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Capt. Spaulding  

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  • Are Western Companies' Assets Vulnerable In Russia? BP Is The Most Exposed Among Oil Majors [View article]
    Excellent article calling attention to an important topic. Investors need to keep in mind that the history of the oil industry is filled with instances when political risks turned into actual financial losses, some of them huge. Right now, Putin and the lawless thug-ocracy over which he presides are playing a high-stakes game against a background of domestic decay. That makes them unpredictable, and potentially very dangerous -- much more so than the old bureaucratic USSR was.

    In my view, there is no good reason to invest in shares of Russian companies. Period. There are many, many other opportunities around the world. If someone is tempted to put money into Russia, take a deep breath and think "Czarist bonds."
    Jun 26, 2015. 01:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget The Underdog, CorEnergy Is A Cinderella Story [View article]
    Brad: Thank you for your great work on this matter (and thanks to the knowledgeable contributors who posted comments). Much appreciated.

    My two cents: I established a partial position several months ago, added a little to it a while ago, and added a little more today on the price decline. In my view, CORR is as a "business man's risk" stock that has a reasonable chance to be successful in the intermediate-to-longer term if management can make good acquisitions on reasonable terms. Time will tell, and the market will let me know how the company is faring: if CORR's share price declines by more than 15% from my weighted cost per share, I'll sell it; if it doesn't, I'll let it ride or add some more; either way, I'll collect some dividends. Meanwhile, the CORR position accounts for a very small percentage of my portfolio. As I said, a speculation, not a core holding.

    And, yes, BofAML is a banker on the present deal.

    Jun 24, 2015. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harvesting Higher Yields With The Fallen Angel Bond ETF [View article]
    Fine analysis, as usual. But would most investors really feel comfortable making ANGL "a core part of a well-diversified portfolio" in light of the liquidity risk associated with the shares' very low daily volume? IMO, that is a non-trivial risk, one that mars an otherwise very attractive story.
    Jun 22, 2015. 01:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Petroleum Engineer's Perspective: Which E&Ps To Bet On In A Market Downturn [View article]
    Exceptionally good, very informative article. Thank you for sharing your work.

    An aside: I was a financial editor on the sell side for 35 years. In that time, the work of many, many writers crossed my desk (economists, securities analysts, technicians, fixed-income analysts, etc.). Almost without exception, I found that the folks who thought and wrote most clearly were those who, at some point in their careers, were trained as engineers. Just sayin'... (smile).

    Capt. Spaulding

    disclosure: longtime long OXY, XOM. Considering MRO, EOG, DVN, BP.
    Jun 22, 2015. 10:18 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vector Group: A Hidden Gem In The Tobacco Sector [View article]
    I second the motion endorsing VGR. My two cents: watch the real estate operation as the quarters/years go on.

    Also long MO, PM, UVV (a very interesting company that may be setting up for a string of good Q-over-Q comps as it pays strong dividends).
    Jun 2, 2015. 06:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Shouldn't Put Too Much Weight On Dividends [View article]
    Hats off to Mother Buyandhold. And a good old fashioned Bronx cheer to Ellie Lan, who appears to lack both judgment and perspective.
    May 20, 2015. 10:01 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Diamonds Are Forever [View article]
    The first bullet line of this article is: "Estimated common earnings for 2020 of $24.6 to $27.3 billion based on the Federal Reserve’s long-run federal funds forecast."

    That alone ought to be a red flag for any experienced investor/reader. It is a close-to-100% certain sign that the article that follows, its authors, and its conclusions do not deserve to be taken seriously. And, sure enough, the rest of the piece demonstrates exactly that.

    Readers ought to ask: who wrote such an intellectually dishonest puff-piece, and why?

    May 15, 2015. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ares Capital Corporation: More Resilient Than Prospect Capital? [View article]
    Did the writer manage to get through this entire article without mentioning the uncertainty presently swirling around ARCC's joint venture with GE Capital? Really?? (shaking my head in disbelief)
    May 11, 2015. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Perfect Storm For STAG [View article]
    Brad: Thanks, once again, for sharing your thoughts. There seems to be much to like about STAG, and I'll be looking into it further. One question for you: what could go wrong?
    May 8, 2015. 09:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Are Short Ares Capital [View article]

    Thank you for the heads-up on ARCC and GE, and the follow-ups. Based in part on your analysis, I sold my ARCC position above 17. The bottom line for me: in ARCC's current position, the upside was very limited and the downside was quite sizable, so it became time to head for the sidelines.

    I'm now waiting for the dust to settle to determine whether to look for a re-entry point or to move on. Hope you'll continue sharing your thoughts.

    Capt. Spaulding
    May 5, 2015. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2016 Could Be The Tipping Point For Full Marijuana With Big Tobacco Poised To Strike [View article]
    Good article, sound advice. Thanks.

    General question: does anyone know of companies that supply equipment for marijuana growers (greenhouses? hydroponics?) and would benefit from further legalization?

    Long: MO, PM, UVV
    Apr 30, 2015. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Has Ignored This Healthcare REIT, Maybe You Shouldn't [View article]
    Thank you for another remarkably good, well-balanced analysis. It's always worthwhile to read what you have to say.

    re NHI: not my cup of tea, at least at the present price. A key yellow flag for me: "Around 32% of NHI's revenues are generated from government funded reimbursement (one of the highest in the sector)." One of the investing adages I keep in mind is, "What Uncle Sam giveth, Uncle Sam taketh away."

    long: O, LXP, STWD
    Apr 27, 2015. 08:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retired Dividend Investors Are Deluded By Yield On Cost [View article]
    Thanks for the discussion of YOC. I've thought about that metric, and come to a couple of conclusions. First, it seems to be to be a backward looking metric that is very useful in gauging how a particular investment has done over a period of years, but provides little useful insight into how it will do in the future.

    Second, a high YOC can foster the kind of pat-yourself-on-the-back mindset that encourages the wrong kind of buy-and-hold thinking. By that I mean the "I've fallen in love with the stock" view that ignores unfavorable changes in fundamentals and/or valuations.

    Just sayin'....
    Apr 25, 2015. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Are Short Ares Capital [View article]
    "...there's always a Piper to pay."

    Indeed. And he often gets a high price.

    Thank you for the discussion of ARCC's situation. Much appreciated.
    Apr 23, 2015. 09:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: A Bull Case Rebuttal [View article]
    Some thoughts on BofA:

    First, there often is a sharp distinction between a good company and a good stock. BAC might well prove to be a good stock in the quarters ahead if it goes up a few points and post a nice percentage gain. But, in my opinion, BofA will never be a good company as long at the current management is in place. I believe that the term "incompetent" can reasonably be used to describe the management team. The term "corrupt" appears a few comments above this one; I wouldn't disagree.

    Second, I suspect that many of the favorable comments that appear on SA in response to articles that criticize BofA are planted; i.e., people in the company's investor relations department, or blind loyalists, may well monitor this site and try to counter the unfavorable comments that the current management team has so rightly earned. Such shilling would be completely in keeping with the company's style.
    Apr 22, 2015. 10:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment