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Cagdas Ozgenc

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  • EM Tail-Risks Are Rising [View article]
    Gazprom is trading at 2 PE. Where do people want it to crash to? 0.5 PE? Yes bookkeeping is not that honest in Russia, yes Putin is using these companies to finance his own agenda, but I think there's not much downside left.
    Apr 18 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EM Tail-Risks Are Rising [View article]
    Irrelevant argument. That's not priced into the entire financial system. Do you think when such a scenario takes place the Russian stock market will be the only market crashing?
    Apr 18 06:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EM Tail-Risks Are Rising [View article]
    As always you are on the wrong boat. Last year you were shorting France. When are you going to learn? Never beat the dead horse.
    Apr 18 04:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clear And Present Danger To The World Economy [View article]
    I totally agree. Never beat the dead horse. I have been buying the dip, and yesterday after Russian markets were closed RSX popped 6% due to the events in Geneva.
    Apr 18 04:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hot Money Continues To Flow Into Emerging Markets [View article]
    Exactly my bets at the moment, except for South Africa. I think it is quite expensive compared to other emerging markets. Search for yield will bring money back to emerging markets, while US stocks tank.
    Apr 11 02:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Buy Out Comcast [View article]
    Take a number and have a seat.
    Apr 7 02:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tech and biotech continue to slide [View news story]
    No real earnings, full of air techs with 100 PE are crashing. Good. It was about time.
    Apr 4 12:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Is Rigged! The Stock Market Is Not Rigged! [View article]
    This is a known phenomenon.

    Especially leveraged ETFs do huge buy/sell close to market closing and professionals and algos who know about this frontrun them.
    Apr 3 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Is Rigged! The Stock Market Is Not Rigged! [View article]
    @Tollsfothee, your Walmart analogy is wrong, but you raised an important point. Walmart cannot increase the price of shoes they advertised when they see you coming, because it is against law to advertise a price and apply a different price. Customer protection agencies made sure that companies get a nice fine for doing that. What's interesting in your point is that this is at least one of the crimes committed in financial markets. The price advertised is not necessarily what you will pay for the stock. When it is the stock market this issue is overlooked. Usually you will see in advertisements a disclaimer at the bottom something like "offer is limited by supplies". This is there to make sure that if walmart runs out of shoes for the advertised price and cannot serve every customer they will not get into trouble. I think HFT guys can always hide behind this.
    Apr 3 02:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Is Rigged! The Stock Market Is Not Rigged! [View article]
    Another naive point again. Don't forget that you are setting your limit price based on what you currently observe. Are you going to give a limit order of 46 for a long position when the current price is 45? You will give it say 44. What if that 45 is manipulated? Assume that two people are sitting there with an apple. You go there and ask how much it is? They say it is 45. You offer 44 and they sell it to you. Are you happy with that purchase? Every second HFTs are filling the market rapidly with quote and quote_cancels without any intention to buy or sell. Some of those prices are to throw you off. Do you see the dilemma?
    Apr 2 11:27 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Is Rigged! The Stock Market Is Not Rigged! [View article]
    You are wrong. The analogy doesn't apply here. When Walmart buying 100,000 pairs of shoes it gets a better price than you buying 1 pair. This is understandable. What HFT does is different. It sees that you are walking to the shoe store and runs and gets there before you. It anticipates what shoe you will buy and buys whatever is in the store and waits you at the door and tells you: "hey the store ran out of the shoe you are looking for, but I can sell it to you for a small change differential." That's why it is rigged.
    Apr 2 10:58 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Is Rigged! The Stock Market Is Not Rigged! [View article]
    Be careful with the term "frontrunning".

    If you mean an intermediary/broker is executing orders based on what its client is asking and taking advantage of that for material gain, it is illegal, and such companies will be eliminated from the market by loss of reputation.

    If you mean that some totally unrelated party is anticipating your moves in order to act before you using publicly available information (albeit a huge data access fee and infrastructure costs), it is legal (at least at the moment) and that's what HFT's are doing.

    HFT guys will say on TV they are not frontrunning by using the first definition. It is their PR defense.
    Apr 2 10:37 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Is Rigged! The Stock Market Is Not Rigged! [View article]
    Markets are rigged many ways.

    1) Limit order doesn't protect you from being robbed. Hidden Liquidity Models are there to anticipate your next move by looking at the entire bid/ask stack and its change thereof. These guys are guessing your next action based on your previous actions. You are vulnerable by limit orders as well.

    2) If you are buying/selling derivatives, leveraged, or short positioned, big daddies will shake you. It is actually very easy. They buy some stock to their portfolio, say Apple. Then they start selling options in the market, puts and/or calls. Say you bought some options and paid the premium. At the settlement date they look at the overall profit and loss of the stock position and option positions. They buy more or sell what they have in stock to adjust the price close the closing bell hence set the price for option settlement and maximize their gains. The derivatives are based on another instrument and these big firms have the control on the price. This is huge rip-off in my opinion.

    There are many other ways which are harder to describe. In my opinion your text is too naive.
    Apr 2 10:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Consensus: Bullish At Last [View article]
    I didn't quite understand what you are saying. Do you mean US Treasuries are going to go up and yields are going to go down?
    Apr 2 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Notes On TV [View article]
    If you think of this acquisition from a short term ROC perspective you will never be able to justify any mega acquisition. Pretty much all mega acquisitions went bad. But if all of a sudden Apple controls the biggest content in the world and the its own hardware platforms as part of distribution it is a totally different ball game.
    Mar 28 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment