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  • Einhorn Says "Do Your Own Homework"

    At this year's Ira Sohn conference, Einhorn told investors they shouldn't follow him, or anyone, blindly into a trade. "Do your own homework" he told the crowd of hedge fund elites.

    After that, though, he said Greenlight holds its positions for quarters at a time and doesn't trade in-and-out for short-term wins.

    That said...what would it look like if you simply bought Greenlight's top 10 positions after they'd been disclosed on the 13F each quarter:

    http://blog.alphastratus.com/replicating-einhorns-top-10-positions-over-time/

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    May 09 9:02 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Some Takeaways From The Ira Sohn Conference

    Read our FULL article here

    The Ira Sohn conference took place yesterday at Lincoln Center where every year the "who's who" of the hedge fund elite present their best stock ideas to raise money for pediatric cancer. In recent years, the Ira Sohn conference has become something of a announcement platform for managers to disclose large activist or short positions.

    What follows are some highlights from this year's conference:

    Kyle Bass - Haymann Capital - Dex One Corp. (DEXO) & SuperMedia (SPMD) are two yellow pages companies which went bankrupt. The two have simultaneously come out of bankruptcy and merged to form Dex Media (DXM). An excellent writeup can be found here. Bass is saying Dex One could could be a solid turnaround play over the next three years. "It's a big event driven idea in our portfolio," he says. Bass owns about 5 million shares making him the largest hedge fund holder of this name. But Paulson & Co. has had a similar sized position (along with some other notable investors) for quarters:

    Full list of DEXO holders here

    (click to enlarge)

    Keith Meister - Corvex: Meister founded Corvex a few years ago after working for Cark Ichan. He's a value-investor who typically looks for positive catalysts to unlock value in good companies. He mentioned in this year's conference that he likes infrastructure assets (pipelines, cell towers, etc) and that the growth of mobile data is "up and to the right". He also said that "Carl taught me to keep things simple"

    His two ideas are TW Telecom (TWTC) and Level 3 (LVLT). He said he'll soon disclose (via 13D) a 6% position in TWTC and he thinks the company will be bought and that the current business is massively undervalued.

    He also owns 3% of Level 3 which he calls "a real estate play". "Level 3 reminds me of Sprint," he says. "When people start believing in the story, we think there's asymmetry to the risk/return and the downside risk has largely been removed."

    Interestingly, both of these positions are very small within his existing portfolio (unlike most of the other ideas shared by managers). A look at the top 10 holdings (by conviction) is shown below - most of which are common among other hedge funds. The full portfolio report can be found here:

    (click to enlarge)

    Bill Ackman - Pershing Sq.: Ackman didn't make one mention of Herbalife (which many were expecting - possibly because participants were limited to 15min each). But he did go into depth on JC Penny (JCP) which hasn't been a friend to him lately. Pershing Sq.'s full portfolio report can be found here.

    Mitchel Julis - Canyon Capital: Julis showed the Noah's Ark cartoon to the crowd which went over big. His idea this year is Clear Channel Outdoor (CCO). He doesn't say much other than it's trading at a depressed multiple. Interestingly, it's been in his portfolio for years:

    Full Canyon Capital Report available here

    (click to enlarge)

    The top institutional filers are below:

    (click to enlarge)

    Steven Eisman - Emrys Partners: Eisman is bullish on US real estate but thinks Canadian real estate (and as a result the banks) are in trouble. He thinks the US homebuilders are cheap and specifically calls out Ocwen Financial (OCN) as being especially undervalued.

    "Ocwen is the single most powerful play on US housing and the most misunderstood."

    (click to enlarge)

    The top institutional holders are:

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    May 09 7:33 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Piggybacking On Whitney Tilson's Stock Picks

    T2 Partners co-founders Whitney Tilson and (the less famous) Glen Tongue recently announced in a letter to investors that they were closing T2 Partners and going their separate ways.

    Tilson will remain at T2 but will re-invest from scratch. Glen will leave to start his own fund.

    Tilson is a died-in-the-wool value investor and a huge fan of Warren Buffett. Berkshire Hathaway has been a consistent top holding in the fund every year. A list of all T2's top 10 stock picks (for the last 5 years) is shown below:

    (click to enlarge)

    Berkshire Hathaway aside, T2 had some very good timing on its top position in 2009 & 2010, in particular (GGP & STX). Replicating his top position over time (buying 1 week after each 13F is released and holding for 1 quarter) would've earned you alot of money:

    (click to enlarge)

    It will be interesting to follow Whitney Tilson and Glenn Tongue's new funds going forward to see which one BRKB ends up in...and which one is worth cloning. T2's most recent top pick is especially interesting. Howard Hughes Corp (HHC) is the company that was spun out of General Growth Properties after bankruptcy in 2010:

    (click to enlarge)

    This company has had quite a run but stil looks compelling on a number of levels. Another interesting fact is that Bill Ackman at Pershing Square owns 3,568,017 shares which is over 9% outstanding as of the most recent 13F. Ackman is not known for sitting by idly without forcing an event to unlock shareholder value. And given the track record of T2's top picks over time, this could prove a profitable play for investors.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Aug 27 6:46 AM | Link | Comment!
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