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  • Pacific Rubiales Beaten Down And Oversold Offering Long-Term Value With Significant Positive Catalysts [View article]
    Hi River

    My article on Aurora O&G is here: http://seekingalpha.co... but it may have gone back behind the pay wall because it was a Top Idea.

    Overall the Baytex deal is accretive for Baytex and certainly a game changer for the company. I agree with AA's view on the debt but I am still cautious, the debt was a burden for Aurora and Baytex itself is only a small-cap so it will be interesting to see how it manages the debt. One option could be to sell-off Aurora's non-developed acreage.

    But the increased FFO of 17% coupled with the higher margins to be obtained from light oil will go some way to supporting that debt.

    Matt
    Feb 8 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Rubiales Beaten Down And Oversold Offering Long-Term Value With Significant Positive Catalysts [View article]
    Hi River
    Great to see you and welcome back. I have read the guidance and everything in it was quite positive. I believe the big driver of the ongoing sell-off of PRE is a flight to quality among investors triggered by the emerging market rout coupled with investors still fearful of the loss of the Piri Rubiales concession.

    PRE is set to recover but it is unlikely to occur over the short-term with fear driving investor sentiment towards the company. At its current price it appears irresistibly cheap especially given the 4% plus dividend yield, but as I stress it is a medium to long-term play.

    I am not sure if I would be chasing yield with BTE, the company may have bitten off more than it can chew with regard to Aurora, given that company's debt load. But I did call Aurora as being under-valued some months back which earnt me the wrath of Richard Zeits.

    As for TMX markets, being located here in Colombia I have no contacts at TMX markets but I am certain if your send them an email they will be able to adjust it for you.

    Kind regards,
    Matt
    Feb 8 03:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Rubiales Beaten Down And Oversold Offering Long-Term Value With Significant Positive Catalysts [View article]
    Hi Fidelity

    I tend to take management's comments with regard to the Piri Rubiales concession a little skeptically. Essentially 6 months ago they were reassuring the market that they would be able to renew the concession, and then were forced to announce that in all likelihood they wouldn't be able to renew the concession or if they did it would be on extremely unfavorable terms.

    I would point out that there have been no statements to the majority holder of the field Ecopetrol that it is in 'steep natural decline' and management were certainly not making those claims over a year ago when the field contributed a significant majority of Pacific Rubiale's production.

    There has been some speculation that if they did renew the concession the agreement would include the deployment of STAR technology in the field, but essentially I have taken the view that they won't be able to renew the concession.

    There has been some speculation in the media that the STAR technology is not performing to the level claimed by management, but I was unable to find any hard evidence of this, but it is worth keeping in mind.

    But it is possible - in accordance with management guidance - that both the CPE-6 and Rio Ariari blocks also in the Llanos Basin will be online by the time the concession expires and these blocks will replace the lost production and reserves. Hence my decision to determine a best case and worst case indicative value per share.

    If you require any further information or have any further questions please do not hesitate to ask.

    Kind regards,

    Matt
    Feb 8 03:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Rubiales Beaten Down And Oversold Offering Long-Term Value With Significant Positive Catalysts [View article]
    pdtor

    Thank you for commenting and the positive feedback. At this time the market is pricing in the worst case scenario and negative sentiment continues to weigh heavily on PRE's share price, which is why it is trading at such a significant discount to its NAV.

    But given the uncertainties surrounding the Piri Rubiales field (which from what I have been able to determine PRE's lease won't be renewed) coupled with the emerging markets sell off, a general flight to safety and overall negative perception surrounding oil prices and Colombia, makes it a long-term play. Unless of course a T/O suitor emerges, which with PRE trading at such a deep discount to its NAV should not be discounted.

    Kind regards,

    Matt
    Feb 8 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wellgreen Platinum: A Gem Amongst The Rubble - Genuine '10-Bagger' Upside [View article]
    Now down by 22% since publication, was someone front running the article?
    Feb 7 07:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aurora Oil And Gas: An Unloved And Undervalued Australian Oil Junior [View article]
    Baytex (BTE) announces proposed acquisition of Aurora O&G for AUD $4.10 cash per share; http://bit.ly/1b9uBEk
    Feb 7 12:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bankers Petroleum: Massive Resource, Steep Production Growth, Strong Upcoming Catalysts, Significant Undervaluation [View article]
    Dennis

    Thank you for the feedback and positive comments. I agree there is still significant negative sentiment attached to investing in O&G in South America.

    The security situation in Colombia concerning the FARC has stabilized significantly and it is expected that there will be a some sort of peace arrangement, with a number of key points being agreed to. I feel that the government is being overly optimistic plus many of the FARC fighters won't demobilize but more than likely splinter in to other forms of armed groups. Any peace deal with the FARC won't include the ELN and they have made it clear they will continue with their struggle.

    The debt issue with Aurora was a worry but the quality of the company's assets combined with such a low valuation certainly made it an appealing T/O target, so it was only a matter of time before it was snapped up.

    I have certainly made some good calls, but I am not always right having made some less than satisfactory calls throughout my career. Looking forward to more of your articles and I will be keeping a close eye on Bankers. The one thing I find particularly attractive about the company is that its oil prices are indexed to Brent and I think the differential between WTI and Brent will continue to widen as U.S. shale oil output continues to grow.
    Feb 7 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bankers Petroleum: Massive Resource, Steep Production Growth, Strong Upcoming Catalysts, Significant Undervaluation [View article]
    Dennis

    Thanks for the response and from a logical point of view your totally correct, the company represents superb value and is trading at ridiculously cheap multiples, with a multitude of positive catalysts. I also agree that with Albania seeking entry to the E.U, which I won't happen any time soon, it will certainly do its best to emulate the required economic and governance standards.

    But there is a significant stigma associated with investing in Albania because it is perceived to be a despotic backwater and trapped between an inherently conservative and despotic history, with opaque bureaucratic, legal and regulatory systems. I agree that there are far riskier locations to invest including Russia, most of the former Soviet Union and Africa.

    As a side note I would be much more willing to invest in Colombia or Argentina than Albania, given the degree of country risk is far better documented and understood.

    It will be interesting to see how market sentiment plays out with regard to Bankers.

    Matt
    Feb 6 11:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bankers Petroleum: Massive Resource, Steep Production Growth, Strong Upcoming Catalysts, Significant Undervaluation [View article]
    Hi Dennis

    Great article, Bankers is a company I have been watching for some time.

    It is ridiculously cheap, but it is the uncertainty surrounding operating in Albania combined with investor fear of that jurisdiction which is depressing he share price.

    My only concern is beside the political risk and at times unpredictable decisions of the government, despite the significant catalysts that have the potential to drive the share price higher, investors will never get over their fear of Albania and as such the company will continue to trade at a significant discount relative to its fair-value.
    Kind regards,
    Matt
    Feb 6 05:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canacol Energy Is Fairly Valued But Major Partners Could Create Upside In 2014 [View article]
    Hi Mustangs

    I like Petroamerica and the company is certainly under-valued. But I doubt that at this stage there will be any serious contenders looking at it as a potential acquisition target. The company is too small to attract the interest of major integrated players and what was probably the key suitor Pacific Rubiale is busy digesting its Petrominerales acquisition and its own problems arising from the expiry of its lease on the Piri Rubiales field in June 2016.

    Matt
    Feb 6 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canacol Energy Is Fairly Valued But Major Partners Could Create Upside In 2014 [View article]
    Value Digger,

    Great response and I couldn't agree more.

    Kind regards,

    Matt
    Feb 6 12:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canacol Energy Is Fairly Valued But Major Partners Could Create Upside In 2014 [View article]
    Hi Value Digger
    Another great article, but I agree with Malcolm's comments above. I also feel that you have to a degree down played the potential the company holds given that it has taken the lead in shale oil and gas exploration in Colombia and has such a strong position in the Magdalena Valley which will see explosive growth of the medium to long-term.
    Another attractive aspect of the company is that it is decreasing tariff production and boosting oil production, which will drive higher cash flows and ultimately profitability as operational netbacks per barrel grow.
    I certainly agree that a 100% profit and the redeployment of those funds to other under-values plays is a superb way to manage a portfolio. But for the reasons I have mentioned along with the points raised by Malcolm I believe that there is more upside to come for investors in Canacol.

    Looking forward to your next article,

    Matt
    Feb 5 12:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canacol Energy Is Considerably Undervalued And Offering Significant Potential Upside [View article]
    The reason the attacks on energy infrastructure stepped up in 2010 to 2012 was to bring the government to the negotiating table, since then they have diminished. Attack the largest legitimate export industry in Colombia and cause it significant damage then you are sure to get what you want.

    Since the peace talks began the action they are taking has become more low level and been redirected against softer targets such as the police and civilians (typical Marxist guerrillas).

    The reality about social, economic and land-reform in Colombia is that it will never happen, so as long as it remains as a vassal state of the U.S. the situation will remain in hand with the large amount of aid and advisers being provided as required. Overall it is a heavily fragmented country with significant internal divisions and one that the government in Bogota lacks the ability to control fully without U.S. support.
    Jan 29 02:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canacol Energy Is Considerably Undervalued And Offering Significant Potential Upside [View article]
    Shale oil and gas development in Colombia is going to be very difficult, the lack of infrastructure and expertise means it is really only a play for the big majors who are willing to devote time and resources to developing it. But like heavy oil here, which typically comes from higher risk regions and is more difficult to develop and receives a lower benchmark price than light oil the government has given tax incentives and discounts royalties.

    As for the FARC and security situation it is quite complicated, but I never shy away from traveling to where I need to, regardless of the security situation but I always take the right precautions. I am well known a among the expat community for traveling to places where most Colombians won't go.

    As for the FARC it is a complicated situation, there are the peace talks which have made significant gains, but I don't believe they will end in peace. Plus despite being involved in peace talks they have continued to make their presence felt where they can, there was a recent bombing in Valle de Cauca, which is the department where Cali is the capital, that has been attributed to the FARC.

    But they have certainly lowered their profile and desisted from attacking energy infrastructure. The problem with regard to security is the influence of the ELN and the paramilitaries (Bacrims). Overall I believe based on the geological data available that Colombia holds considerable potential for developing unconventional oil and gas but it will be a long road to get it to the point where it is commercially viable.
    Jan 29 01:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canacol Energy Is Considerably Undervalued And Offering Significant Potential Upside [View article]
    Canacol has the most potential at this based on the market no recognizing that potential and because the company still has plenty of catalysts emerging which will drive its share price higher.

    Colombia is shaping up as Latam's next hotpot for shale oil exploration and production and with Canacol having taken the lead in that area it will add value to the company. Thought as I said earlier it will be a long and bumpy road because shale oil and gas in Colombia is still in its infancy. I was recently in Puerto Boyaca taking a closer look at those opportunities and the Chinese are moving in, in force into the area.
    Jan 28 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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