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Caiman Valores  

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  • Argentinean Energy Stocks: The Nationalization Fear And The Dead Cow Appeal [View article]
    Tack

    While I agree with your take on CFK and her government's populist tactics, that is the nature of politics everywhere. I don't see how a military junta would make the situation any better and it would be an extreme if not unpalatable solution given that they not only destroyed the economy and committed horrendous human rights abuses last time around but also engaged in their own populist rhetoric that led to a war with the U.K over the Falklands.

    I also don't understand how you can claim that CFK or the Argentine government has 'screwed' Chevron?
    Nov 29, 2012. 07:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Argentinean Energy Stocks: The Nationalization Fear And The Dead Cow Appeal [View article]
    Tack I would strongly disagree, firstly it is still possible to value companies operating in Argentina and then it is possible to determine the degree of risk and factor in a risk premium. I believe that the key is correctly identifying this risk and then finding the right risk/reward trade off. Secondly, I believe that you are significantly overstating the risk of expropriation of assets in Argentina. Other than the expropriation of YPF from Repsol, which has a strong rationale behind it, there have been no other expropriations of assets recently.

    Probably more concerning, along with the irrational rhetoric coming from some ministers, is the Argentine government's wholesale intervention in the business sector through heavy handed capital controls, regulatory fines and other punitive measures aimed at preventing the outflow of capital and hard currency from the country. Regardless of this, I believe that it is a highly nuanced situation, but with the right knowledge it can be appropriately managed.
    Nov 29, 2012. 06:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron, A Dividend Champion In Trouble: What Is The Impact Of The Ecuadorian Judgment? [View article]
    Chazsf I doubt that very much as Argentina like the U.S and most other sovereign states (with the exclusion of the EU, Australia, NZ and Canada) has a habit of ignoring these international judicial bodies. Chevron has filed its defense in Argentina, which to the best of my knowledge has not been made publicly knowledge, so it is very difficult to make a call as to which way the Argentine courts will go.
    Nov 29, 2012. 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron, A Dividend Champion In Trouble: What Is The Impact Of The Ecuadorian Judgment? [View article]
    Chris thank you for raising that point. I do mention in the article that Ecuador refused to comply with the Permanent Court of Arbitration's second interim order. However, there is little if anything the Permanent Court of Arbitration's can do to enforce their ruling. It is also extremely unlikely that the Ecuadorian government would find itself in that position because of the enforcement issue combined with the fact that the finding has no legal basis other than in the bilateral trade treaty. The international arbitration panel does not have the ability to overturn the decision of legally constituted court and the judgment has been recognized 'in principal' in a number of foreign jurisdictions including the U.S.
    Nov 29, 2012. 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Bancorp Continues To Perform Strongly, But Is It Overpriced? [View article]
    Howard thank you for the feedback it is appreciated.
    Nov 29, 2012. 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Argentinean Energy Stocks: The Nationalization Fear And The Dead Cow Appeal [View article]
    Value Digger thank you for a nice summary of E&P in Argentina and for covering a much neglected area. I agree that if the right risk reward trade off can be found that there are value investment opportunities starting to emerge at this time in the country for those investors with a high enough risk tolerance.
    Nov 28, 2012. 06:47 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron, A Dividend Champion In Trouble: What Is The Impact Of The Ecuadorian Judgment? [View article]
    wyoshack thank you for the feedback and commenting appreciated.
    Nov 28, 2012. 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron, A Dividend Champion In Trouble: What Is The Impact Of The Ecuadorian Judgment? [View article]
    dmcevoy, I am certain your could certainly add some interesting insight into Venezuela. It has been speculated that if Chevron does not prevent enforcement in Argentina it will leave the country and given that YPF and the Argentine government needs Chevron's investment to access the oil and gas reserves in the Vaca Muerta, far than Chevron needs YPF it will be interesting see how that situation plays out.
    Nov 28, 2012. 12:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron, A Dividend Champion In Trouble: What Is The Impact Of The Ecuadorian Judgment? [View article]
    Jeep thank you for the positive feedback. It was a difficult but compelling article to write. There have been a range of allegations from both sides regarding the conduct of the case and the judgment, with both Chevron and the plaintiffs disputing the final judgment. The plaintiffs were seeking damages of well over double what was finally awarded. Given the bitter nature of the case I think it will be extremely difficult to uncover what actually occurred nor how the judgment was calculated. The only part of the judgment I find somewhat spurious and concerning is the punitive damages awarded by the court after Chevron failed to apologize, which doubled the value of the judgment. If anything that feels like they were trying to get an admission of guilt from Chevron by way of coercion.
    Nov 27, 2012. 09:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron, A Dividend Champion In Trouble: What Is The Impact Of The Ecuadorian Judgment? [View article]
    chazsf some interesting points. A comparison against other integrated oil majors and the oil price would certainly be insightful. But the graph certainly does add some additional and useful perspective to the case at hand.
    Nov 27, 2012. 06:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron, A Dividend Champion In Trouble: What Is The Impact Of The Ecuadorian Judgment? [View article]
    Emmanuel thank you for the feedback and I feel quite honored to have an article compared to those of Felix. I have been following quite closely his superb and informative articles on the Argentine bond saga. I agree Argentina has a habit of finding itself in the middle of complex and bitter legal disputes and it will be interesting to see how both cases play out.
    Nov 27, 2012. 05:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron, A Dividend Champion In Trouble: What Is The Impact Of The Ecuadorian Judgment? [View article]
    dmecvoy thank you for the feedback it is appreciated. You have added some very interesting additional information. The extent of Petroecuador's liability for the environmental damage has been difficult to determine, but Chevron has raised this in the proceedings and as part of the appeal. As you have pointed out with the judgment now handed down, this is unlikely to have any material impact on its enforcement.

    With regard to whether the plaintiffs should be seeking to enforcement the judgment in Venezuela, they have expressed plans to do so but have yet to proceed to lodging a formal application with the Venezuelan courts. Venezuela while a signatory to the Inter-American Convention hasn't ratified it, so it is not binding on the country. This unlike Argentina and Colombia (which have ratified it) makes less likely that they will abide by the treaty. I think that you raise some very good points concerning the political elements in this matter. Chevron also has a solid relationship with the Chavez government and perhaps this will have some impact on whether the judgment will be recognized and enforced.

    I would have to disagree with your view on Argentina. At this time, the Argentine courts by virtue of the country being a signatory to the convention, are obliged to recognize the judgment and freeze the company's assets. This is certainly not the result of a tacit agreement between the Argentine government and Ecuador to enforcement the judgment and it is possible that the same would occur in Colombia if the plaintiffs were to pursue the judgment there. The Argentine courts have a reputation for independence from political influence, and if any thing from a political point of view it is in the current Argentine government's interest to prevent enforcement in the country. Chevron have been given the opportunity to defense the judgment and have filed their defense. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the Argentine courts.
    Nov 27, 2012. 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron, A Dividend Champion In Trouble: What Is The Impact Of The Ecuadorian Judgment? [View article]
    Dave thank you for the feedback, I must admit this has been a labor of love for many months and really only came to fruition with some prompting from fellow contributor Colin Lea after the Argentine courts froze Chevron's assets.
    Nov 27, 2012. 03:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron, A Dividend Champion In Trouble: What Is The Impact Of The Ecuadorian Judgment? [View article]
    Col just took a look at your graph, wish I had have though of that when were discussing the idea for our articles on Chevron. The graph looks great and is a superb visual aid.
    Nov 27, 2012. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron, A Dividend Champion In Trouble: What Is The Impact Of The Ecuadorian Judgment? [View article]
    Grampa Jim thank you for the feedback, it is appreciated.
    Nov 27, 2012. 03:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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