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Capitalist Exploits

 
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  • Stability In Renminbi Offers An XXL Profit Opportunity
    Wed, Oct. 22 CNY 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Currencies can move and they move significantly when they have been sailing in calm waters for extended periods of time - just like the Chinese Renminbi now.
    • A reasonable bearish position on the Renminbi will be a great way to hedge out the uncertainty of outcomes with respect to how the Chinese economic miracle "unwinds".
    • Mark Hart who came to prominence after shorting the "sub-prime thing" in 2007 is applying his view on China via options on the Renminbi.
    • The return potential offered by options on the Renminbi is HUGE because volatility is grossly underpriced.
  • Are We Sitting Precariously Close To A Repeat Of The 1997 Asian Tiger Crisis?
    Tue, Oct. 7 FXSG 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Singapore is a very fragile economy highly dependent on dependent on the cost of capital staying low or at least rising very slowly over the coming years.
    • Singapore property prices have advanced some 50% since the start of 2006 and most of the price movement occurred from 2009 to 2013 (a period of an infinite QE program).
    • When Fed rates return to their historical averages, Singapore’s housing market will discover a double whammy of underwater homes and unaffordable interest payments.
    • Singapore is not alone in its fragility to rising interest rates. There is a region-wide emerging markets bubble.
  • The 'Sexy' Facts About Debt Markets
    Sat, Oct. 4 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Global debt levels have swollen to 200 year highs.
    • Debt ratios in the developed economies have grown by 20 percentage points to 275% of GDP since the beginning of the GFC.
    • In the emerging economies, debt ratios have grown with the same pace to 175% of GDP.
    • The Bank of International Settlements warned that global debt levels could trigger another Lehman-style crisis.
  • Round 2 For The Japanese Yen
    Fri, Sep. 12 FXY, YCS, JYN 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The second round of yen weakness is now occurring and there appears to be an identifiable catalyst.
    • The catalyst for the next wave of yen weakness is the most recent release of Japanese economic data which was worse than expected.
    • The longer Abe’s policies fail to deliver the hoped-for economic results, the more intensely they will be implemented.
    • Expect more yen weakness over the coming year as the exchange rate heads back towards the pre-2008 levels.
  • The Bubble Is In Cash, Not Stocks
    Fri, Sep. 5 25 Comments

    Summary

    • High cash levels equate to a huge pool of marginal buyers, rather than sellers, for stocks and other “real” assets.
    • Cash levels more or less the highest in a generation.
    • However one looks at it – cash is still a way more popular investment alternative than stocks.
    • If consumer confidence is anything to go by, we are probably only half way through the current bull market.
    • I think to a large extent the rise of the stock market in the past 5 years has been driven by corporate buybacks.
  • Coffee Mugs, Human Organs, And AK-47s
    Fri, Aug. 1 6 Comments
  • The World's Most Crowded Trade
    Wed, Jul. 30 ANGL, BSJE, BSJF 6 Comments
  • Value In France - Who Would Have Thought?
    Mon, Jul. 21 VE 19 Comments
  • A Tale Of 2 'Bull' Markets
    Fri, Jul. 11 DBC, SOCL, USCI 1 Comment
  • Killing Two Birds With One Stone: Capitalizing On 2 Exciting Trends
    Fri, Jul. 11 VNM Comment!
  • Is Crude Setting Up For Something Big?
    Fri, Jul. 11 USO, OIL, UCO 14 Comments