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Caiman Valores  

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  • China Unleashes $158B Infrastructure Spend [View instapost]
    They are still targeting 7.5% GDP growth which is well below the level that supported the iron ore bubble. Current PMI figures suggest a significant slow down, which I doubt an infrastructure spend will fix. Long and rocky road for Latam's export focused resource dependent economies.
    Sep 9, 2012. 08:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Outlook For YPF Growing More Positive? (Part 1) [View article]
    skwestorange thank you for the feedback, just tidying it up now. My preference is for one article but hard to do YPF justice over one article. Any feedback or specific issues that you would like covered off please let me know.
    Sep 8, 2012. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander (SAN) wastes no time taking advantage of the quick turn in European sentiment, offering €2.5B of 3.5 year paper, and hoping to price it at the same yield it sold 2-year notes for a month ago. Order books closed with €6B in bids from about 400 accounts. Shares +3.2% premarket. [View news story]
    TJ and fmarone I agree with your sentiments. Along with BBVA it is one of the best managed banks in the world with an enviable share of the Latin American market.
    Sep 8, 2012. 02:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Telefonica: Cheap For A Reason (Equity) [View article]
    designshoe thank you for the additional views. The issues aren't solely confined to debt but also to:

    1. Reduced revenue and margin pressures resulting from Spain's deep recession.

    2. The inability to continue growing revenue in Latam and in particular Brazil because of having to cut capex and being unable to fund the development of the infrastructure required to expand along with demographic factors that preclude the development of high margin mature post-paid business.

    3. The ongoing geopolitical risk in Latam including recent regulatory pressure from the Argentine government and the Peruvian government requiring that it reapply for its license.

    All of these factors along with the fire sale of assets at a loss and diminishing cash flows indicate that a recovery in the company is a long way off. Furthermore, we have yet to see any significant recovery in the share price since it started slipping over a year and half ago. I also doubt there will be any significant recovery over the short-term and that for the reasons listed it will remain flat for sometime.
    Sep 7, 2012. 12:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Should Exercise Caution On Vale [View article]
    eremmell thank you for the feedback. I don't think it is an outright case of staying away if you were interested in investing but more of being cautious and watching the key indicators that influence its performance. These include Chinese economic activity, iron ore prices, the taxation and royalties disputes and the actions of the Brazilian government to try and identify a positive turning point before investing.
    Sep 5, 2012. 08:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander-Chile: High Asset Quality And Solid Dividend Is Attractive [View article]
    Kenneth thank you for the feedback. Banco Santander Chile is probably the groups best managed and most profitable operation. It is also a good addition for any income portfolio providing a consistently growing dividend payment with the benefit of international diversification.

    The Santander preferreds are also an investment worth considering. This is quite a good article on the preferreds and worth reading if you are considering the preferreds .
    Sep 2, 2012. 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Should Exercise Caution On Vale [View article]
    shangjeen that is a good question and I have been looking at some agribusiness plays, particularly with the U.S drought affecting corn, wheat and soy prices. While I hate to say this due to the damage the drought has done to U.S farmers it has benefited both Argentina and Brazil where soy is a major product and export. This article by Seeking Alpha contributor Herr Hansa is quite interesting

    The other aspect is that both Brazil and Argentina have designated farmland as strategic assets and put in place laws that prevent/hinder foreign ownership. This makes the barriers to entry in the region quite high and benefits the existing companies operating in the region.

    The main agribusiness companies to look at are CRESY and AGRO. CRESY comes with the baggage of being Argentine but there are some opportunities starting to show themselves in Argentina for investors. I like AGRO but to date I haven't reviewed them or the other companies in detail. There is also CZZ for sugar/ ethanol.
    Sep 1, 2012. 03:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander-Chile: High Asset Quality And Solid Dividend Is Attractive [View article]
    OldWarrior thanks for the feedback. Please feel free to comment, more comments and questions add considerable value for myself and other readers. I get a lot of ideas for articles from readers comments and they also act as a trigger for digging deeper into a company or an issue.

    With regard to the dividends that are posted by various financial sites it is my understanding that most use the net dividend. This seems to be the case with Yahoo Finance, but I couldn't say this with utmost certainty because it seems to change at times.

    I am working on an analysis of BBVA at the moment and will take your comments on board and try to find a better way of presenting the key measures. I was thinking of reducing the number of graphs and focusing on talking to the exceptions, which may help. I will also as you have suggested include more links to further data for those readers who wish to dig deeper.

    Chile has been an amazing turn around story since the end of the Junta and Pinochet. It really is shaping up as a high quality and under rated investment location, with a well developed consumer and financial services sectors. For those investors seeking a more advanced and lower risk country in Latam Chile is the perfect choice and far better than Colombia or Peru and even Brazil.

    I still like the opportunities in Colombia but they do come with considerable risk and also a perception problem. But Colombia has been kind to me investment wise.
    Aug 31, 2012. 11:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Should Exercise Caution On Vale [View article]
    Marcio thank you for the additional insight. I agree with your views the excessive influence of the Brazilian government on the commercial sector is I believe a significant problem for private enterprise operating in Brazil. It may also explain some of the overly optimistic comments from Vale's current CEO.
    Aug 31, 2012. 11:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Should Exercise Caution On Vale [View article]
    sreimer I am not short any equities or commodities at the moment. It has been rumored that there are a number of hedge funds short smaller and over-leveraged iron ore miners like Fortescue but I doubt that extends to Vale. As for the shorting of EWZ there have been some significant long positions established among funds as well.

    I agree that the world's population will continue to grow but China has already reached a point of development where the frenzied activity seen over the last decade won't be seen again. I doubt that India will ever have the same effect on commodity demand for a range of reasons and to be blunt a lot of the commentary about India being the next China is just market puff.

    The countries in Africa are also not going to develop on the scale of China nor are they going to start on that journey in the foreseeable future, the obstacles for the majority of African countries to start developing are insurmountable at this time.

    The pricing for many commodities including iron ore was a speculative bubble that is now deflating. This is seeing those who are most exposed to it bringing out the hackneyed statements about how demand will move back to 2010 levels and boost prices with the modernization of India or the development of Africa.
    Aug 31, 2012. 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Should Exercise Caution On Vale [View article]
    I would agree China's tremendous demand for commodities has significantly distorted markets and the pricing for basic materials along with the prices for those companies that supply them. It has also had a significant impact on the economies that supply basic materials.
    While I believe that China will continue to grow and there will be ongoing demand for basic materials, what we are seeing now is a popping of a bubble created through a majority of suppliers believing that high level of demand will never end and who have invested heavily in increasing production.
    With regard to Brazil I think the demand from China along with government policies have distorted the economic cycle in the country.
    Aug 31, 2012. 08:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Should Exercise Caution On Vale [View article]
    p thank you for the further information.
    Aug 31, 2012. 08:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Should Exercise Caution On Vale [View article]
    Steve, thank you for the feedback. I haven't been able to find that much information on the court case including then the decision is due to be handed down. It really is just a matter of waiting.

    I have been busily working away on the utilities article and hopefully it will be published towards the end of next week.
    Aug 31, 2012. 08:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Should Exercise Caution On Vale [View article]
    Wimryan your probably a little positive than me but everything you have said is right where I am at. For a non-Brazilian it is a particularly hard nut to crack but that said I agree it is probably one of the best mining stocks it just comes with a lot of baggage. I feel that now it will go lower but of the long tern plus $20 is possible.
    Aug 31, 2012. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Should Exercise Caution On Vale [View article]
    DAG I always respect your input. I expected something along these lines and I think it will go deeper. I didn't expect it so suddenly so it has caught me off guard. I am digging now and trying to form a view. But it is hard China's figures are conflicting, Brazil has gone a bit strange and everywhere else in Latam is just saying whatever comes, comes. So I do apologise if I can't be more enlightening. I think this is just one of those situations where we hunker down and hope for the best and watching the leading indicators like the Chinese PMI with Aug data becoming available soon.
    Aug 31, 2012. 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment