MBIA Court Case Outcome Looks Favorable [View article]
Looks like someone got coal in their stocking. . . I want this article to be a starting point for people who are interested in MBI's case. The result of this case is massive for MBIA. If a favorable outcome is reached, MBIA will get back billions of dollars from Bank of America. Bank of America made fraudulent statements, and those statements "do not have to be linked directly to the defaults." Think about that for a minute. How hard do you think that is to prove now?
The Outlook For KB Home Continues To Improve [View article]
I also am long KBH. However, I am bearish in the short-to-near-term because the market is over heated. A downward correction is likely with the VIX at a 54-month low, and KBH will be a stock that people are scared to hold. Based upon those assumptions I am selling my KBH into the short-term surge, and going to buy it back during the downturn.
KB Home To Blow Past Earnings: How To Profit With Options [View article]
In my opinion, super-short-term KBH is going to get a bounce. The 10% correction is an over-reaction. However, I would hold off on any move which is longer than 1 month or which has a strike higher than $11.
I do not like the over all market in the short-term. The VIX is at a 54 month high, which suggests a downward market adjustment. I still think KBH is going to outperform the market after the readjustment.
2 reasons why KBH will outperform after the readjustment:
A) Many of their competitors got wiped out by the recession. So KB Homes is well positioned to take advantage of a renewed housing uptrend.
B) Credit is cheap. 0.25% is a historically low RF rate. The low rate means that risk adverse investors (former T-bill investors) will have to go else where to gain an acceptable risk-free return. Real estate and housing developments act as a replacement asset class for these risk-adverse investors.
The housing market is not coming back as quickly as I previously thought. KBH's missed earnings supports this conclusion. (Keep in mind KBH's earnings miss took into account a large Las Vegas loss) I'd watch the earnings releases of KB Home's close rivals (LEN, DHI, RYL) to get a more complete picture of the housing market.
Fossil Continues To Be A Global Winner [View article]
Yeh, maybe in the short-to-near term a reduction of position size wouldnt be a bad idea. However, if they beat or make earnings the bubble will be justified.
Magic Jack Is Solving The Home Phone Problem And Market Is Catching On [View article]
Hey guys,
Thanks for all the comments. It is clear yall have also done some great research.
I just wanted to clear up what I am saying in my article. I do not suggest that investing in Magic Jack in the long-run is a good idea right now. Magic Jack needs to prove to me that they can compete with all of the other high-tech phone services out there and keep their churn rates down.
In my article I propose a short-to-near-term investment in Magic Jack with a risk protected options play. I do not think there are enough concrete numbers on Magic Jack for analyst to create good estimates of their earnings this quarter. Their sales of their new product is strong, and consumers are looking for value. That's the base of my argument. If you don't believe those two facts then you should not invest in Magic Jack.
Keep up all the good work everyone! We will see who knows what on Monday!
MBIA Court Case Outcome Looks Favorable [View article]
I want this article to be a starting point for people who are interested in MBI's case. The result of this case is massive for MBIA. If a favorable outcome is reached, MBIA will get back billions of dollars from Bank of America. Bank of America made fraudulent statements, and those statements "do not have to be linked directly to the defaults." Think about that for a minute. How hard do you think that is to prove now?
The Outlook For KB Home Continues To Improve [View article]
KB Home To Blow Past Earnings: How To Profit With Options [View article]
I do not like the over all market in the short-term. The VIX is at a 54 month high, which suggests a downward market adjustment. I still think KBH is going to outperform the market after the readjustment.
2 reasons why KBH will outperform after the readjustment:
A) Many of their competitors got wiped out by the recession. So KB Homes is well positioned to take advantage of a renewed housing uptrend.
B) Credit is cheap. 0.25% is a historically low RF rate. The low rate means that risk adverse investors (former T-bill investors) will have to go else where to gain an acceptable risk-free return. Real estate and housing developments act as a replacement asset class for these risk-adverse investors.
The housing market is not coming back as quickly as I previously thought. KBH's missed earnings supports this conclusion. (Keep in mind KBH's earnings miss took into account a large Las Vegas loss) I'd watch the earnings releases of KB Home's close rivals (LEN, DHI, RYL) to get a more complete picture of the housing market.
KB Home To Blow Past Earnings: How To Profit With Options [View article]
KB Home To Blow Past Earnings: How To Profit With Options [View article]
Fossil Continues To Be A Global Winner [View article]
Fossil Continues To Be A Global Winner [View article]
6 Reasons To Buy Halliburton Stock While It Is Still Cheap [View article]
I agree my article proves it: http://seekingalpha.co...
Recently heard the CFO talk at a conference. BELIEVE IT.
Magic Jack Is Solving The Home Phone Problem And Market Is Catching On [View article]
Thanks for all the comments. It is clear yall have also done some great research.
I just wanted to clear up what I am saying in my article. I do not suggest that investing in Magic Jack in the long-run is a good idea right now. Magic Jack needs to prove to me that they can compete with all of the other high-tech phone services out there and keep their churn rates down.
In my article I propose a short-to-near-term investment in Magic Jack with a risk protected options play. I do not think there are enough concrete numbers on Magic Jack for analyst to create good estimates of their earnings this quarter. Their sales of their new product is strong, and consumers are looking for value. That's the base of my argument. If you don't believe those two facts then you should not invest in Magic Jack.
Keep up all the good work everyone! We will see who knows what on Monday!
CL.