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Cam Hui, CFA  

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  • Are Stocks Tumbling Too Far Too Fast? [View article]
    Also see Bill Luby's excellent post on the short-term profitability of fading VIX spikes:
    Jan 26, 2014. 12:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Are The Bearish Triggers? [View article]
    Just follow the link for New Deal Democrat in the article.
    Jan 22, 2014. 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Time For Caution [View article]
    It sounds like a sensible approach, but I haven't seen the backtest results to comment whether that represents a good rule or not.

    I would focus more on forward 12 month earnings estimates, because if you focus on any single forward FY, EPS estimates have a tendency to drop while forward 12 month normalizes expectations.
    Oct 25, 2013. 12:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Gold Standard Is A Bad Idea (Government Interfering In Free Market Edition) [View article]
    Any fixed exchange rate regime, yes that includes CNY, presents the same problem. We have seen the same thing happen in Europe with the euro - national governments can't print so the adjustment process is very painful.
    Oct 7, 2013. 09:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Lehman Lesson: Model Diversification And Flexibility [View article]
    Rosenberg made the stagflation comment recently on August 1, 2013.
    Sep 17, 2013. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Pays For China's Excesses? [View article]
    I never said that the government's preemptive actions would fail. I just pointed out that it will be challenging to navigate the road ahead without an accident, given the constraints that they operate under.
    Aug 12, 2013. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What A Regime Shift Looks Like [View article]
    Sorry folks. It seems that SA cut off some of my post. Here is a link to the full article:
    Jul 18, 2013. 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's Important If The Secular Bull Market In Vancouver Real Estate Is Over [View article]
    For Mainlanders who have sufficient funds, there are ways of getting money out of the country. For example, if you have a business, just incorporate an offshore entity that your Mainland business sells and keep the profits offshore. Apple does it, why can't the Chinese?
    Mar 19, 2013. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Signs Of Global Healing [View article]
    I don't have any strong opinions one way or another on industrial metal demand from China.
    Mar 15, 2013. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This 2011 All Over Again? [View article]
    No. While insider selling was elevated in December, the amount of sales increased in January and into February.

    Mar 4, 2013. 07:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why My Inner Investor Is Worried [View article]
    Look at SPY vs. ACWI. Global equities are outperforming US equities.
    Jan 24, 2013. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bulls 2, Bears 0 [View article]
    See my latest update. Some intriguingly bullish head & shoulders patterns are developing.
    Dec 13, 2012. 09:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can China Hold Things Together? [View article]
    The stock market in China is relatively undeveloped compared to Western economies and regarded as speculative (think Pink Sheet or junior NASDAQ listings and you get the idea).

    China's miracle growth was powered by 1) low labor costs; and 2) CNY-USD peg, which gave rise to an inappropriate monetary policy for China. This meant that when their inflation rose, they couldn't raise interest rates because of the currency peg. Thus real interest rates went negative.

    Since their bond market was also relatively underdeveloped, stock market highly speculative and banking interest rates had negative real rates, the household sector had nowhere to put their savings - except real estate. This has created an enormous property bubble, which is an unintended consequence of the currency peg.

    Now that the Chinese authorities have painted themselve into a corner, how they manage the situation will be of great importance not only to China but the rest of the world.
    Jul 1, 2012. 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Shoots In China? [View article]
    I just call the charts as I see them. This is a tactical call and not necessarily a strategic call.

    The jury is still out on the longer term trajectory.
    Apr 30, 2012. 10:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Buying The Pain In Spain [View article]
    See my follow-up, which Seeking Alpha doesn't seemed to have picked up yet:
    Apr 23, 2012. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment