Seeking Alpha

Caiman Valores

View as an RSS Feed
View Caiman Valores' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Tuscany International Drilling: Is Something Rotten? (Part 2) [View article]

    Superb, a lot of information to soak up, you've left me speechless after my previous criticism. Keep up the good work.

    However, I don't share your optimism on Colombia despite the information you have provided. At this stage EC is struggling and overall Colombian oil production will continue to struggle. Unconventional O&G is fast shaping up as the next big play here.

    As for Tuscany I would point out that perhaps it is time to take a closer look at debt covenants and CS' position in relation to their perceived level of risk.

    I would like to see a closer analysis of Tuscany's debt covenants? Having been involved in the wind up of a number of companies it would be interesting to see how they have been structured by CS and what guarantees were given.

    I would just add I didn't take your recommendation to assume a position because my 'gut' told me something was wrong. But thank you for accepting my previous criticism and delivering a superb insight into what is happening.

    Kind regards,

    Feb 16 09:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tuscany International Drilling: Is Something Rotten? (Part 1) [View article]

    The fact remains you made a bad call without knowing the internal situation at the company. While that is part and parcel of stock analysis to then start throwing out tables that show your stock picking performance only adds to my concern.

    I doubt that shareholders will receive any return what so ever and the end game for CS is to recover their money by any means possible in the shortest time possible.

    kind regards,

    Feb 14 02:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chile Poised For A Rebound? Consider iShares MSCI Chile Capped ETF [View article]
    Buenos dias Alexander

    Great article and certainly an interesting thesis. I have been a huge fan of ECH for broad based exposure to what is Latam's most advanced economy for some time. But there are emerging headwinds which will affect its performance. Notably potential tax increases and an economic slowdown in China. Although I don't believe the impact of either will be significant. Looking forward to more articles.

    Cordial saludos,

    Jan 24 09:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wellgreen Platinum: A Gem Amongst The Rubble - Genuine '10-Bagger' Upside [View article]
    Critical Investor I agree with both your views and those of ID and there is certainly a place for the flexible application of the micro-cap policy. But as you have both pointed out I would expect to see clear explanation regarding why the company is a 'ten bagger'.

    Interestingly trading volumes have spiked considerably since this article was published going from volumes of between 20,000 to 60,000 on the TSX to well over 400,000. The stock has also appreciated in value by almost 35% since publication i.e. 2 days. All of which appears quite suspicious, given the lack of credible information provided in the article.
    Jan 23 12:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coming To Grips With Investing In Argentina's Energy Sector [View article]
    TAS I disagree with your comments and it is clear that you didn't read the article in its entirety. The current government while being somewhat erratic has shown a strong degree of pragmatism in the way they manage the economy.

    This is because of the specific needs and structure of the Argentine economy, including the inability to tap credit marks, the need to avoid a balance of payments crisis and to ensure the country remains a net energy exporter. Until those tenets are understood it is difficult to understand what is driving the decision making process.

    I also believe that simplistic comments around religion and Marxism (when the government clearly isn't) demonstrate a lack of understanding and a reliance on emotion as a tool to evaluate and make investment decisions which always ends in a loss.
    Nov 18 11:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Talisman Energy: Troubled Oil And Gas Play Offering Over 50% Upside With Plenty Of Catalysts [View article]
    Keubiko thank you for the feedback I must admit it was a mammoth effort to write because there are so many moving parts in the business. I think the current CEO along with Icahn's presence will certainly drive momentum continue with turning the company around.
    Nov 14 05:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroamerica: This Undervalued Micro-Cap Colombian Oil E&P Offers A Minimum Of 40% Potential Upside [View article]
    Hi Lori

    Thank you for the kind words and feedback. PTA continues to grow rapidly and has the characteristics of a far larger operator but there is a lag the market valuation. It holds considerable promise and is well positioned to continue growing.

    It maybe some time until the TA eventuates but at its current valuation it would be a cheap acquisition for a larger player looking to increase their position in the Llanos basin and access Colombian light crude.

    The most likely candidate would be Pacific Rubiales which is still facing some uncertainty over whether it can renew its lease on the Rubiales field. It also has a voracious growth appetite and could still afford to acquire PTA after completing the Petrominerales acquisition. It would also boost Pacific Rubiales light oil reserves, which it will increasingly need as it expands its heavy oil ops in the Putumayo basin.

    I am a huge fan of Value Digger and enjoy using his work as a starting point. I am hoping to travel to Llanos shortly to review investment opportunities in the Colombian oil patch.

    Kind regards,

    Oct 24 04:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting Petroleum Offers 40%+ Upside For Risk-Tolerant Investors [View article]
    Hi Ceecil thank you for the feedback. There is a lot of information to digest because it is designed to be a comprehensive analysis for sophisticated investors with each subsection designed to support the final net asset valuation. Unfortunately to get a comprehensive analysis of an independent E&P company such as Whiting there is a lot of information required to substantiate the NAV and final thesis.
    Oct 22 06:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whitecap Resources: High Yield, High Growth Play With 30%+ Upside Potential [View article]
    River18 thank you for the feedback and kind words. I must admit I was one of the very few calling YPF a high conviction buy after the company was expropriated by the Argentine government. I also understand the reticence of investors given the erratic nature of CFK and her government, but it is moments like those that a strong stomach is required along with taking the time to make a deeper analysis and see beyond the media hype.
    Oct 5 11:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrominerales: This Beaten Down Stock Is About To Regain Upward Momentum [View article]
    Jan the majority of the company's assets that are valued in the NAV are its proved and probable reserves. Given these assets provide the core part of its production and therefore cash flow and profitability it would be corporate suicide to sell those core assets. The only way they can be monetized is for the oil to be produced and sold. Any further dilution of PMGLF's reserves would also have a significant impact on its value with the company struggling with low replacement rates, high decline rates in its wells and no solid oil discoveries from its exploration program.

    Currently - as Value Digger points out in the article - PMGLF is selling a portion of its midstream pipeline assets, the proceeds of which will be used to pay down its short-term debt and restore the company's short-term liquidity.

    I am not sure whether it is a question of management acting foolishly but more a combination of bad luck (lack of exploration finds) combined with an inability to adapt the company's operations to a dynamic and volatile market.
    Aug 26 02:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Latin McDonald's' Shines Despite Difficulties [View article]
    Manya I would strongly disagree the cost of labor throughout Latin America and in places such as Brazil, Colombia, Peru and Central America is particularly cheap. Furthermore, the employment laws to which you refer typically only exist on paper with little to no enforcement along with large unofficial employment.

    The problem is that Arcos Dorados is trying to apply a universal pricing model that does not take into account local socio-economic conditions. It has also left McDonald's in Latin America perceived as a premium fast food product, which makes it imperative that high levels of quality are maintained increasing the cost base. McDonald's certainly does not have the broad based appeal particularly to low income earners in Latin America as it does in Australia, the U.S. and Canada.

    Overall this leads me to believe that there is a pricing disconnect and until this is dealt with and pricing is aligned to local conditions, Arcos Dorados will struggle to get the same broad based appeal of McDonald's in more developed regions.
    Aug 16 03:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BHP Billiton Is A Buy In A Troubled Industry [View article]
    Bob great article, I am not sure whether I would add to my holdings in BHP at this time, but the premise of your thesis is sound and it is a great well managed geographically and product diversified miner which mitigates risk.

    I would just point out that BHP's Australian issued dividends are withholding tax free, because they are full franked, which means they are paid from taxed corporate profits. The only Australian dividends that are subject to withholding tax are those paid from untaxed corporate profits (unfranked) and that rate is 30%. Withholding tax on unfranked dividends can be offset in the U.S. by virtue of the tax treaty between Australia and the U.S.
    Jun 9 11:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marchers in more than 400 cities across 52 countries took part in protests against Monsanto (MON) today, calling attention to what they say are dangers posed by genetically modified foods. Monsanto is "poisoning our children, poisoning our planet," claims one of the organizers. The company says its seeds help farmers produce more from their land while conserving resources such as water and energy. [View news story]
    Who manufactured Agent Orange? Who manufactures the chemicals used in coca defoliation that have been linked to poisonings and birth defects in Colombia? Sadly the protestors have forgotten about the people who suffer at the hand so of these companies in developing countries. I am not a leftist and in fact many of you may find my right-wing views extreme and repugnant but human beings and sustainable development must come before short-term profits, spin and corporate bonuses.
    May 26 01:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Why BHP Billiton's American Depositary Receipts Trade At Different Prices [View article]
    Salerno thank you for the comments. I would agree that any investor who is not domiciled for tax purposes in Australia would be better off investing in BLT.L or BBL due to the premium attached to BHP.

    The wealth of the Australian economy and the degree of economic risk is a factor because while this does not affect the value of the dividend because it is paid in U.S. dollars it does see investors particularly foreign institutional investors attach a premium to investing in Australian listed companies because of the perceived safe haven status of that economy and the strength of the AUD.
    Apr 10 08:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making The Case For Which BHP Billiton To Own [View article]
    PalmDesertRat Australians pay tax on dividends received whether they be Australian or foreign, because dividends are treated as income, with tax payable at the investors marginal income tax rate.

    The advantage for Australians to hold shares in BHP i.e listed on the ASX, is that the dividends paid are fully franked. This means that tax has already been paid on the profits used to pay dividends at the company level and they receive a franking (tax credit) to offset that taxation to ensure the money is not double taxed.

    This is also the reason for BHP ADR dividends being withholding tax free because any dividend paid by an Australian company to an overseas investor that is fully franked is withholding tax free. Any unfranked (i.e untaxed income distributed as dividends) is subject to a withholding tax of 30% for foreign investors.

    If an inverstor domiciled for tax purposes in Australia then has any residual franking credits after they have been applied against their income, those credits are refunded to the tax payer i.e individual investor. On that basis alone it would be pointless for an investor domiciled in Australia to purchase BHP ADRs on the NYSE.

    As for the difference in the premium between BHP ADRs and BBL ADRs it comes down the to the capital structure that was established for the merger of the two companies along with factoring in the currency valuation differential. These are also the reasons for the difference in dividend yield.
    Mar 30 05:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment