Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Caiman Valores  

View Caiman Valores' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Oil Rally Will Be Short Lived, Sharply Lower Crude Prices Will Remain Longer Than Expected [View article]
    Busted Bill I certainly don't see myself as an expert on oil and your quite right in saying that it can be unpredictable but as an energy analyst I am trying to bring some understanding to what is a difficult subject to tackle.

    Also apologies for the length of the article there just seems to be so many inputs that affect the outlook for crude. Thank you for your kind words.
    May 29, 2015. 05:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Reforms Necessary For Colombian Economic Growth [View article]
    I couldn't agree more with the premise of your article. Colombia's property market particularly at the upper end is over inflated and bubbly, particuarly in Bogota and Medellin because of the significant influx of foreign investment in the sector.

    The crude price crash is also hurting Colombia hard causing the peso to deflate and fueling rapid inflation (along with the influx of non-productive FI). While the government more pro-business and FI friendly it seems to have no real long-term economic plan other than keep pushing tourism, FI in property development (which is non-productive investing) and making it cheaper and easier to invest in the oil sector. All of which are ultimately unproductive forms of investment particularly with Colombia set to run out of oil in around 7 years.

    I am also concerned by the widening inequality of wealth that investment in Colombia is creating particularly with most of it being channeled into very small markets and specific suburbs. This can only hurt the country's ability to create an inclusive and broad based middle-class that will allow domestic consumption drive GDP growth.

    The over-reliance on tourism (albeit the seedier less profitable forms of tourism) along with non-productive investment in property development coupled with an over-reliance on oil and agricultural exports is setting the Colombian economy and economic miracle up to fail.
    May 29, 2015. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Peru The Next Investment Opportunity? [View article]
    Interesting article and while Peru's economic growth is certainly going to be hit hard by weaker base and precious metal prices the country holds considerable potential. I actually see the potential in Peru as being far greater than Colombia and this is after lving in COlombia for over 5 years.

    This comes primarily from Colombia's property market particularly at the upper end being inflated and fast approaching bubble territory in Bogota and Medellin because of the significant influx of foreign investment in the sector.

    The crude price crash is also hurting Colombia hard causing the peso to deflate and fueling rapid inflation (along with the influx of non-productive FI). While the government is far more pro-business and FI friendly than Peru it seems to have no real long-term economic plan other than keep pushing tourism, FI in property development and making it cheaper and easier to invest in the oil sector. All of which are ultimately unproductive forms of investment particularly with Colombia set to run out of oil in around 7 years.

    Peru on the other hand appears to be focused on attempting to address socio-economic inequalities and build up domestic consumption, although it is starting from a far lower economic base point than Colombia. Peru also remains one of my favourite investment locations in South America and even more so because I am bullish on the long-term outlook for silver and to a lesser extent gold. Also once China and the EU start to grow again demand for base metals will also shootup boosting Peru's GDP and export income.

    Great article, I woudl just point out that its Credicorp not Creditcorp.
    May 29, 2015. 01:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Rally Will Be Short Lived, Sharply Lower Crude Prices Will Remain Longer Than Expected [View article]
    bk a very good point, this is why Venezuela and Nigeria are agitating OPEC to decrease production because of their dependence on oil as a key export and means of generating hard currency.
    May 29, 2015. 10:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Shaping Up To Be The Best Precious Metal Play Of The Decade [View article]
    I actually prefer owning equities to bullion for a range of reasons but the reason to own equities and the capability to do so depends on a range of personal circumstances. While I have access to the TSX and NYSE through my broker I would point out that I am not located in North America and the ownership of foreign equities is detrimental for me for a variety of reasons including tax treatment.

    As for ownership of physical bullion the decision to do so came about because of my personal financial circumstances not because I prefer bullion or ETFs.

    Silver is widely called poor mans gold but that is not because it is a laggard but because it is far cheaper and allows investors to take a position without having to commit tremendous amounts of capital.
    May 28, 2015. 11:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Shaping Up To Be The Best Precious Metal Play Of The Decade [View article]
    I am not sure why owning bullion and collectible silver coins should be noted are you able to expand on your comment for the benefit of my readers. At this time I don't own any North American, or European listed equities, ETFs or any primary silver miners, this for a number of reasons both personal and financial.

    I would also point at that there is a relationship between gold and silver and that correlation is clearly evident in the chart at the start of the article.

    I would be quite interested in hearing why platinum or gold is a superior investment and if you could expand on your reasoning and comment.
    May 28, 2015. 02:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Shaping Up To Be The Best Precious Metal Play Of The Decade [View article]
    Thorshammer that is a great point and one that I have discussed in other articles on the bullish outlook for silver. Interestingly the amount of silver coming from scrap recovery is falling sharply as well further increasing the value of silver above the ground and in inventories or use. A key problem though is the ongoing manipulation of silver prices through silver futures on the COMEX and it is difficult to see this ending even as the supply fundamentals become more constrained.
    May 28, 2015. 11:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Shaping Up To Be The Best Precious Metal Play Of The Decade [View article]
    Again some more great points and certainly supports the thesis that silver can only appreciate in value. I would also point out that Beijing is focused on moving China's economy from one focused on manufacturing for exports to one that is focused on and grows due to internal consumption. As this transition occurs and wealth per capita rises the demand for hi-tech products where silver is a key ingredient in a range of components will grow exponentially. I am also working on updating the thesis and will cover off the points you have raised in forthcoming articles.
    May 27, 2015. 08:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Shaping Up To Be The Best Precious Metal Play Of The Decade [View article]
    I certainly do not subscribe to the view that the gold to silver ratio should be at 15 or that it will ever revert to that level. However, based on a range of indicators including growing demand and constrained supplies then silver can only appreciate in value, plus gold appears undervalued to fairly valued based on a range of indicators.
    May 27, 2015. 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Shaping Up To Be The Best Precious Metal Play Of The Decade [View article]
    bobady it certainly can but the other part of the thesis is that demand for silver is rising and the supply situation remains constrained therefore leaving it positioned to appreciate in value. Typically the ratio over time will revert to the mean and with gold appearing fairly valued on a range of indicators then silver can only climb in value.
    May 27, 2015. 07:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander: One Of The Best Banks In The World Sells At A Discount [View article]
    I agree with your views though I feel that Santander doesn't offer the same upside that it did 2 to 3 years ago. Also any significant exposure to Latam and any bet on Latam is worrying with weaker oil, base metal and precious metals prices weighing heavily on the performance of Latam commodities that are typically primary producing export focused economies.
    May 27, 2015. 07:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander: One Of The Best Banks In The World Sells At A Discount [View article]
    hexpert I am a big fan of Scotia Bank and I also quite like TD. Personally I would keep away from CIBC, BMO and RBC as well as the smaller regional Canadian banks like Canadian Western Bank and Laurentian.
    May 27, 2015. 06:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Shaping Up To Be The Best Precious Metal Play Of The Decade [View article]
    Jake thank you for the kind words, always nice to get this kind feedback from a fellow contributor. Big fan of your work and looking forward to more of your articles.
    May 27, 2015. 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Shaping Up To Be The Best Precious Metal Play Of The Decade [View article]
    James some interesting comments. At this time silver is used in PVs because of its conductive qualities that are superior to copper or gold. If copper were used in place of silver then the cells would become less efficient requiring more cells in each array. Therefore, it is likely that silver will continue to be used even when prices rise.
    May 27, 2015. 06:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Shaping Up To Be The Best Precious Metal Play Of The Decade [View article]
    Thorshammer thank you for the additional information. As for the ratio of silver to gold in the Earth's crust there are a range of ratios given going from 9 to 1 to 20 to 1. Typically, I prefer to err on the side of caution and use the worst case scenario. I certainly agree on your comments regarding marginal mines and this along with significantly less investment in mine exploration and development will only constrain supplies further.
    May 27, 2015. 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,676 Comments
1,006 Likes