Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Caiman Valores  

View Caiman Valores' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Canacol Energy Undervalued And Set To More Than Double Over The Next Year [View article]
    Secking a very good question and my apologies for not covering this off in the article. From the information to hand concerning the acquisition of Shona, given that a key reason for the acquisition was to access Shona's natural gas operations and leverage off those to enhance revenue and reserve diversification, it would seem logical for that arrangement to proceed. However, I have been unable to find any announcements from Canacol that confirm this.
    Jan 9, 2013. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canacol Energy Undervalued And Set To More Than Double Over The Next Year [View article]
    David thank you for commenting. If you could elaborate on the political environment to which you are referring would be appreciated. The current political, regulatory and economic environment in Colombia couldn't be more conducive for oil and gas exploration and production.

    I am also a little perplexed by your claim that 10:1 reverse splits don't end well. Obviously each has an outcome that is based on the fundamentals of the company, the reasons for conducting such a reverse split and the operating environment. In the case of Canacol the fundamentals are pointing to a substantially higher valuation and the reverse split was completed as a means of tidying up the company's shares outstanding as part of the acquisition of Shona.

    The only oil major with significant operations in Colombia is the Colombian state controlled Ecopetrol and given that is it state controlled with the benefits that come with that, I doubt it is interested in buying out smaller operators. To date the main purchaser of those smaller explorers and producers has been Pacific Rubiales. International oil majors operating in Colombia are more focused on partnerships with existing operators, such as Chevron's offshore gas partnership with Ecopetrol or on unconventional oil gas exploration in the country.

    Of note, is that Pacific Rubiales recently purchased one of Canacol's competitors C&C Energia, which is detailed in my article on Pacific Rubiales http://bit.ly/UUGYsD.

    Thank you for commenting and feliz anos,

    CV
    Jan 8, 2013. 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canacol Energy Undervalued And Set To More Than Double Over The Next Year [View article]
    mjc thank you that is correct. I have been working with SA over the last 2 days since the article was published to have their system updated to the correct ticker and for the tagging to be updated.
    Jan 8, 2013. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caiman Valores Positions For 2013: Colombia, Chile Offer Best Upside In Latin America [View article]
    Tack thank you for the additional info will take a look at the fund. I must admit that listed mutual funds are a little outside of area of expertise and I have never had much in confidence in the ability of active fund managers, but it does appear attractive.
    Jan 7, 2013. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caiman Valores Positions For 2013: Colombia, Chile Offer Best Upside In Latin America [View article]
    martin I agree that caution is required, but I am aware of the price caps and the negative sentiment this has created in the market I believe has created some value opportunities. Overall the problem with Brazilian utilities is the degree of risk, with the sector being heavily regulated and in many cases the utilities themselves are private/public partnerships so that will always create a higher degree of risk.
    Jan 7, 2013. 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caiman Valores Positions For 2013: Colombia, Chile Offer Best Upside In Latin America [View article]
    rcpatrick thank you for the feedback and comments. The primary sources of business and economic news in English for Latam are the mainstream major media channels such as Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com , CNBC and Reuters. For detailed analysis of businesses, stocks and ETFs the major ones are covered by a range of mainstream investing in business news providers such as Barrons but there is a gap in the marker at this time for high quality secondary analysis in English. If there are any specific companies or ETFs you would like coverted or have any specific questions please let me know.
    Jan 6, 2013. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caiman Valores Positions For 2013: Colombia, Chile Offer Best Upside In Latin America [View article]
    ArtfulDodger SBS is on my radar to be reviewed and I hope to publish an article on it soon. There have been some short-term issues regarding Brazilian utilities that have caused their value to drop but I still believe that over the long-term at this time they represent value for investors.
    Jan 5, 2013. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caiman Valores Positions For 2013: Colombia, Chile Offer Best Upside In Latin America [View article]
    Martin

    Thank you for the feedback and additional information. I think YPF was an opportunity to good to miss but there is still some way to go with the company. I agree it is a high risk opportunistic play, but that is where the opportunity to generate a return lies. I do believe in that case many market pundits were overplaying the degree of political risk particularly when it is considered that Argentina needs investment in YPF and for the company to succeed than would normally be the case.

    In the past I have kept away from telcos in the region basically because I don't see the growth opportunities in the sector touted by many pundits or companies like Telefonica (TEF) that operate there. At this stage it is an immature market with low margins and poor infrastructure that requires a significant amount of investment. We are also witnessing increased regulation in this sector across the region, which will also place pressure on margins.

    I would agree that the financial services sector in Chile is the place to look for investments, though it is starting to appear that many of those companies are fairly valued. Overall I think there is a lot of opportunity across Latam in the financial services sector and this has been one of the reasons I have concentrated on analyzing banks in the region.

    Brazilian utilities are looking attractive for investors with a tolerance for risk and I think that the energy sector in Latam is another important place to look for opportunities particularly Colombia because it has lower political and economic risk than Brazil.

    Feliz anos,

    CV
    Jan 4, 2013. 05:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caiman Valores Positions For 2013: Colombia, Chile Offer Best Upside In Latin America [View article]
    Brightoncap that is a very good point it is possible to gain exposure to Colombia via companies domiciled in other countries that do business in Colombia. Other examples include the Canadian domiciled oil and gas companies such as Pacific Rubiales (PEGFF), Petrominerales (PMGLF) and Gran Tierra Energy (GTE).
    Jan 4, 2013. 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing Chevron's Performance In The Last Part Of 2012 [View article]
    Tedishor I am not convinced of Chevron's liability, all I am doing is explaining the legal principals that underscore the case and both the plaintiffs and defendants position in this respect. I would also point out that unfortunately Mark's assessment of the case is flawed and this demonstrates the issues that lie with relying upon one parties version of events without having read the court transcripts or understood the basis of the courts findings. This is a particularly complex case that has seen the inside of a number of different courts in a number of different jurisdictions with many moving parts that can not be easily summarized.

    The U.S courts have also in principle recognized the judgment as being legitimate and rejected Chevron's claims of fraud as a means of blocking enforcement of the judgment http://bit.ly/Ut0fjG. It is unfortunate that my article is not available outside of Pro because it thoroughly explains my view on the matter and why I believe that despite the judgment Chevron still represents a credible value investment at this time.

    Interestingly, the name Lago Agrio was given to Nueva Loja by Texaco at the time it commenced operations there, perhaps that is an indication of intent?
    Jan 4, 2013. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing Chevron's Performance In The Last Part Of 2012 [View article]
    Mark Chevron as the defendant will present their case as strongly as they can in any forum available to them just as the plaintiffs have. The points I have raised are not an interpretation of a legal defense but widely accepted legal principals.
    Jan 3, 2013. 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing Chevron's Performance In The Last Part Of 2012 [View article]
    Mark if I may I would suggest that read my last article on Chevron http://seekingalpha.co.... I would also point out that when you takeover another company i.e Chevron you inherit all of its legal liabilities. The key components to Chevron's defense have been the indemnity agreement and that it isn't liable for Texaco's actions, both of which legally hold no water. To clarify, to claim that evidence is shoddy implies that it is fraudulent or has been tampered with.
    Jan 3, 2013. 09:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing Chevron's Performance In The Last Part Of 2012 [View article]
    Mark an interesting article, I believe at this time that Chevron represents value for investors. I would also like to make some points about the Ecuadoran law suit.

    1. It is being brought by private plaintiffs not the Ecuadoran government and they with the assistance of their U.S. attorney have taken the matter before the Brazilian, Argentine and Canadian courts.

    2. I don't see how based on the evidence, court transcripts and scientific reports that the evidence is shoddy as you claim. Chevron themselves have admitted that significant environmental damage resulted from Texaco's operations in the region, this has also been substantiated by third party scientific reports. For what it is worth I have visited the area and witnessed the damage first hand.

    3. The agreement between the Ecuadoran government and Texaco did not indemnify Texaco from being legally pursued by third parties, only the Ecuadoran government, which meant that the Lago Agrio plaintiffs are well within their rights to pursue a damages action against Texaco.

    4. Chevron fought tooth and nail in the U.S. to have the matter transferred to an Ecuadoran jurisdiction, because the Ecuadoran government at the time was supporting Chevron and the company more than likely believed that the government would use its influence to have the law suit no billed. But in the mean time as the matter was being heard, Correa came to power the political landscape changed significantly in Ecuador as far as the treatment of multinationals operating in the country goes.

    I still believe that even if Chevron were to settle the matter it will have only a minor material impact on the company and the share price. I am more concerned about the Brazilian lawsuit and believe that matter to have been handled to date in an extremely inequitable manner.

    Feliz anos,

    CV
    Jan 3, 2013. 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Emerging Positive Catalysts Ecopetrol Is Fairly Valued [View article]
    BrightonCap thank you for the feedback and comments. Firstly apologies for the error on the refinery margins I thought that I had fixed that to reflect the correct margins. Will submit an error correct asap.

    With regard to the hedges I took a close look at the EC accounts and planned hedges and it wasn't clear from their financial statements how these would impact on the company's revenue. But an oversight on my part and will keep it in mind for future articles.

    Venezuela and the current political situation is proving quite challenging to understand. I initially took the view that the country should be opening itself up again to foreign investment and that there would be a relatively peaceful transition but recent internal events don't indicate that. If that were to occur it would probably be a negative for EC because a lot of their professional staff are Venezuelan and they may leave the company and return to Venezuela, plus with the current state of affairs in Venezuela that country is one of the largest consumers of natural gas produced in Colombia. If the inefficiencies inherent in the current system are removed much of that consumption could be provided by local producers.

    There have been rumors in Bogota for some time now that both EEB and Banco Davivienda are looking to list on the NYSE. I believe that both are solid investments and I look forward to them listing. But with the recent downturn in markets most of the companies here are focused on building market share and strengthening their position in what is now a thriving economy. I have just returned from a 9 month stint in Australia and in that time Bogota has changed dramatically.

    Every one I speak to is hopeful the peace process is successful because it will bring a degree of stability that will not only provide renewed confidence for foreign investors but also allow Colombian businesses to focus on running their business, building market share and providing returns to shareholders rather than being constantly distracted by security issues. I for one am very excited to see the potential and hope to write on Colombian companies seeking to IPO on the NYSE or NASDAQ. 
    Jan 3, 2013. 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Emerging Markets ETFs For 2013 [View article]
    Great summary, I agree on EPU but I am still concerned about the level of political and economic risk in Peru, particularly with increasing social unrest around mining and the resurgence of the Shining Path. Both of which have been poorly managed by the Humala government. I still think that Colombia through GXG and COLX has some steam left in them yet. Feliz ano!
    Jan 3, 2013. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,492 Comments
785 Likes