:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Gold Prices Have Been Declining [View article]
    It is OK to be wrong but it is definitely not OK to stay wrong when it comes to investment. One must swallow his pride and live to fight for another day.
    Nov 7, 2014. 09:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Gold Prices Have Been Declining [View article]
    So you haven't been buying gold before, but you will start buying now as it went out of favor. Is that what you are trying to say? Or you have been buying and losing money for the last 3 years and now you are whistling down the dark road with that "dollar keep going up and gold going down speech" trying not to wet your pants?
    Nov 7, 2014. 09:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Gold Prices Have Been Declining [View article]
    That is very true. For some reason goldbugs think that stocks are paper assets. Well they are not. You are buying a company. If that company serves a true need in society and profitable then it is a much harder asset than gold.
    Nov 7, 2014. 03:08 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Gold Prices Have Been Declining [View article]
    When it comes to investment people tend to lose objectivity. When they win its their successful analysis of the situation, when they lose it must be the fault of the system.

    It is very true that everything is evolving. Many people try to justify holding on to gold with its historical status as store of value. But when you look objectively you may find many things that had very long history but the perception has changed dramatically eventually. For example "paper". With the invention of computers and recently tablets this historically very important product will cease to exist. "Tobacco". It took thousands of years to people realize that it causes cancer.

    How many more years are required to realize that gold is a yellow conductor, that I don't know. But if had lost 40% of my investments I would have been quite upset. Nevertheless as a sane investor I would have sit down and think where I did wrong instead of cursing at the unfair system.
    Nov 7, 2014. 03:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Should Gold Investors Do Now? [View article]
    "First and foremost, we're writing for long-term investors here and if you're trying to trade gold or expect what we say today to be what happens next week - then read something else. We have no idea what gold will do this week, next week, or next month - but when it comes to a longer term horizon then there is some value in what we focus on - fundamental analysis of the gold industry and the macroeconomic climate."

    One of the worst advice that I have read these days. You should be always in control of your portfolio and ready to liquidate be it gold or anything else. Volatility is a proxy measure for risk, and any such downward spiral that gold experienced should have triggered a preset risk management cut-off for any sane investor already.

    If you start to visualize anything for a very very long term then one should look into very long term risks such futuristic as space mining, gold synthesizing in nuclear reactors or particle accelerators. Basically you are lengthening your investment horizon to ignore the short term risks, that's fine as long as you don't exceed the meaningful life span of humans (we need to eat at some point) and couple that with long term risks such as technological breakthroughs that may make gold investment obsolete.
    Nov 3, 2014. 07:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Reasons Not To Sell 3D Systems [View article]
    After all that criticism on my comments and personal attacks you managed to destroy 50% capital YTD.

    Good job.
    Sep 30, 2014. 02:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The SPDR Gold Trust ETF: Will It Bounce Back? [View article]
    What do you think is the probability that Venezuela will be forced to liquidate their $15bln physical gold reserve?
    Sep 25, 2014. 03:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do The Math: Apple's Fiscal 2015 EPS To Rise (At Least) 25% [View article]
    Let's set things straight. I have nothing against Apple as an investment, solid company, powerful brand, loved products, good valuation, real earnings. I wrote an entire article on this.

    iOS will not get as sticky as Windows until Apple starts dominating the enterprise world. IBM deal is a good step towards that direction. Some hit games that people play for a while won't due the trick. Today Candy Crush, tomorrow 2048, or whatever.

    I also appreciate the music collection, payments, and health as good anchors. Now for these to boost stickiness, Apple should start providing the server side solutions for these as well. Enterprise health data storage service, payment processing back-end, etc. They already have the music side set with iTunes. Now those servers should get into hospitals, banks. If not competitors will proliferate the market with their front end solutions.
    Sep 25, 2014. 03:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Do The Math: Apple's Fiscal 2015 EPS To Rise (At Least) 25% [View article]
    I never made a single comment regarding whether FB stock is a good investment or not. How you managed to take what I wrote there is a mystery. FB passed the tipping point. It is difficult to contest its presence for a long time. Whether they can monetize it or not, or whether you should put your money on FB stock is a totally different discussion.
    Sep 24, 2014. 12:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do The Math: Apple's Fiscal 2015 EPS To Rise (At Least) 25% [View article]
    You are just providing cherry pick examples with no basis to population drift.

    Average time spent on FB is increasing. FB is the new generation Television that will be around for a long time. They locked in retail users just like Microsoft locked the enterprise users. And if some startup makes some jitter they already showed the world that they will buy and integrate it. Competitors have nothing big to integrate to, and these small systems work much better as part of a bigger system.

    You can use Google over VPN by paying VPN service less than $100 a month. You don't need a new company for that. They will know what you do but they will not know who you are. Unfortunately Apple cannot keep most of what they do proprietary regarding HCI because they are in hardware business whereas algorithms of Google are highly proprietary and locked within the servers of Google without public access, hence cannot be copied without corporate espionage.
    Sep 24, 2014. 10:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do The Math: Apple's Fiscal 2015 EPS To Rise (At Least) 25% [View article]
    Market doesn't believe in the stickiness of Apple ecosystem as much as Google search or Facebook network. When objectively evaluated one should agree that it would be easier to dethrone Apple than Facebook. That's why a new revolutionary product is expected of Apple. Google search is still the same Google search for me as customer experience for the last 10 years. But nobody is pouring billions to challenge Google on a large scale, only a few local contenders in non-latin alphabet searches like Russian and Chinese. Google locked in the key people in AI world and it is a huge asset. It is very difficult to replicate without those people as the algorithms require very high academic competency. Manufacturing processes are much more widespread knowledge.

    Nevertheless Apple is a very solid company and will keep delivering. One should buy the dips with good returns.
    Sep 24, 2014. 07:01 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Pure Luck Isn't Going To Work [View article]
    You cannot make a monte-carlo simulation like that and conclude 86%. All those portfolio's generated in a time frame are correlated.
    Sep 11, 2014. 10:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment