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Cam Hui, CFA

 
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  • An Unconvincing Rally [View article]
    Soon after I put up this post, we have the news of coordinated central bank intervention. Stocks have staged a rip-roaring rally. It is curious, however, that 10-year yields in Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy are all rising despite the news, indicating that the bond market believes that risk premiums are rising, not falling.
    Nov 30 09:19 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tripwires To A Market Crash [View article]
    I agree. The bond market is already screaming HEART ATTACK, but I was writing for the benefit of stock investors and the equity market hasn't really responded to the signs of distress.
    Nov 28 09:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Secular Bear Markets [View article]
    I am a long-term bull on commodities (and precious metals).

    You also have to understand that precious metals and miners are part of the risk-on trade. Should a banking crisis hit the eurozone, these asset classes have not performed well. Consider, for example, how gold behaved after the Japanese earthquake. Gold and PMs went down, USD and Treasuries rallied.

    I have no trouble with being long commodities longer term if you can live with drawdowns of 20-50% but I am of the opinion that you need to try to time your entry and exit points.
    Nov 16 12:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Secular Bear Markets [View article]
    Price to Sales, or market cap to GDP, are not perfect metrics, but they are better than either trailing or forward P/E that many analysts use for long term equity market valuation.
    Nov 16 09:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The Merkel Capitulation? [View article]
    On second thought, I take it all back. It wasn't a Merkel capitulation moment.

    For more details see http://bit.ly/rNF7aM
    Nov 11 12:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Financial Repression The Next Step For The Eurozone? [View article]
    Precisely the point, but then the current crisis will have been averted. The crisis, when it hits, will be worse in 5-15 years.

    It doesn't matter, the markets will rally because the Apocalypse is delayed.

    As investors, you have to learn to be agnostic about whether a policy is right or wrong, but think more about how the markets will behave. As a human being, you can have an opinion about a policy, but don't let it affect your portfolio.
    Nov 9 09:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Financial Repression The Next Step For The Eurozone? [View article]
    It creates a lower cost of funding for the government.

    Image that the State of California requires that CALPERS buys California debentures which pay a lower than market rate of interest because it is "prudent" to do so. Doesn't that kick the fiscal problem down the road a few years?
    Nov 8 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Too Eager To Get Bearish [View article]
    Yes
    Nov 3 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rally Not Confirmed By Volume [View article]
    Yes you are correct. I will post a correction shortly.
    Oct 13 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Has No Way Out [View article]
    I did some back of the envelope calculations. If you had to replace all of the Tier 1 capital of the European banks ex-UK, Nordics, it would come to roughly EUR 700b, including the Nordics it comes to EUR 800b. See http://bit.ly/pA6LCr

    Not all banks will need recapitalization and not all banks will need all of their Tier 1 capital replaced so the full number of a Swedish-style rescue will be less - probably in the EUR 400-600b range. That's very do-able.
    Sep 30 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Has No Way Out [View article]
    Greece certainly could do an "Argentina". See my reply above about Greek default scenario analysis.
    Sep 27 06:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Has No Way Out [View article]
    See the scenario review from Bronte Capital of Greek defaults: http://bit.ly/nx3Vy6

    If Greece devalued and left the eurozone, it could potentially take down the banking system in the periphery countries within the eurozone.

    There are no good ways out.
    Sep 27 06:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Markets Are Signaling An Economic Downturn [View article]
    The Timer Model is currently at a deflation signal. You can see the model readings on a weekly basis as I am now a contributor to the Bespoke blogger poll: http://bit.ly/ox9Vyo/

    Where

    Inflation = bullish
    Neutral = neutral
    Deflation = bearish
    Sep 25 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Decision Wednesday A Sideshow To Europe [View article]
    I know that this is off-topic but were you able to see the GRS? I have a Mewlon 210 but here in Vancouver the weather is terrible and it's been hard to get out and observe.
    Sep 22 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Decision Wednesday A Sideshow To Europe [View article]
    I did not focus on the Obama proposals because they are likely to be a non-starter. The GOP leadership has indicated that they won't increase taxes, so we are going to have gridlock and therefore no help from fiscal policy.
    Sep 19 09:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
114 Comments
131 Likes