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Cam Hui, CFA  

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  • QE3 Is Still On The Table [View article]
    See LTRO FAQ here: http://on.ft.com/AF3Kis

    As I understand it, there is no difference between what is acceptable as collateral under LTRO1 and LTRO2.

    Not sure if they could put up US Treasuries as it is not denominated in euros. Even if they did they would be unlikely to do so as they would be subject to margin calls should the currency move against them (remember that this could be a highly levered trade).
    Feb 6, 2012. 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Dips And Sell The Rallies [View article]
    Use this link for the chart: http://bit.ly/zWSRJf
    Jan 5, 2012. 06:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull Case For Stocks [View article]
    My base case is a recessionary style bear, not an end-of-the-world Lehman/Creditanstalt type bear market. This would take the S&P 500 down to the 900-1000 level in 2012, which would create a superb buying opportunity.
    Dec 19, 2011. 07:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Unconvincing Rally [View article]
    Soon after I put up this post, we have the news of coordinated central bank intervention. Stocks have staged a rip-roaring rally. It is curious, however, that 10-year yields in Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy are all rising despite the news, indicating that the bond market believes that risk premiums are rising, not falling.
    Nov 30, 2011. 09:19 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tripwires To A Market Crash [View article]
    I agree. The bond market is already screaming HEART ATTACK, but I was writing for the benefit of stock investors and the equity market hasn't really responded to the signs of distress.
    Nov 28, 2011. 09:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Secular Bear Markets [View article]
    I am a long-term bull on commodities (and precious metals).

    You also have to understand that precious metals and miners are part of the risk-on trade. Should a banking crisis hit the eurozone, these asset classes have not performed well. Consider, for example, how gold behaved after the Japanese earthquake. Gold and PMs went down, USD and Treasuries rallied.

    I have no trouble with being long commodities longer term if you can live with drawdowns of 20-50% but I am of the opinion that you need to try to time your entry and exit points.
    Nov 16, 2011. 12:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Secular Bear Markets [View article]
    Price to Sales, or market cap to GDP, are not perfect metrics, but they are better than either trailing or forward P/E that many analysts use for long term equity market valuation.
    Nov 16, 2011. 09:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The Merkel Capitulation? [View article]
    On second thought, I take it all back. It wasn't a Merkel capitulation moment.

    For more details see http://bit.ly/rNF7aM
    Nov 11, 2011. 12:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Financial Repression The Next Step For The Eurozone? [View article]
    Precisely the point, but then the current crisis will have been averted. The crisis, when it hits, will be worse in 5-15 years.

    It doesn't matter, the markets will rally because the Apocalypse is delayed.

    As investors, you have to learn to be agnostic about whether a policy is right or wrong, but think more about how the markets will behave. As a human being, you can have an opinion about a policy, but don't let it affect your portfolio.
    Nov 9, 2011. 09:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Financial Repression The Next Step For The Eurozone? [View article]
    It creates a lower cost of funding for the government.

    Image that the State of California requires that CALPERS buys California debentures which pay a lower than market rate of interest because it is "prudent" to do so. Doesn't that kick the fiscal problem down the road a few years?
    Nov 8, 2011. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Too Eager To Get Bearish [View article]
    Yes
    Nov 3, 2011. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rally Not Confirmed By Volume [View article]
    Yes you are correct. I will post a correction shortly.
    Oct 13, 2011. 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Has No Way Out [View article]
    I did some back of the envelope calculations. If you had to replace all of the Tier 1 capital of the European banks ex-UK, Nordics, it would come to roughly EUR 700b, including the Nordics it comes to EUR 800b. See http://bit.ly/pA6LCr

    Not all banks will need recapitalization and not all banks will need all of their Tier 1 capital replaced so the full number of a Swedish-style rescue will be less - probably in the EUR 400-600b range. That's very do-able.
    Sep 30, 2011. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Has No Way Out [View article]
    Greece certainly could do an "Argentina". See my reply above about Greek default scenario analysis.
    Sep 27, 2011. 06:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Has No Way Out [View article]
    See the scenario review from Bronte Capital of Greek defaults: http://bit.ly/nx3Vy6

    If Greece devalued and left the eurozone, it could potentially take down the banking system in the periphery countries within the eurozone.

    There are no good ways out.
    Sep 27, 2011. 06:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
117 Comments
140 Likes