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Cam Hui, CFA  

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  • A Different Kind of NFP Preview [View article]
    I agree. See humblestudentofthemark...
    Aug 4, 2011. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting the U.S. Budget Dilemma in Context [View article]
    When I moved from Canada to the US, the top combined (federal & provincial) marginal income tax rate in Canada was about 55%. When I returned in 2007, it was 40-45%, depending on the jurisdiction.

    Income tax rates in Canada aren't that different from the US. You just get to the top rate a lot faster (roughly 80-90K per annum for individuals, with no joint filing). Canada has a VAT (Value-added-tax) of 5% on all goods and services which the US doesn't have and raises a lot of revenue for the government.

    In 2000, both countries were in surplus. Then their fiscal paths diverged. The US went into deficit and Canada remained in surplus (for a few years).

    If you want government services, you have to pay for them.
    Aug 1, 2011. 07:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nervously Bullish [View article]
    Yes you are correct, it is an all-or-none signal with three states: Asset inflation (high beta), neutral (medium or neutral beta) and deflation (defensive).

    Tisk control consists of a trailing stop loss. For example, if we were to move into the asset inflation, or high beta, trade. If we were to get stopped out, the Timer Model would move into neutral.

    I don't make tactical adjustments based on my own assessment of the fundamentals. That's the nature of the discipline of a model. However, I do watch other indicators that "should" be correlated with my model to see if they are confirming the model signal. If the secondary indicators aren't confirming the signal then it's time to look at the model and to fix it in a systematic way, rather than to override it on an ad hoc basis.

    I hope that's clear.
    Jul 26, 2011. 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nervously Bullish [View article]
    Nervously bullish = Trading bullishly but nervous about the downside, so I keep tight stops.
    Jul 25, 2011. 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Bernanke Smarter Than We Thought? [View article]
    According to my inner investor, QE2 is a disaster and the wrong decision from a policy viewpoint.

    According to my inner trader, the end of ZIRP will be a disaster for the markets (but necessary, according to my inner investor, for the system to adjust).
    May 1, 2011. 02:20 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • End of QE2 Setting the Climate for Substantial Downside in Asset Prices [View article]
    I never made an interest rate forecast in the article. To the contrary, I agree with David Rosenberg - contractions are inherently deflationary and therefore bond bullish.
    Apr 28, 2011. 04:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Time to Be a Market Hero [View article]
    We are precluded by securities regulators from posting performance for funds with a history of one year or less. Sorry.
    Apr 25, 2011. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Ready to Sell in May? Sounds Like a Good Idea [View article]
    For now, there are no real alternatives to Treasuries. At some point between QE3 and QE33, alternatives will appear.
    Apr 5, 2011. 12:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Ready to Sell in May? Sounds Like a Good Idea [View article]
    The Timer Model went back into the market in November.
    Apr 5, 2011. 12:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Ready to Sell in May? Sounds Like a Good Idea [View article]
    If you are asking about the Inflation Deflation Timer Model, then it does not. The Timer Model only consider commodity prices as they are considered to be the "canaries in the coal mine" of global growth and asset inflationary expectations.

    If you are asking about my other forms of analysis, then the answer is yes.
    Apr 5, 2011. 12:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Someone Called the Cops to the Fed's Party [View article]
    In reply to your question, I use the charts mostly as a graphical illustration to make my point and they are not a formal part of my set of indicators. Having said that, I tend to prefer log charts as they tend to reflect percentage moves better than linear charts.

    Incidentally, I don't have a Ph.D. so you shouldn't really address me as "Dr. Hui".
    Mar 16, 2011. 12:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking Bearishly, While Trading Bullishly [View article]
    Chuck Prince was an "investor" and took forever to move the business lines of a financial behemoth around. I am a trader and move out on a moment's notice.

    If I were a slow moving investor (and I have managed funds like that) I would be fairly defensive right now.
    Mar 1, 2011. 08:33 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking Bearishly, While Trading Bullishly [View article]
    We are recovering from a balance sheet recession. In a balance sheet recession recovery, the system comes out of it highly stressed and any further shocks could create another financial crisis and send it all back down again. That's why we could have a repeat of 2008.
    Mar 1, 2011. 08:31 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Good News for Bulls as Investors Get a Little Nervous [View article]
    I didn't write the headline, SA did. My original headline was "Stay long the risk trade": humblestudentofthemark...
    Jan 24, 2011. 10:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Emerging Markets-Commodity Disconnect [View article]
    Flash9 - They could indeed be distribution tops. But for now, I would give the trading range thesis the benefit of the doubt, but maintain tight stops should the charts break relative support.
    Jan 17, 2011. 09:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment