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Capt. Spaulding  

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  • Why We Are Short Ares Capital [View article]
    "...there's always a Piper to pay."

    Indeed. And he often gets a high price.

    Thank you for the discussion of ARCC's situation. Much appreciated.
    Apr 23, 2015. 09:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: A Bull Case Rebuttal [View article]
    Some thoughts on BofA:

    First, there often is a sharp distinction between a good company and a good stock. BAC might well prove to be a good stock in the quarters ahead if it goes up a few points and post a nice percentage gain. But, in my opinion, BofA will never be a good company as long at the current management is in place. I believe that the term "incompetent" can reasonably be used to describe the management team. The term "corrupt" appears a few comments above this one; I wouldn't disagree.

    Second, I suspect that many of the favorable comments that appear on SA in response to articles that criticize BofA are planted; i.e., people in the company's investor relations department, or blind loyalists, may well monitor this site and try to counter the unfavorable comments that the current management team has so rightly earned. Such shilling would be completely in keeping with the company's style.
    Apr 22, 2015. 10:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE: Setting An Example [View article]
    My two cents:

    re GE: Immelt didn't take this path voluntarily, IMO. He was pushed/dragged along it by the terrible performance of GE's stock in recent years. Give him some credit, however, for eventually, if belatedly, making the correct decision.

    re BAC: Yes, they are "leaderless," as the author says. And, what's worse, they're clueless. There is a certain type of person who is so obtuse and incapable of learning that they don't even know they are incompetent (incompetent in the strict sense of the word, meaning "lack of the ability to do something well"). That type fills the management ranks of BAC.

    (I guess that's four cents.)
    Apr 13, 2015. 08:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Government And Corporate Indebtedness Provide Investment Opportunity [View article]
    Agreed. IPKW's liquidity risk is way too high for my taste, even though the rationale is attractive.

    disclosure: long PKW
    Apr 11, 2015. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buybacks Are Not Just An Accounting Trick [View article]
    A good article, yes, but some data would have been nice. Here are some. Note that all performance figures are through Feb. 27, 2015, the last day I updated this file.

    The S&P 500 Buyback Index tracks the performance of the top 100 stocks with the highest buyback ratios in the S&P 500. The Buyback Index has consistently done better than the broad market index over the past decade.

    S&P 500 Buyback Index

    YTD 2.6% 3.9%
    1 Year 15.1 19.3
    3-Year annl. Ret. 18.0 24.4
    5-Year annl. Ret. 16.2 21.1
    10-Year annl. Ret. 8.0 12.1
    Source: http://bit.ly/1CzaA0h

    S&P notes that the Buyback Index was launched at the end of November, 2012; data before that date were backtested. Since the index went “live,” it has outpaced the S&P 500 83.5% to 55.8%.

    That’s the overview. PowerShares Buyback Achievers ETF (PKW) is one way that investors have been able to participate in the remarkable outperformance that buyback stocks have achieved. Since its inception late in December, 2012, PKW’s price has advanced by about 100% vs. a gain of about 50% for the S&P 500.

    disclosure: long PKW
    Apr 9, 2015. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buybacks Are Not Just An Accounting Trick [View article]
    Good article, as far as it goes, but data would have been helpful. Here's some perspective on how investors have done when it comes to buybacks. Note that all of the figures below are through Feb. 27, 2015, the last time I updated them in the files I keep.

    The S&P 500 Buyback Index tracks the performance of the top 100 stocks with the highest buyback ratios in the S&P 500. The Buyback Index has consistently done better than the broad market index over the past decade.

    S&P 500 Vs. Buyback Index

    YTD (2/27/15) 2.6% 3.9%
    1 Year 15.1 19.3
    3-Year annl. Ret. 18.0 24.4
    5-Year annl. Ret. 16.2 21.1
    10-Year annl. Ret. 8.0 12.1
    Source: http://bit.ly/1CzaA0h

    S&P notes that the Buyback Index was launched at the end of November, 2012; data before that date were backtested. Since the index went “live,” it has outpaced the S&P 500 83.5% to 55.8%.

    That’s the overview. PowerShares Buyback Achievers ETF (PKW) is one way that investors have been able to participate in the remarkable outperformance that buyback stocks have achieved. Since its inception late in December, 2012, PKW’s price has advanced by about 100% vs. a gain of about 50% for the S&P 500.

    disclosure: long PKW
    Apr 9, 2015. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Top First Quarter Pick Took Off Without Me [View article]
    Grain of salt department: Haven't there been whispers that Goldman has been know to talk its book from time to time? Just sayin'....
    Apr 8, 2015. 09:10 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One ETF To Avoid In 2015 [View article]
    Thanks for posting this well-thought-out article. Based on your arguments, I am rethinking my long position in PCY.
    Mar 29, 2015. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rampant Mispricing Makes Specialty REITs An Interesting Space [View article]
    Thank you for the article. Already long CORR, and will be doing some research on the others you mention.
    Mar 27, 2015. 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: The Sharks Have Begun To Circle [View article]
    David:

    Fair points. Noted.

    Thanks once again for the fine articles you publish.

    Cheers,
    Capt. Spaulding
    Mar 26, 2015. 12:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: The Sharks Have Begun To Circle [View article]
    David:

    Thanks for this article, one of the many by you that I have benefited from reading.

    One (possibly pedantic) quibble from a former financial editor: the headline gives the impression that the story will be negative toward KMI. It isn't until fairly deep into the copy that the reader realizes that the "shark" reference is intended to be positive, along with the rest of the article.

    Just some constructive, well-intentioned nit-picking.

    Cheers,
    Capt. Spaulding
    Mar 26, 2015. 09:58 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Go Ugly Early When It Comes To Benjamin Graham's Stocks Trading Below Net Current Asset Value [View article]
    As a very successful, Street-wise old timer once said to me a number of years ago, "I'd rather have one good stock picker working for me than a roomful of quants."
    Mar 25, 2015. 10:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Won't Be Heating Up My Portfolio [View article]
    If I'm not mistaken, there is another, cyclical, potential plus in UVV's outlook. As far as I can tell, the company is in what may be the early stages of coming out of an unfavorable inventory cycle. Just something else to consider.

    Mt two cents: The stock recently bounced up sharply from the high 30s. Getting in at current prices (mid-40s) probably should involve stops. However, the dividend, the buyback, the good company's financial position, and the chance for a more-favorable inventory cycle make UVV interesting for a modest position.

    disclosure: long UVV
    Mar 10, 2015. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Good News Is Bad News For The Markets And Great News For REIT Buyers [View article]
    Good article, good approach. My two cents: stock with very high-quality names.

    Careful stock selection + discipline + long time horizon = excellent chance for success.
    Mar 8, 2015. 11:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: This One Chart May Spell 'The End' For Immelt [View article]
    dealraker:

    You have described GE's Welch period and his legacy precisely. Sell side analysts pumped the stock in the Welch years because (1) GE was a fee-machine for investment bankers and, (2) Welch played them like violins, appealing to their vanity.

    IMO, Welch was (and remains) a buncombe artist. But the stock soared on his watch, so no one complained, at least publicly.
    Mar 5, 2015. 10:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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