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  • Will The Dollar Bull Market Catch You By Surprise? [View article]
    The question is: how much of a move is already factored into the respective currencies?

    Yes, the JPY may well move substantially but it needs to because the cost of options already reflects a big move.

    For example, if you are to buy an ATM 12 month call on the USDJPY now it will cost you 0.500. If the JPY is now at 117, that is break even at 122, a 100% return at 128 and a 200% return at 133. That is a big move in the underlying (8.5%) to get a 100% return!

    The best payoff is in the Singapore Dollar, an ATM 12 month call will cost 0.03. With the SGD now at 1.30 break-even is at 1.33 and a 100% return at 1.36 - i.e. a 4.6% move in the underlying to achieve a 100% profit.

    It's all about the risk/reward payoff.
    Nov 19, 2014. 12:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Dollar Bull Market Catch You By Surprise? [View article]
    Yes, that's a fairly reasonable price.
    Nov 17, 2014. 08:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stability In Renminbi Offers An XXL Profit Opportunity [View article]
    CNY isn't a very good instrument to express a bearish view on the Renminbi and the options on it are even worse due to the very wide bid/offer spread.
    Oct 24, 2014. 04:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World's Most Crowded Trade [View article]
    Tinbox.

    The point I was making was that this is an asymmetric setup. Sure Junk bonds together with Government bonds may well stay low for a long time. That said the cost to put on a position is so low (historically low) that purely as a hedge this makes for great asset protection. Remember what volatility did just 6 years ago.

    That our monetary overlords are punishing savers is fact. You are extrapolating from that certain suppositions which are factually wrong.
    Jul 31, 2014. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Value In France - Who Would Have Thought? [View article]
    You can trade these on the IB platform and bid/offer is found there as well. Bloomberg terminal of course will also provide pricing.
    Cheap or expensive? This is dependent on a number of factors. For eg an option that needs to move 10% to breakeven is probably expensive if time to expiry is a few weeks away and vol is low. On the other hand if it has years to expiry and you can see the historic vol on the charts being multiples of that then it's cheap. As they say it's an art not a science:-)

    Good luck with your trading
    Jul 22, 2014. 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Value In France - Who Would Have Thought? [View article]
    To be clear all. There is a huge difference between the French people of whom I have many friends, and the French government who are a destructive force against the French people themselves.
    Jul 21, 2014. 04:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coming – Phase II Of The Mongolian Boom! [View instapost]
    Lol...tell Harris
    Jun 25, 2013. 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware These Unseen “Friction” Costs!! [View instapost]
    In truth I don't punch people in the face and will rather walk away. Time is precious and I don't have a lot of it. This is why I figure its better for others to do the job for me.:-)
    May 23, 2013. 03:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At 2 Japan ETFs That Hedge The Yen [View article]
    I agree with the comments made here with the exception that should we see a wholesale sell off in the Yen and collapse in the bond market then its not unthinkable to see Japanese stocks in nominal values do well while collapsing in real values. For this reason I'd caution against being long Japanese stocks.
    Apr 11, 2013. 04:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolia Revokes Licenses On Rio Tinto Mine [View article]
    That's because Mongolia did NOT revoke RIO's licence. This article is very confusing. The headine itself is flat out WRONG.
    I'd suggest reading Jon Springers articles. I know Jon and his due diligence is very good.
    Mar 10, 2013. 05:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontier Markets Investing 101 [View instapost]
    Thanks for your comments Andy.

    We're bullish on Myanmar/Burma
    I wrote about it here (http://bit.ly/V1CWPg ) and here ( http://bit.ly/13o67if) including a few other times. We recently invested in the country and are presently looking at 3 deals in country.
    Jan 11, 2013. 02:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why GDP Numbers Are A Farce! [View instapost]
    Very true. It reflects in the number of countries and organisations who have chosen to opt out of the entire system and simply not deal with Americans any longer. Why put up with the headache?
    May 22, 2012. 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Betting On An Inevitable And Overlooked Crisis [View instapost]
    Lots of questions here and in large part it depends on your trading style. We've recently put out a report dealing more comprehensively on this topic and how to trade it. You can check it out at http://bit.ly/Irmw8P
    Apr 8, 2012. 04:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Focus On Mongolian Mining Corporation, Mongolia's Flagship Public Company [View article]
    Fantastic analysis Jon. Thank you
    Mar 29, 2012. 03:14 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Betting On An Inevitable And Overlooked Crisis [View instapost]
    all good points. I'm of the opinion that the political process will overwhelm the Independence of the BOJ. I have just written about this at http://bit.ly/zslQeQ
    They will monetize because its the only politically feasible thing to do so I expect the currency will remain under pressure which will feed through into raising the cost of goods. Inflation doesn't need to ramp up much to flip the cards on the rationale for holding a 1% yeilding instrument in a 2% deflationary environment. Then we get a bond crisis but lets not get ahead of ourselves....we're not there yet.
    Mar 15, 2012. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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