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Calder H. Lamb

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  • China Admits Its Growth Problem Is Sparking Social Unrest [View article]
    China has had a history speckled with periods of unity and disunity. I agree that an economic slowdown will expose the cracks in their economy. The Chinese people are sick of not having a voice, and the government has been slow to give them one. The growth of the economy and the hope of future wealth is what is keeping China together. When that is gone, China will have her hands full. Thanks for the article. -CL
    Apr 9, 2012. 07:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keynes, Marx, And Bernanke [View article]
    I agree that loan cash is almost the same as inflation. Increasing the ease of getting a loan is essentially the same as the Fed printing new money.

    However, as an economic indicator I am not sure loan cash in general will be as telling as you suggest it to be. A more refined indicator might be cash which is loaned to those with higher historical default rates. The more loan risk which banks are willing to take on; the more risk on systematic bank failure. As seen during the sub-prime crisis.
    Apr 6, 2012. 12:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Ways To Play Google Earnings [View article]
    This is a really great article. Your recommendation of the reverse iron condor is great advice on this earnings trade.

    You could also go further with the rev. iron condor suggestion. With the VIX likely to rise, the rev. iron condor is a great way to benefit from increased volatility in the market. The risk / reward are limited, but when trading shorter-term options this is very beneficial.
    Apr 5, 2012. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keynes, Marx, And Bernanke [View article]
    Great article. I always enjoy hearing a good economic debate. One question: Have you considered the possibility that the Fed wants the real wage to stay stagnated? A stagnate real wage would increase the demand for labor, and help offset the unemployment problems. As the economic numbers have shown, unemployment is slowly falling. Increases in capital with increases in labor costs would lead to a future decrease in labor demand (because the payoff ratio between capital / labor inputs would begin to favor capital). So the Fed could simply be trying to stave off the natural move away from labor inputs with the increased amount of cheap capital. In this way, the Fed could be attempting to increase consumption of the public by generating a disproportionate amount of jobs.

    The future consequences of this kind of a strategy would be a decrease in future capital investment, an increase in public debt (due to a stagnate real wage), and an increase in the proportional cost of commodities to the average consumer. (aka a decrease in spendable income). These results have been observable in the economic data of the past, and are likely to continue into the future if the Fed continues to artifically stimulate job growth. (note the increased occurrence of jobless recoveries).

    I think you partially agree with this position, but I would be interested to know where your opinion differs.

    Thanks for the article. CL
    Apr 5, 2012. 03:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MBIA Court Case Outcome Looks Favorable [View article]
    S&P Equity analyst state that the tangible book value of MBIA is $ 8.80 per share. If I had to place a long range price floor, I would set it around $ 8.80. The toxic assets that MBIA insured are not likely to get much worse than they are now. In the short-run, prices can vary widely from the tangible book value because of uncertainty, negative news, and fear.
    Apr 3, 2012. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MBIA Court Case Outcome Looks Favorable [View article]
    I am not sure whether or not they will win case 78, I think it is a toss up in this case. Whether or not MBIA's restructuring was illegal will come down to the timing and magnitude of the restructuring changes. Plus since the Superintendent approved the split, this decision has to be over turned.

    I believe the crux of the case is how the court interprets the job of the Superintendent position. The expert witness for banks testified that the Superintendent's stated goal is to "reinvigorate the market for municipal bonds by making insurance for those bonds available was within the mission of the NYID." All of the former Superintendents also seemed to agree with the expert's analysis.

    Negative public opinion of the financial / insurance industry coupled with unclear precedents could move courts and juries in favor of a stronger regulators. To decide against MBIA the court will have to go against the decision of the Superintendent. This will require an extremely strong case by the banks. The courts do not take overturning the decisions of government leaders lightly.

    I would like to hear you synopsis on the MBIA situation. It is obvious that you have done you homework, and I find it hard to locate people care/know about this case.

    The sur-reply can be found here:
    All of MBIA's court case data:
    Apr 2, 2012. 08:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MBIA Court Case Outcome Looks Favorable [View article]
    Looks like someone got coal in their stocking. . .
    I want this article to be a starting point for people who are interested in MBI's case. The result of this case is massive for MBIA. If a favorable outcome is reached, MBIA will get back billions of dollars from Bank of America. Bank of America made fraudulent statements, and those statements "do not have to be linked directly to the defaults." Think about that for a minute. How hard do you think that is to prove now?
    Apr 1, 2012. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Outlook For KB Home Continues To Improve [View article]
    I also am long KBH. However, I am bearish in the short-to-near-term because the market is over heated. A downward correction is likely with the VIX at a 54-month low, and KBH will be a stock that people are scared to hold. Based upon those assumptions I am selling my KBH into the short-term surge, and going to buy it back during the downturn.
    Mar 26, 2012. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KB Home To Blow Past Earnings: How To Profit With Options [View article]
    In my opinion, super-short-term KBH is going to get a bounce. The 10% correction is an over-reaction. However, I would hold off on any move which is longer than 1 month or which has a strike higher than $11.

    I do not like the over all market in the short-term. The VIX is at a 54 month high, which suggests a downward market adjustment. I still think KBH is going to outperform the market after the readjustment.

    2 reasons why KBH will outperform after the readjustment:

    A) Many of their competitors got wiped out by the recession. So KB Homes is well positioned to take advantage of a renewed housing uptrend.

    B) Credit is cheap. 0.25% is a historically low RF rate. The low rate means that risk adverse investors (former T-bill investors) will have to go else where to gain an acceptable risk-free return. Real estate and housing developments act as a replacement asset class for these risk-adverse investors.

    The housing market is not coming back as quickly as I previously thought. KBH's missed earnings supports this conclusion. (Keep in mind KBH's earnings miss took into account a large Las Vegas loss) I'd watch the earnings releases of KB Home's close rivals (LEN, DHI, RYL) to get a more complete picture of the housing market.
    Mar 25, 2012. 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KB Home To Blow Past Earnings: How To Profit With Options [View article]
    And its not all bad:
    Mar 23, 2012. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • KB Home To Blow Past Earnings: How To Profit With Options [View article]
    I was wrong and I paid the price (literally). I was a little over optimistic about the housing market. I am sorry to my readers for my mistake.
    Mar 23, 2012. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fossil Continues To Be A Global Winner [View article]
    Yeh, maybe in the short-to-near term a reduction of position size wouldnt be a bad idea. However, if they beat or make earnings the bubble will be justified.
    Mar 21, 2012. 07:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fossil Continues To Be A Global Winner [View article]
    Its all about getting a piece of global growth my friend. The big boys want in too.
    Mar 20, 2012. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons To Buy Halliburton Stock While It Is Still Cheap [View article]
    I completely agree with your conclusions.

    I agree my article proves it:

    Recently heard the CFO talk at a conference. BELIEVE IT.
    Mar 20, 2012. 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magic Jack Is Solving The Home Phone Problem And Market Is Catching On [View article]
    Hey guys,

    Thanks for all the comments. It is clear yall have also done some great research.

    I just wanted to clear up what I am saying in my article. I do not suggest that investing in Magic Jack in the long-run is a good idea right now. Magic Jack needs to prove to me that they can compete with all of the other high-tech phone services out there and keep their churn rates down.

    In my article I propose a short-to-near-term investment in Magic Jack with a risk protected options play. I do not think there are enough concrete numbers on Magic Jack for analyst to create good estimates of their earnings this quarter. Their sales of their new product is strong, and consumers are looking for value. That's the base of my argument. If you don't believe those two facts then you should not invest in Magic Jack.

    Keep up all the good work everyone! We will see who knows what on Monday!

    Mar 10, 2012. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment