Comments on Calvin Oh's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/calvin-oh/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/114514-gold-even-more-attractive-as-cash-yields-approach-0?source=feed#comment-354934 354934 Tue, 13 Jan 2009 17:41:35 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114514-gold-even-more-attractive-as-cash-yields-approach-0?source=feed#comment-354900 354900 Risk of theft, I mean. > ]]> Tue, 13 Jan 2009 17:09:34 -0500

On Jan 13 04:49 PM lbsterling wrote:

> Risk of theft, I mean.
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114514-gold-even-more-attractive-as-cash-yields-approach-0?source=feed#comment-354890 354890 Tue, 13 Jan 2009 17:03:22 -0500
Gold has no financial risk in the sense that there is no obligation attached to it. The argument that there is risk to confiscation or theft can be applied to anything and therefore I don't know how to answer you.

If you study history you will see that gold does well in extreme inflationary and deflationary times. This is because there is a high degree of uncertainty during these times and therefore the demand for gold increases. You need to understand that gold is the ultimate form of currency. It has been and it always will be. My world is based on studying history which, if studied, provides insights into what we may expect for the future.

Gold has periods where it outperforms. Again study history. It is not merely a counterweight to inflation. It is money.

My article was addressing the common argument that gold naysayers usually point to the fact that gold does not pay any interest as a reason not to own it.

There will come a time when gold will not be the most important investment in my portfolio. Right now, I believe the risks in the system merit an overweight position in physical gold and then some gold derivatives and stocks.


I am pointing out a fact that now Treasury instruments (which were formerly considered "as good as gold") and therefore all it's derivatives, such as cash and deposit yields pay next to nothing. So that argument is now moot. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114514-gold-even-more-attractive-as-cash-yields-approach-0?source=feed#comment-354876 354876 "Gold has no risk" > What about the risk of threat or cost of protecting it? > > In your world, gold goes up during inflation and up during deflation. > When does it go down, actually? > > And if it just acts as a counterweight to inflation, where's the > outperformance? > > I actually like gold as an investment but I don't think you made > any intelligible argument for it in your article.]]> Tue, 13 Jan 2009 16:49:09 -0500


On Jan 13 04:41 PM lbsterling wrote:

> "Gold has no risk"
> What about the risk of threat or cost of protecting it?
>
> In your world, gold goes up during inflation and up during deflation.
> When does it go down, actually?
>
> And if it just acts as a counterweight to inflation, where's the
> outperformance?
>
> I actually like gold as an investment but I don't think you made
> any intelligible argument for it in your article.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114514-gold-even-more-attractive-as-cash-yields-approach-0?source=feed#comment-354874 354874 Tue, 13 Jan 2009 16:41:24 -0500 What about the risk of threat or cost of protecting it?

In your world, gold goes up during inflation and up during deflation. When does it go down, actually?

And if it just acts as a counterweight to inflation, where's the outperformance?

I actually like gold as an investment but I don't think you made any intelligible argument for it in your article.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114514-gold-even-more-attractive-as-cash-yields-approach-0?source=feed#comment-354867 354867 Tue, 13 Jan 2009 16:33:27 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114514-gold-even-more-attractive-as-cash-yields-approach-0?source=feed#comment-354693 354693 Tue, 13 Jan 2009 13:56:41 -0500
I don't think you understand the concept of real yield. 2-3% yield on an instrument does not take into account inflation.

And I think we need to clear up the use of deflation and inflation if we are going to toss those words around. You are referring to deflation as price depreciation. What we had was a historic credit expansion and credit collapse. Assets were sold by over-leveraged institution to meet liquidity and margin requirements. This led to a wholesale panic out of most assets, which went into dollars for a few reasons (of many).

1. As I mentioned, it is the best of the worst (out of all the currencies)

2. It is one of only a few markets large enough to sustain such a large amount of surge buying. (Any other market would have gone into a moon-shot)

When I refer to inflation, I refer to it explicitly as a monetary phenomenon which always eventually translates into price inflation. If you take a look at the amount of money that has been created over the last few months, the only conclusion you can come to is that some of that money will eventually hit the streets (and some of a grossly humongous amount, equals a very large amount) and cause an upward spike in price inflation. The only reason you are not seeing it now is because the money is not being released from the balance sheets of the banks because they are refusing to lend. This is exactly what happened during the Great Depression. As it is the Feds mandate to get this credit freeze thawed and money flowing again, the massive money printing operations will eventually translate into hyper-inflation, which will result in the collapse of the dollar. At which point the dollar will either be replaced or propped up in some hybrid form. (several years from now?)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114514-gold-even-more-attractive-as-cash-yields-approach-0?source=feed#comment-354666 354666 Tue, 13 Jan 2009 13:31:29 -0500
Hey, it's not very relevant to make examples about "raging inflation", when reality is that there is deflation. If you get 2-3% on a bond it clearly means you have a positive real yield. If there is deflation, bonds are an excellent investment.
From the government:
"On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U decreased 1.7 percent in November after declining 1.0 percent in October. The index for all items less food and energy was virtually unchanged (0.0 percent) in November after decreasing 0.1 percent in October."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114514-gold-even-more-attractive-as-cash-yields-approach-0?source=feed#comment-354614 354614 Hefaistos, I'm curious what you believe the inflation rate to be. > I hope you're not quoting off government statistics. So let's say > that the long bond does yield enough to cover inflation (which I > don't believe it does And to believe that over 30 years a rate of > 2.99% will suffice? C'mon....) then you're still only getting a 0% > return instead of a negative return. This doesn't cover any of the > default risk. > > As far as my comment being one-sided. Guilty as charged. It is an > opinion piece. I'm sure there is another article floating around > here on SA with the exact opposite argument so we should be fine. > The universe will not tilt off it's axis because all commentary has > now been cosmically balanced. Guess what? You're comment is pretty > biased. You should balance out the negativity with a picture of a > bunny. > > Bio has been sent to editor. > ]]> Tue, 13 Jan 2009 12:47:41 -0500

On Jan 13 12:46 PM Gold-Speculator.com wrote:

> Hefaistos, I'm curious what you believe the inflation rate to be.
> I hope you're not quoting off government statistics. So let's say
> that the long bond does yield enough to cover inflation (which I
> don't believe it does And to believe that over 30 years a rate of
> 2.99% will suffice? C'mon....) then you're still only getting a 0%
> return instead of a negative return. This doesn't cover any of the
> default risk.
>
> As far as my comment being one-sided. Guilty as charged. It is an
> opinion piece. I'm sure there is another article floating around
> here on SA with the exact opposite argument so we should be fine.
> The universe will not tilt off it's axis because all commentary has
> now been cosmically balanced. Guess what? You're comment is pretty
> biased. You should balance out the negativity with a picture of a
> bunny.
>
> Bio has been sent to editor.
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114514-gold-even-more-attractive-as-cash-yields-approach-0?source=feed#comment-354609 354609 Tue, 13 Jan 2009 12:46:07 -0500
As far as my comment being one-sided. Guilty as charged. It is an opinion piece. I'm sure there is another article floating around here on SA with the exact opposite argument so we should be fine. The universe will not tilt off it's axis because all commentary has now been cosmically balanced. Guess what? You're comment is pretty biased. You should balance out the negativity with a picture of a bunny.

Bio has been sent to editor.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114514-gold-even-more-attractive-as-cash-yields-approach-0?source=feed#comment-354593 354593 "Guess what folks, Treasuries don't pay enough to cover the inflation > rate. And yet you still have all the risk of default, inflation risk > and lost opportunity cost. This argument has got absolutely no more > legs to stand on. The argument is worthless." > > For one thing, long bond yields definitely cover inflation. > > "Guess what folks" - I don't understand how this populistic and one-sided > article qualified for publication at SA? T]]> Tue, 13 Jan 2009 12:38:25 -0500
The flight to the dollar of late is just a flight to liquidity. It's merely a choice of the 'best of the worst'. All fiat currencies are floating abstractions. The wealth will eventually flow to where it is treated best. This is not going to be treasury instruments.

As far as my comments being one sided. Yes I'm guilty. I have an agenda to promote gold. And guess what, my one sided comment probably cancels out an opposing one sided editorial on the SA site. And guess what? Opinion pieces are usually one-sided. I might add that your comment is pretty one-sided. You should add an addendum to your comment to balance it out. Sounds a bit negative. That way we can all be one step closer to utopia.

Bio will be up shortly. I just sent to the editor.


On Jan 13 08:44 AM hefaistos wrote:

> "Guess what folks, Treasuries don't pay enough to cover the inflation
> rate. And yet you still have all the risk of default, inflation risk
> and lost opportunity cost. This argument has got absolutely no more
> legs to stand on. The argument is worthless."
>
> For one thing, long bond yields definitely cover inflation.
>
> "Guess what folks" - I don't understand how this populistic and one-sided
> article qualified for publication at SA? T]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114514-gold-even-more-attractive-as-cash-yields-approach-0?source=feed#comment-354335 354335 Tue, 13 Jan 2009 09:56:48 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114514-gold-even-more-attractive-as-cash-yields-approach-0?source=feed#comment-354334 354334 Tue, 13 Jan 2009 09:56:23 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114514-gold-even-more-attractive-as-cash-yields-approach-0?source=feed#comment-354231 354231 Tue, 13 Jan 2009 08:44:26 -0500
For one thing, long bond yields definitely cover inflation.

"Guess what folks" - I don't understand how this populistic and one-sided article qualified for publication at SA? T]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85932-benefiting-from-the-oil-correction?source=feed#comment-212300 212300 Wed, 23 Jul 2008 09:56:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85932-benefiting-from-the-oil-correction?source=feed#comment-212056 212056 Wed, 23 Jul 2008 01:32:49 -0400
finance.yahoo.com/q?s=wnr]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85932-benefiting-from-the-oil-correction?source=feed#comment-210591 210591 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 10:46:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85932-benefiting-from-the-oil-correction?source=feed#comment-210530 210530 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 09:55:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85932-benefiting-from-the-oil-correction?source=feed#comment-210447 210447 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 08:50:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85932-benefiting-from-the-oil-correction?source=feed#comment-210428 210428 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 08:33:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84231-the-always-precarious-dollar-and-its-impact-on-gold?source=feed#comment-201877 201877 Wed, 09 Jul 2008 19:31:14 -0400
Commodities triple in US $ terms by then. The bear takes over the US stock and bond markets.


Study England history fo the 1930 to 1980 period for the model.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84231-the-always-precarious-dollar-and-its-impact-on-gold?source=feed#comment-201811 201811 Wed, 09 Jul 2008 17:58:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84231-the-always-precarious-dollar-and-its-impact-on-gold?source=feed#comment-201789 201789 Wed, 09 Jul 2008 17:23:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84231-the-always-precarious-dollar-and-its-impact-on-gold?source=feed#comment-201586 201586 Wed, 09 Jul 2008 13:31:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84231-the-always-precarious-dollar-and-its-impact-on-gold?source=feed#comment-201497 201497 Wed, 09 Jul 2008 12:05:11 -0400 Our gain in trade balance will only result in the dollar holders around the world exchanging them for other currencies as fast as we can accumulate them. At least we can use them to rescue Banks and Housing-(simultaneously since they're joined at the "Mortgage"), and won't have to print more, but we will anyway I'm sure, there's always an excuse once "you're addicted" it's just sooo easy.
Pity Asia and the Mid-East still won't buy from us--well maybe food--, can't let the price of that slip. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84231-the-always-precarious-dollar-and-its-impact-on-gold?source=feed#comment-201166 201166 Wed, 09 Jul 2008 06:44:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82982-investing-like-buffett-why-novagold-is-a-buy?source=feed#comment-198430 198430 Fri, 04 Jul 2008 07:48:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82982-investing-like-buffett-why-novagold-is-a-buy?source=feed#comment-195815 195815 Mon, 30 Jun 2008 09:47:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82982-investing-like-buffett-why-novagold-is-a-buy?source=feed#comment-195373 195373 Sun, 29 Jun 2008 15:48:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82982-investing-like-buffett-why-novagold-is-a-buy?source=feed#comment-195011 195011 Sun, 29 Jun 2008 02:52:29 -0400