Calder H. Lamb's  Instablog

I am currently working on a new personal project. I have decided to create a model which will analyze trends between international markets. The Model is loosely based around the Kelly Crition (sports betting) and revolves around the idea of momentum.

If my theory is correct, the world has become so globalized that there is very little difference between one market to the next. I think there are relationships bettween these markets, and by understanding these relationships a trading edge can be gained.

Evidence:
-Companies are massive globalized.
-The same news is availbe at realitively the same speeds.
-Large swings in the markets are usually attributed to large global issues. (Oil, Greece, Chinese Economy, ect)
-Markets Open at different times and the securites listed are becoming more and more globally distriubuted.

Contact me if you are interested. Or are doing simliar research.

CL

AAPL Bull Call Spread

Apple scheduled to release its Ipad 3 on March 7th, 2012. It is rumored that the Apple TV may be announced as well. PC Magazine reports that Apple has been getting their supply chains ready for a "next-generation TV" which is scheduled for release in Qt 2, or Qt 3. PC Magazine states,

"In December, it was reported that Apple was revving up its supply chain in order to deliver components for next-generation television products due out in the second or third quarter of 2012.

What's more, South Korean media reported late last year that Samsung began producing chips for next-generation Apple TVs back in November, while Sharp is reportedly supplying the displays for the units."

Since Apple began building their supply chain in December, the stock has risen 39.9%.

I see a short term, event driven, options opportunity here. Buy the March 12, 545 / 550 bull call spread for a net cost of about $ 2.20. This spread does not have much time on it, but why should it. All of the action on Apple is happening in the next couple days; let the time decay work for you. All Apple's stock has to do, is make a $ 5.82 increase over the next 10 days and the trade is a winner. That's only 1% rise. Ya the stock is expensive, but why should little guys not get a piece of the event driven action?

TRADE:

Buy Long Call (AAPL) MAR12 @ 545

Sell Long Call MAR12 @550

Expiration - 10 days (Mar 17th)

Break-Even - $ 547.45

Max Gain - $255

Max Loss - $215

Return % on Risk - 104.08 %

3/5/2012

CL.

Disclosure: I am long AAPL.