Seeking Alpha

Caiman Valores

View as an RSS Feed
View Caiman Valores' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Is The Outlook For YPF Growing More Positive? (Part 1) [View article]
    Thank you for the update . If it is possible please keep us updated on the progress of the play obviously at this time your in the money.
    Sep 28 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grupo Financiero Santander México: Another High Quality Bank In The Santander Group [View article]
    You should be you have a degree of insight and understanding that can add value! I would love to see an article and I am sure the editors would as well. If you need and assistance or guidance please feel free to message me.
    Sep 28 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Outlook For YPF Growing More Positive? (Part 1) [View article]
    Jeremy while I disagree particularly on the point on Repsol looting the company, which I agree is quite strong language you have raised some good points. However, the numbers to present a strong juxaposition to your argument and the control of private property is only ever subject to the utility that the controlling power ever derives from it. Unfortunately as the numbers show YPF is better in the hands of erratic CFK Argentina than cool and calculated but lazy Repsol. Perhaps the line in the sand needs to go the other way absentee foreign ownership and expropriation of captial for the benefit of others will no longer be tolerated.
    Sep 28 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Outlook For YPF Growing More Positive? (Part 1) [View article]
    Oldwarrior I tend to take what CFK and the Argentine government say with a grain of salt but after checking the financials over the last 6 years combined with reviewing company statements, press releases etc it became clear that essentially as you have put it Repsol were looting the company.

    I wholeheartedly agree that the Argentine govt has handled the matter very poorly and further stained an already troubling past in the management of economic and business affairs. What makes it worse is if they had of left it solely at YPF and then worked hard to show a clearer and more transparent approach towards economic matters and regulation you could almost forgive them. But now they are appearing to be extremely erratic, for want of better words more erratic than a drunken sailor after an all night bender.

    I don't particularly like REITs but then again I am not into investing for dividends, I tend to look for undervalued growth opportunities hence the interest in YPF. The second part is available here http://seekingalpha.co... .

    Nice for you to drop by and looking forward to more comments. on a side note I have been taking a closer look at Argentine banks such as BBVA Banco Frances and I am hoping to publish an update on the BBVA group shortly.
    Sep 28 03:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Telefonica: Cheap For A Reason (Equity) [View article]
    That was a good price for TEF. I don't believe that the dividend payment will recommence next year, but at that price there is certainly some value.

    I really like TEO and I wrote an article on the state of the Argentine telco sector sometime ago http://seekingalpha.co... but the situation has obviously developed further with the recent shenigans around the government stating it will start its own provider, change licensing laws and more closely examine TEF's convoluted ownership arrangement of TEO which they believe is in breach of their anti-monopoly laws.

    One of my regular followers has asked for an update so I will be looking into that shortly. I haven't been submitting articles over the last two weeks as I have been quite busy conducting research on the extra-territorial application of U.S money laundering legislation in Latam, but hopefully will be able to get back to working on my articles this weekend.
    Sep 28 03:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Telefonica: Cheap For A Reason (Equity) [View article]
    I doubt that you'll see TEF at over $20 for sometime to come. Austerity measures are biting deeper in Spain and Brazil has significant structural economic problems combined with a UK recession all of which is deeply impacting revenues in these its core markets.

    There are also issues in its other key Latam markets ranging from the risk of higher regulation in Argentina and Peru, possible expropriation in Argentina and saturated highly competitive markets across Latam where in many cases the company is struggling to grow market share. All of which adds to its cost base at it has to pro-actively manage those issues.

    Essentially for the short-term I see TEF as dead money and not much significant upside for the medium to long-term primarily due to the debt issues, sale of growth assets and lack of capex in infrastructure in its growth markets.

    I also did some FCF to equity cals and a full DCF not long ago and came up with a valuation range of between USD$13 to USD$17 per share depending on the assumptions used.

    I think in the telco sector there are better opportunities for investors, but obviously if you bought TEF at around $12 there is some value.
    Sep 27 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Outlook For YPF Growing More Positive? (Part 2) [View article]
    high sierra some very good points. I think a balance needs to be found in any emerging market between maximizing the value for investors in natural resources and the benefit derived by the country and its people. Obviously if it is skewed either way then there will be serious side effects.

    With regard to the relaxation of oil price controls the key issue with doing that while Repsol was majority owner is that profits were being off shored giving little if any economic benefit to Argentina either directly or indirectly. Plus the company was clearly unwilling to make the investment necessary while maximizing the return it was receiving from YPF. This was clearly exacerbating Argentina's balance of payments situation and the outflow of capital from the country by an absentee foreign owner.

    While I am certainly not attempting to apologize for the actions of an erratic and unstable government there is a degree of pragmatism at work on the government's behalf. It also has to be accepted that Respol's management were at best complacent regarding YPF and incompetent at worst.
    Sep 27 09:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Outlook For YPF Growing More Positive? (Part 2) [View article]
    rv3lynn that could very well be the case, but Chevron certainly do bring a greater set of skills and experience to the table that YPF would struggle to find anywhere else. Plus they have a history of being willing to take greater risks in Latam than other oil majors.
    Sep 27 09:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Outlook For YPF Growing More Positive? (Part 2) [View article]
    McDowell it is certainly an important consideration and I have discussed it in the risks. However, to do it justice would require an article solely on that issue. There are a wide range of reasons that make a case for Argentina to reimburse Repsol but the amount is unclear as there are also a number of extenuating circumstances. The other issue is that as a pariah state it is impossible to practically enforce any legal action that Repsol will take against Argentina. In which case a pragmatist would argue from the Argentine point of view why reimburse Repsol if they can't make us pay.
    Sep 27 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Outlook For YPF Growing More Positive? (Part 2) [View article]
    Thank you RulingTheMarkets for the positive feedback. I hope the second part made my investment thesis clearer.
    Sep 27 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Outlook For YPF Growing More Positive? (Part 1) [View article]
    RulingTheMarkets thank you for the feedback. I would be very interested in hearing about how your investment plays out. I believe there is value to be found in Argentina despite the ongoing political mess and while there maybe no return in the short-term over the medium to long-term I believe that investors will be rewarded for taking that additional risk. Also YPF is sitting on possibly the world´s largest shale oil field so it is almost a no brainer to take some exposure and it is an obvious reason why Chevron has taken the plunge.
    Sep 27 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Outlook For YPF Growing More Positive? (Part 1) [View article]
    rv3lynn thank you for the positive feedback. My goal was to look at the company primarily from the perspective of existing investors such as yourself rather than promoting it as an investment opportunity. The motivation was the significant news we are seeing regarding the company combined with the lack of analytical coverage.
    Sep 27 09:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Outlook For YPF Growing More Positive? (Part 1) [View article]
    Thanks OldWarrior for pointing that out it should be billion, typo on my part and I will have it rectified.
    Sep 27 09:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Outlook For YPF Growing More Positive? (Part 1) [View article]
    Jan I am certainly not biased nor pro-CFK I am only attempting to set out the facts as I see them based on the evidence available. I would argue that Repsol certainly have not entered this situation with clean hands of a clear conscience and the numbers on YPF clearly indicate that they had the company is run-off mode for sometime milking it for the dividend.

    This is not a good situation for either share holders in YPF or Argentina considering that the company is solely dependent upon a trade surplus to generate income as it can´t tap international credit markets. However, despite my view I think your last point hits the nail on the head as to the real motivation for the nationalization.
    Sep 27 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Outlook For YPF Growing More Positive? (Part 1) [View article]
    Bax certainly no political agenda particularly with regard to CFK and her govt. Just trying to give a balanced view based on the evidence available. I would also point out that Repsol were certainly running the company down and milking it for the dividend and failing to reinvest in the company and its future growth. Even a cursory review of the numbers indicate that.
    Sep 27 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,492 Comments
779 Likes