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Caiman Valores  

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  • Lightstream Resources Oversold And Undervalued With Potential Upside In Excess Of 40% [View article]
    River appreciated, it will be interesting to see how the Pacific Rubiales T/O of Petrominerales plays out. Overall I believe it is a huge benefit to PRE. I am going to attempt to submit updates on all SA E&P when I can. But I would also suggest consulting Value Diggers articles he also has his finger on the pulse down here and I have regularly swapped ideas with him.
    Jan 7, 2014. 12:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream Resources Oversold And Undervalued With Potential Upside In Excess Of 40% [View article]
    satyr apparently the powers that be have found my analysis wanting and I have made some bad calls i.e. Gran Colombia (gold miner listed on the TSX that operates in Segovia Colombia and a short on Westpac "wbk".) Unsure of the basis of the decision, but I have to respect managements call will go back to risk work in South America.
    Jan 7, 2014. 12:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream Resources Oversold And Undervalued With Potential Upside In Excess Of 40% [View article]
    River thank you for the kind words.

    I actually ran a cash flow based DCF solely based on reserves, current decline rates and tax rates because of a dispute raised by SA, which has now seen me suspended from contributing and found an intrinsic fair-value per share of around $12. Happy to send you the model if you send me a message with your email address.

    Kind regards,
    CV
    Jan 7, 2014. 12:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • YPF Continues To Look Attractive But Remains High Risk [View article]
    JWD thank you for commenting, at the time of writing this comment YPF has appreciated by 131%,which in less than a year is a substantial gain for investors. It also demonstrates that following market hysteria and hype are the greatest value destroyers for investors. Had investors followed by original articles written at the time of the nationalization rather than panic selling based on media and market hysteria they would not have crystallized a loss.
    Jan 5, 2014. 08:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream Resources Oversold And Undervalued With Potential Upside In Excess Of 40% [View article]
    David

    Nice to see that your commenting under another login which leaves your comments as somewhat questionable. I am certainly not in the 'bullish on Lightstream brigade' and given that I have clearly demonstrated that the company has been able to effectively exploit its assets as explained in the article somewhat confused by your comments.

    Perhaps you can take the time to enlighten both myself and SA readers? I look forward to seeing further details after you have taken the time to understand the valuation methodology.

    Kind regards,

    CV
    Dec 29, 2013. 01:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream Resources Oversold And Undervalued With Potential Upside In Excess Of 40% [View article]
    Steve thank you for taking the time to comment. I will certainly take a closer look at PWT and usually with the companies I follow I provide 6 monthly updates. It may also take some time for Lightstream's turnaround strategy to gain traction.
    Dec 27, 2013. 01:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream Resources Oversold And Undervalued With Potential Upside In Excess Of 40% [View article]
    Richard I have explained the methodology used and I have confirmed that all figures used are correct.

    Do you understand that the valuation is conducted over a 10 year period and uses a number of assumptions to determine the indicative value of the company over the valuation period (much like a DCF but using asset values rather than cash flow), with all end values discounted by 10% to determine their PV. This is in accordance with accepted industry methodology.

    I hope this clarifies the valuation methodology but I would point out that I have already explained this in response to your comments on my previous article on Aurora Oil & Gas. While I appreciate your comments and the insight I do not appreciate having you publicly state that my articles are misleading and incorrect. I had expected that as a SA contributor you are a professional and would conduct yourself accordingly.

    Furthermore, perhaps you need to spend more time understanding both industry and company valuation methods and models before publicly vilifying the work of other contributors. If you contact me directly I would be more than happy to help by providing some references to a number of internet sites that start with the basics of explaining company valuation models.
    Dec 27, 2013. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream Resources Oversold And Undervalued With Potential Upside In Excess Of 40% [View article]
    Richard as I have stated in previous responses the debt as part of the valuation models has been grossed up over the valuation period i.e. 10 years and then discounted back to its PV. The same methodology also applies to the rest of the values used in the NAV including working capital as explained.

    I would suggest that you read the assumptions and take some further time to learn about and understand E&P valuation models. As stated if you believe there is a material error I am more than happy for you to contact me directly and discuss it as industry professionals.
    Dec 27, 2013. 12:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream Resources Oversold And Undervalued With Potential Upside In Excess Of 40% [View article]
    Richard thank you for commenting. I would point out that all figures have been adjusted into U.S$, which explains the discrepancies your alluding to.

    The reason for using pre-royalty reserve figures is because I have factored the royalty rate into the valuation model which is clearly stated in the assumptions so if you had read the article in full you would understand that and see that it is not misleading.

    With regard to the valuation the assumptions used in the valuation model are stated in the article as is the key financial information. If there is material omission please feel free to contact me directly and I will be happy to discuss it further with you.
    Dec 26, 2013. 11:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream Resources Oversold And Undervalued With Potential Upside In Excess Of 40% [View article]
    sheldon thank you for commenting and the additional information. At $5 it certainly appears under-valued given the quality of its assets but managements actions have certainly created significant investor uncertainty as has the high level of leverage to cash flow.
    Dec 26, 2013. 11:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream Resources Oversold And Undervalued With Potential Upside In Excess Of 40% [View article]
    Dr Cash Flow the information I have used on the savings provided by the dividend cut were provided by Lightstream and released to the public. The information is available on the company's investor relations website : http://bit.ly/1fCqMoP.
    Dec 26, 2013. 11:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream Resources Oversold And Undervalued With Potential Upside In Excess Of 40% [View article]
    Michael thank you for commenting and I agree with your views, it is unfortunate that management have not managed their debt as well as they could.
    Dec 26, 2013. 11:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream Resources Oversold And Undervalued With Potential Upside In Excess Of 40% [View article]
    Thank you for the feedback and kind words regarding the charts. It is easier to explain a concept or point of view by way of charts or pictures than it is by words.
    Dec 26, 2013. 11:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream Resources Oversold And Undervalued With Potential Upside In Excess Of 40% [View article]
    Some very good points but the value lies in the company's assets and it is certainly in oversold territory. It is a high risk play but there is a solid risk/reward trade-off for investors who have the stomach for the risk.
    Dec 26, 2013. 11:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lightstream Resources Oversold And Undervalued With Potential Upside In Excess Of 40% [View article]
    satyr thank you for the comments.

    I have been following MLP's articles closely and they were certainly an influence on this article.

    I agree management is a concern and they have avoided dealing with the problems at hand for too long. There is obviously substantial risk but the upside potential is solid and it is clear the company is oversold solely based on the value of its high quality assets.
    Dec 26, 2013. 11:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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