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Cam Hui, CFA  

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  • Rally Not Confirmed By Volume [View article]
    Yes you are correct. I will post a correction shortly.
    Oct 13, 2011. 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Has No Way Out [View article]
    I did some back of the envelope calculations. If you had to replace all of the Tier 1 capital of the European banks ex-UK, Nordics, it would come to roughly EUR 700b, including the Nordics it comes to EUR 800b. See

    Not all banks will need recapitalization and not all banks will need all of their Tier 1 capital replaced so the full number of a Swedish-style rescue will be less - probably in the EUR 400-600b range. That's very do-able.
    Sep 30, 2011. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Has No Way Out [View article]
    Greece certainly could do an "Argentina". See my reply above about Greek default scenario analysis.
    Sep 27, 2011. 06:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Has No Way Out [View article]
    See the scenario review from Bronte Capital of Greek defaults:

    If Greece devalued and left the eurozone, it could potentially take down the banking system in the periphery countries within the eurozone.

    There are no good ways out.
    Sep 27, 2011. 06:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Markets Are Signaling An Economic Downturn [View article]
    The Timer Model is currently at a deflation signal. You can see the model readings on a weekly basis as I am now a contributor to the Bespoke blogger poll:


    Inflation = bullish
    Neutral = neutral
    Deflation = bearish
    Sep 25, 2011. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Decision Wednesday A Sideshow To Europe [View article]
    I know that this is off-topic but were you able to see the GRS? I have a Mewlon 210 but here in Vancouver the weather is terrible and it's been hard to get out and observe.
    Sep 22, 2011. 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Decision Wednesday A Sideshow To Europe [View article]
    I did not focus on the Obama proposals because they are likely to be a non-starter. The GOP leadership has indicated that they won't increase taxes, so we are going to have gridlock and therefore no help from fiscal policy.
    Sep 19, 2011. 09:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Safe Havens In A Storm [View article]
    You're right. I was thinking in terms of how you make money without going short.
    Sep 5, 2011. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Demographic Trends Imply Bearish Markets Until End Of Decade [View article]
    It's difficult to comment without knowing your situation, i.e. risk preferences, time horizon, etc. Let me give you some general thoughts that may or may not be applicable to your circumstances:

    Jeremy Grantham of GMO has advocated US high quality stocks as one of the places to be for the next seven years. While I favor being more tactical in asset allocation, high quality US blue chip stocks is probably not a bad place to be if you can stand the heat of the occasional bear market that could take your portfolio down 40-50% (if you have the right time horizon).
    Aug 31, 2011. 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Demographic Trends Imply Bearish Markets Until End Of Decade [View article]
    Note that this article is about relating equity returns to demographics. It is silent on employment, economic growth or standard of living.

    Don't confuse topics.
    Aug 25, 2011. 10:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Banking System Back To 2008? [View article]
    I've done no detailed analysis on BAC and have no position on the stock.
    Aug 24, 2011. 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Cheap Are Stocks? [View article]
    That may be one of the reasons that Grantham at GMO favors US high quality stocks. Nevertheless, should the market fall because of a recession or financial panic, these stocks will go down, though they may be partially insulated from the decline because of their dividend yields.
    Aug 18, 2011. 09:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Different Kind of NFP Preview [View article]
    I agree. See humblestudentofthemark...
    Aug 4, 2011. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting the U.S. Budget Dilemma in Context [View article]
    When I moved from Canada to the US, the top combined (federal & provincial) marginal income tax rate in Canada was about 55%. When I returned in 2007, it was 40-45%, depending on the jurisdiction.

    Income tax rates in Canada aren't that different from the US. You just get to the top rate a lot faster (roughly 80-90K per annum for individuals, with no joint filing). Canada has a VAT (Value-added-tax) of 5% on all goods and services which the US doesn't have and raises a lot of revenue for the government.

    In 2000, both countries were in surplus. Then their fiscal paths diverged. The US went into deficit and Canada remained in surplus (for a few years).

    If you want government services, you have to pay for them.
    Aug 1, 2011. 07:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nervously Bullish [View article]
    Yes you are correct, it is an all-or-none signal with three states: Asset inflation (high beta), neutral (medium or neutral beta) and deflation (defensive).

    Tisk control consists of a trailing stop loss. For example, if we were to move into the asset inflation, or high beta, trade. If we were to get stopped out, the Timer Model would move into neutral.

    I don't make tactical adjustments based on my own assessment of the fundamentals. That's the nature of the discipline of a model. However, I do watch other indicators that "should" be correlated with my model to see if they are confirming the model signal. If the secondary indicators aren't confirming the signal then it's time to look at the model and to fix it in a systematic way, rather than to override it on an ad hoc basis.

    I hope that's clear.
    Jul 26, 2011. 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment