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Cam Hui

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  • Why My Inner Investor Is Worried [View article]
    Look at SPY vs. ACWI. Global equities are outperforming US equities.
    Jan 24 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bulls 2, Bears 0 [View article]
    See my latest update. Some intriguingly bullish head & shoulders patterns are developing.

    http://bit.ly/QWQVFS
    Dec 13 09:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can China Hold Things Together? [View article]
    The stock market in China is relatively undeveloped compared to Western economies and regarded as speculative (think Pink Sheet or junior NASDAQ listings and you get the idea).

    China's miracle growth was powered by 1) low labor costs; and 2) CNY-USD peg, which gave rise to an inappropriate monetary policy for China. This meant that when their inflation rose, they couldn't raise interest rates because of the currency peg. Thus real interest rates went negative.

    Since their bond market was also relatively underdeveloped, stock market highly speculative and banking interest rates had negative real rates, the household sector had nowhere to put their savings - except real estate. This has created an enormous property bubble, which is an unintended consequence of the currency peg.

    Now that the Chinese authorities have painted themselve into a corner, how they manage the situation will be of great importance not only to China but the rest of the world.
    Jul 1 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Shoots In China? [View article]
    I just call the charts as I see them. This is a tactical call and not necessarily a strategic call.

    The jury is still out on the longer term trajectory.
    Apr 30 10:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Buying The Pain In Spain [View article]
    See my follow-up, which Seeking Alpha doesn't seemed to have picked up yet: http://bit.ly/JKS4aV
    Apr 23 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All Of Europe's A Stage [View article]
    Please understand that I have no particular axe to grind as there is no incentive for me to be either bullish or bearish.

    I was (incorrectly) bearish late last year, but to paraphrase John Maynard Keynes: When the circumstances change, so does my view.
    Mar 12 08:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • All Of Europe's A Stage [View article]
    The Grand Plan has two components:

    1) "Good" austerity in the form of tax cuts and government cutbacks
    2) Structural reform, defined as union busting and the elimination of the Europe social model

    Part 2 creates sufficient labor flexibility to address the structural imbalances between northern and southern Europe.
    Mar 11 11:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Are All QEers Now [View article]
    For Draghi, LTRO/QE is part of the Grand Plan: http://bit.ly/ztR38z
    Feb 27 10:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preliminary Verdict: Consolidation And Correction [View article]
    Correction or consolidation.
    Feb 23 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breakout Or Consolidation? [View article]
    See the latest update, which does not seem to have been picked up by Seeking Alpha

    http://bit.ly/AlVgzQ
    Feb 22 10:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Breakout Or Consolidation? [View article]
    It's not the beat rate that's significant, but the recent direction of change that's intereresting. What's more significant is the progress in forward guidance, which has been negative but getting negative - which indicates improvement.
    Feb 20 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breakout Or Consolidation? [View article]
    The DJ Transports and Industrials negative divergence is another concern for the market. However, I prefer to look at foreign markets and non-equity markets, e.g. commodities, in my inter-market analysis as they tend to give us a broader picture of what's going on in the world. Remember that we are still in a binary risk on/risk off environment and those indicators are better measures of risk appetite.
    Feb 19 01:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3 Is Still On The Table [View article]
    See LTRO FAQ here: http://on.ft.com/AF3Kis

    As I understand it, there is no difference between what is acceptable as collateral under LTRO1 and LTRO2.

    Not sure if they could put up US Treasuries as it is not denominated in euros. Even if they did they would be unlikely to do so as they would be subject to margin calls should the currency move against them (remember that this could be a highly levered trade).
    Feb 6 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Dips And Sell The Rallies [View article]
    Use this link for the chart: http://bit.ly/zWSRJf
    Jan 5 06:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bull Case For Stocks [View article]
    My base case is a recessionary style bear, not an end-of-the-world Lehman/Creditanstalt type bear market. This would take the S&P 500 down to the 900-1000 level in 2012, which would create a superb buying opportunity.
    Dec 19 07:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
99 Comments
107 Likes