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Cam Hui, CFA

 
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  • Should You Sell In May? [View article]
    That's why I have an inner investor and an inner trader. Each has different needs and time horizons.

    That's also why articles like these should not be considered to be investment advice, because everyone has their own objectives and circumstances.
    Apr 28 05:27 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Unconvincing Rally [View article]
    Soon after I put up this post, we have the news of coordinated central bank intervention. Stocks have staged a rip-roaring rally. It is curious, however, that 10-year yields in Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy are all rising despite the news, indicating that the bond market believes that risk premiums are rising, not falling.
    Nov 30 09:19 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Bernanke Smarter Than We Thought? [View article]
    According to my inner investor, QE2 is a disaster and the wrong decision from a policy viewpoint.

    According to my inner trader, the end of ZIRP will be a disaster for the markets (but necessary, according to my inner investor, for the system to adjust).
    May 1 02:20 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking Bearishly, While Trading Bullishly [View article]
    Chuck Prince was an "investor" and took forever to move the business lines of a financial behemoth around. I am a trader and move out on a moment's notice.

    If I were a slow moving investor (and I have managed funds like that) I would be fairly defensive right now.
    Mar 1 08:33 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking Bearishly, While Trading Bullishly [View article]
    We are recovering from a balance sheet recession. In a balance sheet recession recovery, the system comes out of it highly stressed and any further shocks could create another financial crisis and send it all back down again. That's why we could have a repeat of 2008.
    Mar 1 08:31 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breakout or Fake-Out? [View article]
    dcb - by "three days ago" I believe you refer to my post here: humblestudentofthemark...

    The difference is in time horizon. The previous post referred to a longer term time horizon of 6-12 months. I said that downside was limited, meaning that we are unlikely to go down much more from the levels then.

    This post is a tactical call of no more than a week or two, calling for a rally to the 900-920 level on the S&P 500.

    I continue to believe that this range-bound consolidation pattern is part of a basing and bottoming process. This is not THE BOTTOM, just a bear market rally.
    Feb 7 11:11 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Shoots In China? [View article]
    I just call the charts as I see them. This is a tactical call and not necessarily a strategic call.

    The jury is still out on the longer term trajectory.
    Apr 30 10:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Cheap Are Stocks? [View article]
    That may be one of the reasons that Grantham at GMO favors US high quality stocks. Nevertheless, should the market fall because of a recession or financial panic, these stocks will go down, though they may be partially insulated from the decline because of their dividend yields.
    Aug 18 09:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Someone Called the Cops to the Fed's Party [View article]
    In reply to your question, I use the charts mostly as a graphical illustration to make my point and they are not a formal part of my set of indicators. Having said that, I tend to prefer log charts as they tend to reflect percentage moves better than linear charts.

    Incidentally, I don't have a Ph.D. so you shouldn't really address me as "Dr. Hui".
    Mar 16 12:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apocalypse Later [View article]
    See my recent articles:

    "Correction interrupted"
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    "How stocks are both cheap AND expensive"
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 16 11:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Evidence Of A Low-Return Equity Outlook [View article]
    I have analyzed Market cap to GDP as a proxy of Price to Sales and found valuations elevated. The disadvantage to that approach is that net margins are very high (P/E = P/(Sales X Net margin). So the question then revolves around whether net margins are likely to stay at these levels.

    Further analysis of margins show that while net margins are stratospheric, EBIT margins are only elevated and not at nosebleed levels. Net margins are high because 1) Tax rates are low because multi-nationals have moved their profits offshore (think Apple) and 2) Interest rate expenses are low.

    So that's why the analysis of P/B, P/E and dividend yield is useful for putting the current equity valuation levels into context.
    May 1 09:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All Of Europe's A Stage [View article]
    The Grand Plan has two components:

    1) "Good" austerity in the form of tax cuts and government cutbacks
    2) Structural reform, defined as union busting and the elimination of the Europe social model

    Part 2 creates sufficient labor flexibility to address the structural imbalances between northern and southern Europe.
    Mar 11 11:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Are All QEers Now [View article]
    For Draghi, LTRO/QE is part of the Grand Plan: http://bit.ly/ztR38z
    Feb 27 10:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Secular Bear Markets [View article]
    I am a long-term bull on commodities (and precious metals).

    You also have to understand that precious metals and miners are part of the risk-on trade. Should a banking crisis hit the eurozone, these asset classes have not performed well. Consider, for example, how gold behaved after the Japanese earthquake. Gold and PMs went down, USD and Treasuries rallied.

    I have no trouble with being long commodities longer term if you can live with drawdowns of 20-50% but I am of the opinion that you need to try to time your entry and exit points.
    Nov 16 12:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Emerging Markets-Commodity Disconnect [View article]
    Flash9 - They could indeed be distribution tops. But for now, I would give the trading range thesis the benefit of the doubt, but maintain tight stops should the charts break relative support.
    Jan 17 09:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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