Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Cam Hui, CFA  

View Cam Hui, CFA's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • All Of Europe's A Stage [View article]
    Please understand that I have no particular axe to grind as there is no incentive for me to be either bullish or bearish.

    I was (incorrectly) bearish late last year, but to paraphrase John Maynard Keynes: When the circumstances change, so does my view.
    Mar 12, 2012. 08:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • All Of Europe's A Stage [View article]
    The Grand Plan has two components:

    1) "Good" austerity in the form of tax cuts and government cutbacks
    2) Structural reform, defined as union busting and the elimination of the Europe social model

    Part 2 creates sufficient labor flexibility to address the structural imbalances between northern and southern Europe.
    Mar 11, 2012. 11:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Are All QEers Now [View article]
    For Draghi, LTRO/QE is part of the Grand Plan:
    Feb 27, 2012. 10:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preliminary Verdict: Consolidation And Correction [View article]
    Correction or consolidation.
    Feb 23, 2012. 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breakout Or Consolidation? [View article]
    See the latest update, which does not seem to have been picked up by Seeking Alpha
    Feb 22, 2012. 10:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Breakout Or Consolidation? [View article]
    It's not the beat rate that's significant, but the recent direction of change that's intereresting. What's more significant is the progress in forward guidance, which has been negative but getting negative - which indicates improvement.
    Feb 20, 2012. 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breakout Or Consolidation? [View article]
    The DJ Transports and Industrials negative divergence is another concern for the market. However, I prefer to look at foreign markets and non-equity markets, e.g. commodities, in my inter-market analysis as they tend to give us a broader picture of what's going on in the world. Remember that we are still in a binary risk on/risk off environment and those indicators are better measures of risk appetite.
    Feb 19, 2012. 01:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3 Is Still On The Table [View article]
    See LTRO FAQ here:

    As I understand it, there is no difference between what is acceptable as collateral under LTRO1 and LTRO2.

    Not sure if they could put up US Treasuries as it is not denominated in euros. Even if they did they would be unlikely to do so as they would be subject to margin calls should the currency move against them (remember that this could be a highly levered trade).
    Feb 6, 2012. 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Dips And Sell The Rallies [View article]
    Use this link for the chart:
    Jan 5, 2012. 06:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull Case For Stocks [View article]
    My base case is a recessionary style bear, not an end-of-the-world Lehman/Creditanstalt type bear market. This would take the S&P 500 down to the 900-1000 level in 2012, which would create a superb buying opportunity.
    Dec 19, 2011. 07:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Unconvincing Rally [View article]
    Soon after I put up this post, we have the news of coordinated central bank intervention. Stocks have staged a rip-roaring rally. It is curious, however, that 10-year yields in Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy are all rising despite the news, indicating that the bond market believes that risk premiums are rising, not falling.
    Nov 30, 2011. 09:19 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tripwires To A Market Crash [View article]
    I agree. The bond market is already screaming HEART ATTACK, but I was writing for the benefit of stock investors and the equity market hasn't really responded to the signs of distress.
    Nov 28, 2011. 09:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Secular Bear Markets [View article]
    I am a long-term bull on commodities (and precious metals).

    You also have to understand that precious metals and miners are part of the risk-on trade. Should a banking crisis hit the eurozone, these asset classes have not performed well. Consider, for example, how gold behaved after the Japanese earthquake. Gold and PMs went down, USD and Treasuries rallied.

    I have no trouble with being long commodities longer term if you can live with drawdowns of 20-50% but I am of the opinion that you need to try to time your entry and exit points.
    Nov 16, 2011. 12:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Secular Bear Markets [View article]
    Price to Sales, or market cap to GDP, are not perfect metrics, but they are better than either trailing or forward P/E that many analysts use for long term equity market valuation.
    Nov 16, 2011. 09:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The Merkel Capitulation? [View article]
    On second thought, I take it all back. It wasn't a Merkel capitulation moment.

    For more details see
    Nov 11, 2011. 12:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment