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Caiman Valores

 
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  • Is The Outlook For YPF Growing More Positive? (Part 1) [View article]
    Bax certainly no political agenda particularly with regard to CFK and her govt. Just trying to give a balanced view based on the evidence available. I would also point out that Repsol were certainly running the company down and milking it for the dividend and failing to reinvest in the company and its future growth. Even a cursory review of the numbers indicate that.
    Sep 27 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Outlook For YPF Growing More Positive? (Part 1) [View article]
    Jack while I do take a particularly negative view of the Argentine govt´s recent shenanigans which won´t assist in promoting foreign investment I do agree with your thoughts. I have also considered taking a look at the smaller foreign players in the Vaca Muerta.
    Sep 27 09:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Outlook For YPF Growing More Positive? (Part 1) [View article]
    p_salerno thank you for the feedback, a very interesting investment on your part. I would be very interested to hear back as to how it plays out for you.
    Sep 27 09:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Outlook For YPF Growing More Positive? (Part 1) [View article]
    Thanks Col, certainly wasn´t the easiest article to write and as I am sure both Bax and Jeremy will point out it is basically a dead company for a number of reasons at this time. I wrote the article primarily out of interest to see where recent developments placed the company and what its future outlook would be, particularly as there a number of retail investors still holding shares after nationalization.
    Sep 27 09:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Outlook For YPF Growing More Positive? (Part 1) [View article]
    Jeremy thanks for dropping by I hope part 2 clarifed the overall thesis.
    Sep 27 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Outlook For YPF Growing More Positive? (Part 1) [View article]
    Bax some very good points and I agree with your view, a lot of that will become clearer in the second part of the article. This is the unfortunate problem with splitting such an article over two parts. Ultimately the political risk does make the company dead money particularly with the ongoing random outbursts coming from the Argentine government regarding the telco sector. It seems that even political and economic pragmatism has been cast aside to be replaced by a directionless political ideology. But again that is discussed in the second part.
    Sep 27 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Outlook For YPF Growing More Positive? (Part 1) [View article]
    Very good points Andre and this is covered off in part 2 of the article.
    Sep 27 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keep An Eye On Ecopetrol For A Shorting Opportunity [View article]
    Abraxas my pleasure. I actually found this article quite intriguing and thought your comment was an excellent overview of why EC isn´t a candidate for shorting.

    The modernization of the company´s Cartagena refinery will be a huge plus as it should see an increase in the production capacity particularly for higher margin light fuel products which are in higher demand. This will boost margins and profitability and help to offset the risks created by the company´s low reserves and to date somewhat disappointing exploration results by making it bigger downstream player.
    Sep 27 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grupo Financiero Santander México: Another High Quality Bank In The Santander Group [View article]
    Advill thank you the feedback is appreciated. That is a very good point on the PE ratios and it one of the reasons why I think that SAN represents far better value than its independently listed subs. Obviously along with the diversification. But for those investors seeking specific exposure to U.S listed Latam bank both Santander Chile and Mexico represents strong contenders.
    Sep 27 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grupo Financiero Santander México: Another High Quality Bank In The Santander Group [View article]
    Vincent thank you appreciated, my oversight. Have you thought about becoming a contributor?
    Sep 27 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grupo Financiero Santander México: Another High Quality Bank In The Santander Group [View article]
    Bax a very interesting question and a lot of it comes down my style of investing and the longer-term opportunities I see with BBVA particularly with regard to Latam that have been undervalued by the market. I hope to expand on that in a two piece article on BBVA I have been working on, but a lot of it comes down to BBVA´s position in Latam´s most unloved markets of Venezuela and Argentina (I know that comment will not make me many friends) and its strong franchises in Colombia and Chile with a dominant position in Mexico.

    Overall I think with SAN and BBVA it comes down to personal preference, though SAN appears to have made some questionable business decisions, though these have certainly not detracted from its overall appeal as an investment.

    Apologies for not answering your message will get on to that today. I have been away for a while conducting some research.
    Sep 27 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grupo Financiero Santander México: Another High Quality Bank In The Santander Group [View article]
    Austin thank you! I would actually be quite interested in meeting my readers. Will certainly be discussing some ideas I have around that with Seeking Alpha.
    Sep 27 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grupo Financiero Santander México: Another High Quality Bank In The Santander Group [View article]
    Vincent thank you for the additional info. A very interesting history indeed I would be very interested in being able to find out the reasoning behind the transactions.
    Sep 27 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grupo Financiero Santander México: Another High Quality Bank In The Santander Group [View article]
    Thanks Fidel I was just trying to get a feel for whether it is a worthwhile investment as I was a little cynical at first given the history of BSBR since it floated in 2009. But the numbers around asset quality and financial performance do show a particularly strong business.
    Sep 27 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Telefonica: Cheap For A Reason (Equity) [View article]
    All of the factors I have mentioned have been priced in by the market and that is why TEF is still significantly down.

    The company also needs to make considerable capex investments in Latam especially Brazil if it is too tap the local market and it will be sometime before it sees a sizeable return for those investments. Furthermore, given the need to pay down its mountain of debt with its FCF it has had to slash its capex program delaying that expansion.

    Brazil also currently lacks not only the infrastructure to support a smartphone service but also the broad based middle class to make such a roll out financially sustainable. I don't see any significant uptake in smartphones in Brazil for sometime primarily due to the country's social demography.

    The outlook for Europe and particularly Spain for the short to medium-term is also still quite negative economically and this will have a significant impact on revenues for some time. Spain is nowhere near recovery with unemployment over 20% and the ongoing implementation of austerity measures are having further economic impacts.

    The assets being sold were once seen as key assets to allow growth and are now being sold at prices far below the value at which they purchased. This would indicate that it will be reliant solely upon organic growth where the majority of its markets are suffering significant economic down turns and consumer spending is falling. Besides destroying shareholder value this again indicates that it will be sometime before the company experiences any growth.

    The sovereign risk in Spain is abating but the economic risk is still quite high and will remain high for the foreseeable future. I doubt there will be any significant economic recovery in TEF's core market for the short to medium-term. This is going to have a significant impact on revenue.
    Sep 27 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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