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Cam Hui, CFA

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  • Safe Havens In A Storm [View article]
    You're right. I was thinking in terms of how you make money without going short.
    Sep 5, 2011. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Demographic Trends Imply Bearish Markets Until End Of Decade [View article]
    It's difficult to comment without knowing your situation, i.e. risk preferences, time horizon, etc. Let me give you some general thoughts that may or may not be applicable to your circumstances:

    Jeremy Grantham of GMO has advocated US high quality stocks as one of the places to be for the next seven years. While I favor being more tactical in asset allocation, high quality US blue chip stocks is probably not a bad place to be if you can stand the heat of the occasional bear market that could take your portfolio down 40-50% (if you have the right time horizon).
    Aug 31, 2011. 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Demographic Trends Imply Bearish Markets Until End Of Decade [View article]
    Note that this article is about relating equity returns to demographics. It is silent on employment, economic growth or standard of living.

    Don't confuse topics.
    Aug 25, 2011. 10:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Banking System Back To 2008? [View article]
    I've done no detailed analysis on BAC and have no position on the stock.
    Aug 24, 2011. 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Cheap Are Stocks? [View article]
    That may be one of the reasons that Grantham at GMO favors US high quality stocks. Nevertheless, should the market fall because of a recession or financial panic, these stocks will go down, though they may be partially insulated from the decline because of their dividend yields.
    Aug 18, 2011. 09:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Different Kind of NFP Preview [View article]
    I agree. See humblestudentofthemark...
    Aug 4, 2011. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting the U.S. Budget Dilemma in Context [View article]
    When I moved from Canada to the US, the top combined (federal & provincial) marginal income tax rate in Canada was about 55%. When I returned in 2007, it was 40-45%, depending on the jurisdiction.

    Income tax rates in Canada aren't that different from the US. You just get to the top rate a lot faster (roughly 80-90K per annum for individuals, with no joint filing). Canada has a VAT (Value-added-tax) of 5% on all goods and services which the US doesn't have and raises a lot of revenue for the government.

    In 2000, both countries were in surplus. Then their fiscal paths diverged. The US went into deficit and Canada remained in surplus (for a few years).

    If you want government services, you have to pay for them.
    Aug 1, 2011. 07:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nervously Bullish [View article]
    Yes you are correct, it is an all-or-none signal with three states: Asset inflation (high beta), neutral (medium or neutral beta) and deflation (defensive).

    Tisk control consists of a trailing stop loss. For example, if we were to move into the asset inflation, or high beta, trade. If we were to get stopped out, the Timer Model would move into neutral.

    I don't make tactical adjustments based on my own assessment of the fundamentals. That's the nature of the discipline of a model. However, I do watch other indicators that "should" be correlated with my model to see if they are confirming the model signal. If the secondary indicators aren't confirming the signal then it's time to look at the model and to fix it in a systematic way, rather than to override it on an ad hoc basis.

    I hope that's clear.
    Jul 26, 2011. 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nervously Bullish [View article]
    Nervously bullish = Trading bullishly but nervous about the downside, so I keep tight stops.
    Jul 25, 2011. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Bernanke Smarter Than We Thought? [View article]
    According to my inner investor, QE2 is a disaster and the wrong decision from a policy viewpoint.

    According to my inner trader, the end of ZIRP will be a disaster for the markets (but necessary, according to my inner investor, for the system to adjust).
    May 1, 2011. 02:20 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • End of QE2 Setting the Climate for Substantial Downside in Asset Prices [View article]
    I never made an interest rate forecast in the article. To the contrary, I agree with David Rosenberg - contractions are inherently deflationary and therefore bond bullish.
    Apr 28, 2011. 04:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Time to Be a Market Hero [View article]
    We are precluded by securities regulators from posting performance for funds with a history of one year or less. Sorry.
    Apr 25, 2011. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Ready to Sell in May? Sounds Like a Good Idea [View article]
    For now, there are no real alternatives to Treasuries. At some point between QE3 and QE33, alternatives will appear.
    Apr 5, 2011. 12:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Ready to Sell in May? Sounds Like a Good Idea [View article]
    The Timer Model went back into the market in November.
    Apr 5, 2011. 12:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Ready to Sell in May? Sounds Like a Good Idea [View article]
    If you are asking about the Inflation Deflation Timer Model, then it does not. The Timer Model only consider commodity prices as they are considered to be the "canaries in the coal mine" of global growth and asset inflationary expectations.

    If you are asking about my other forms of analysis, then the answer is yes.
    Apr 5, 2011. 12:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment