Seeking Alpha

Caiman Valores

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Caiman Valores' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Does Wells Fargo Deserve The Attention It Is Receiving From Warren Buffett? [View article]
    pishon thank you for the feedback it is appreciated.
    Nov 21, 2012. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Wells Fargo Deserve The Attention It Is Receiving From Warren Buffett? [View article]
    Ray I would agree and that is very clear from the information presented in its reports and corporate profile. It struck me as being a traditional commercial bank that does primarily what commercial banks are meant to to do, take deposits and make loans. The quality of the management team is also very apparent given its ability to generate a solid NIM and consistently generate the highest RoE of the major banks.
    Nov 21, 2012. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking Past U.S. Banks For Better Returns: Why I Like Canada's Scotia Bank [View article]
    Paulo I hope to publish some further articles on Canadian banks and a comparative analysis between them, U.S banks and Australian banks. I also agree currency risk is a key consideration for investors considering investing in a Canadian or Australian bank and I should have covered this off in further detail in the article. It is also an issue that I will address in later articles.
    Nov 19, 2012. 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking Past U.S. Banks For Better Returns: Why I Like Canada's Scotia Bank [View article]
    Greg thank you for the comment and additional information. I wanted to go into further detail on their international and emerging market exposure but space was at a premium and I thought a back to basics analysis of the company would be the best approach. I would agree that the Canadian banks have stronger balance sheets than their U.S counterparts.

    I am also a fan of Australian banks for many of the same reasons. But what makes Canadian banks stand out in comparison is that they are less reliant on wholesale funding and it is the over-reliance of Australian banks on wholesale funding combined with tighter international credit markets that will create problems for them.
    Nov 19, 2012. 08:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding Bank Of America's True Value: Legacy Assets And Legal Risks Continue To Weigh Heavily On Its Market Price [View article]
    nasa I don't have a favorite stock and I do my best to refrain from becoming emotionally involved when investing because it clouds judgement and creates unnecessary losses. I will admit though that I do have sectors which I won't consider making investments in for ethical reasons such as tobacco or gambling. I also have preferred sectors such as financials (but that may be more to do with my education and background) along with preferred locations in my case South America.
    Nov 19, 2012. 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking Past U.S. Banks For Better Returns: Why I Like Canada's Scotia Bank [View article]
    staypositive thank you for the feedback. I have spent some time analyzing banks with a focus on Latam banks, but I have been trying to find quality banking investments for investors that are in mainstream non-emerging markets that are outside of Europe, with strong balance sheets and are performing profitably. This has seen me start to look more closely at Canadian and Australian banks.
    Nov 19, 2012. 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking Past U.S. Banks For Better Returns: Why I Like Canada's Scotia Bank [View article]
    Paulo thank you for the feedback. I agree the emerging market exposure is what makes it an interesting and compelling investment particularly as this is difficult to obtain with any major commercial U.S bank. I came across Scotia Bank and the idea for this article when researching Peru´s Credicorp some time ago.
    Nov 19, 2012. 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking Beyond The Hype To Find Citigroup's Fair Value [View article]
    AlphaSquare thank you for the feedback. With regard to your questions my responses are below.
    1. The upside is basically derived from the market having unfairly valued C as the business now stands. Much of this has been driven by the negative sentiment from C's near collapse, poor treatment of investors, poor asset quality, failing the last Fed stress test, extensive litigation against the bank and a large pool of substandard legacy assets. This is also being driven by the negative sentiment towards big banks in general as well as the regulatory risk being generated by the uncertainty over the introduction of Basel III. I don't see C having any specific operational or strategic strengths at this time rather that it is being heavily discounted by the market on sentiment thus creating an opportunity for investors.

    2. At this time I couldn't give an informed opinion on the absolute value of C in comparison to other U.S banks, as I typically don't analyze U.S banks, with the exception of BAC. I believe that C represents far better value than BAC. You can read my last analysis of BAC here http://bit.ly/RXvNyz. I am also currently working on a review of Wells Fargo, which will be published in the next week and this should help answer this question. However, when considering a comparative valuation it is always difficult to compare what is now predominantly a commercial bank like C with what are predominantly investment banks like GS or MS or others that are basically retail banks.
    Nov 15, 2012. 10:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding Bank Of America's True Value: Legacy Assets And Legal Risks Continue To Weigh Heavily On Its Market Price [View article]
    benisha I would certainly agree that nasa's view is overly optimistic. The lawsuits will take far longer than 9 months to play out and the legal costs from those will have a significant impact. It is also going to take a significant amount of time for the legacy asset pool to be would down to a level where it will cease having a significant effect on the bank's profitability. Even if the housing market rebounds significantly this will not be enough to have a significant impact on the bank's profitability because of the other significant and multiple issues affecting the bank.
    Nov 14, 2012. 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gafisa: A Speculative Play On Brazilian Residential Property [View article]
    HI David

    Thank you for the comment. I am in the process of reviewing Gafisa on the back of its latest earnings and hope to publish an article on this shortly.

    regards,

    CV
    Nov 14, 2012. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking Beyond The Hype To Find Citigroup's Fair Value [View article]
    untrusting investor again some very good points, overall I think we are taking a similar approach to investing but coming at it from different angles, plus I am little more optimistic in my view of the market. One thing I definitely agree on though, is the approach that your taking towards tech stocks. While this sector is well outside of my area of expertise I believe that many companies in the sector are over valued, with some of the companies like HPQ representing value traps. I appreciate your comments and the additional perspective that you bring to the articles as this only improve the experience for other readers and I look forward to more comments.
    Nov 13, 2012. 12:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking Beyond The Hype To Find Citigroup's Fair Value [View article]
    Patience and a strong stomach is the key to Citigroup and continue to be so for some time. But as the numbers show this will pay off over the long-term.
    Nov 12, 2012. 11:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking Beyond The Hype To Find Citigroup's Fair Value [View article]
    jmartz you have raised some very interesting points. When I started this analysis I had quite a lot of negative sentiment towards Citigroup and did not expect to make the call that I did. Overall the positives outweigh the negatives and the recent management changes are a huge plus for investors, with every indication that the bank will go back to basics and continue to build a sustainable business. This should see the bank stay focused on rebuilding its core business, mitigating risk and the necessary cultural changes to continue the recovery.

    I was never a big fan of Pandit's strategy of focusing on growth in emerging markets because banks from those markets do a far better job than Citigroup at a lower cost and with far better local knowledge. I would rather see the bank focused on rebuilding its core U.S business, which while delivering less spectacular returns and growth opportunities will see a more solid sustainable business emerge.
    Nov 12, 2012. 11:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron Demonstrates Impressive Free Cash Flows [View article]
    Bax they certainly won't be but other than CVX's appeal against the court order preventing them from continuing to operate in the country there hasn't been any material progress in the case. Again, Brazil only contributes a small amount of revenue and it will be the potential fines of up to $22 bn that will be the issue. Determining the outcome of that case is far more difficult than determining whether the Lago Agrio plaintiffs will be able to successfully enforce the Ecuadorian judgment.

    I am currently in the process of pulling together an article on the Ecuadorian judgement, its likelihood of enforcement and the worst case impact on Chevron. I will also do the same once there is material progress on the Brazilian case. 
    Nov 12, 2012. 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking Beyond The Hype To Find Citigroup's Fair Value [View article]
    Hi Bax thank you for the comment. BBVA and SAN are very different beasts and I prefer BBVA to the major U.S banks primarily because it is a less complex, easier to assess and monitor commercial bank that is trading a solid discount to its fair value, rather than being a mixed commercial and investment bank with a substantial trading and wealth management business.

    When I set out to analyze Citigroup my view of the business was a lot more negative, but it is clear that the bank has improved may aspects of its performance and continues to deleverage and reduce risk. When this is considered in conjunction with such a high margin of safety on the indicative fair value and that it is trading at a significant discount to its tangible book value it does become quite an appealing investment.

    However,there are still significant reputational issues to be overcome along with some litigation, legacy asset charges and costs and tax issues that will continue to affect market sentiment towards the bank. Thus making it the domain of patient risk tolerant investors.
    Nov 12, 2012. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,492 Comments
785 Likes