Consolidated Water Is A Worthy Speculative Buy In The Water Segment [View article]
I agree that investing in water-related assets is interesting and potentially very rewarding, and I am long some myself (WTR, AWK).
The author of this article is correct in characterizing CWCO as "speculative." Indeed, the political risk, vulnerability to increases in energy costs, and the legal and impairment risks (mentioned in the comments) all make CWCO a "businessman's risk stock," as the old saying goes. Other risks to consider are the stock's liquidity (no pun intended) -- only about 50K shares trade a day, on average, according to FINVIZ --and its volatility -- which is on the high side.
The stock has had a nice run lately and now is some 40% above its 52-week low. It is on my watch list, and I'd probably start buying some below 7.50. That's my two ounces worth....
Sell In April And Go Away? How To Capitalize [View article]
Mr. Parnell:
Excellent article, as usual, and good food for thought. May I add my two cents?
Some of the ETFs you suggest as parking places during a stock-market setback have very low average trading volumes (GTU trades fewer than 45K shares a day, for example, according to FINVIZ; EDV fewer than 30K). That makes me think that investors might want to consider liquidity risk when establishing positions in them or in similar "safer" harbors.
That raises the issue of timing. When will the long-awaited decline get under way? April? May? Summer? Fall? No one knows. Despite shaky fundamentals, QEternity and Europe's woes could continue to be the helium that keeps US stock-price balloon aloft for quite a while. But when a downturn starts, some of the attractive but low-volume ETFs might not be able to absorb large inflows efficiently.
One way to deal with the problem: investors might want to establish protective positions now even though they would forgo some upside potential. That could make sense, because the market's upside appears to be limited in relation to the fall it could take when the balloon starts to leak.
Johnson & Johnson: Throwing In The Towel [View article]
Ms. Maller:
Your case against holding JNJ gives a great deal of weight to theory and past events. Here are a few thoughts that might provide some additional perspectives for investors to consider before they "give up" on JNJ:
First, experience shows that "boring" isn't necessarily bad when it comes to long-term returns. Large-cap, financially solid, dividend-generating stocks such as JNJ tend to do quite well over time.
Second (as a previous comments mentioned): the company appears to be addressing some of the problems that have dogged it during the past several years, and the stock has been doing well lately. It has advanced by about 12% so far in 2013 and by 26% during the past year vs. 9% and 18%, respectively, for SPY (FINVIS data). That's often the pattern when a "lumbering giant" starts to show signs of becoming more limber, and there may be more to come.
Finally: of course there is a place in portfolios for the shares of companies that, as you say, "harness the growth potential of the healthcare market with a top notch operator." But most portfolios need some ballast in the form of low-beta, blue chip, dividend-payers, and JNJ fills the bill. Which "top notch operator" would you buy now with the proceeds from the sale of JNJ stock?
I'm long JNJ, but by no means am I "in love" with it. I'm simply suggesting that this might not be a good time to give up on it.
Dow 15K? A Look Under The Hood Leaves Me Feeling Good [View article]
Nice article, and a very interesting, informative table. Thank you.
An earlier comment (by bsorge) nails the underlying reason for taking a moderately bullish view of the market's prospects: Dr. Professor Bernanke's full-throttle, ignore-the-consequences monetary policy. As long as he continues to reassure investors that the torrent of liquidity will flow, asset prices are likely to remain buoyant with an upward bias, despite the danger signals that are flashing in the real economy. For investors, the trick will be to try to get out a step ahead of the eventual crunch.
GEM USD Debt ETFs: The Run Looks Done [View article]
This article's headline promised to explain why the "run" is finished for this type of ETF. I read the piece twice, and the comments, and still don't know why the writer made that assertion.
Of course EMs warrant a risk premium, and of course EM central banks act differently from those of much larger nations. Why belabor the obvious?
Fine article. WTR really is one of the lesser-known gems of the equities market. I've held the stock since late 2009. Since I bought it, the company has increaed the dividend by 21%, and the stock price has risen by about 82%% vs. 39% for the S&P 500 (through 2/22/13). Not bad for a stock in a "boring" sector. My other holdings all should be so dull.
Excellent article. Too bad that it is absolutely impossible to shame analysts; in that regard, they are just like lawyers and politicians.
A general observation from my 35 years of work in Wall Street research departments, mostly on the sell side: there are a few good analysts who try to do honest, thorough work, but they are rare as hens' teeth.
The vast majority of analysts are egomaniacs, and the rest are drones who are completely cowed by the managers who determine their bonuses. Either way, they know that their job is to "ring the cash register" for their employers, via trading and/or banking activity. To do so, analysts take dictation from the companies they cover; rewrite it a bit here and there (but not enough to offend their contacts); add a chart or graph or two and perhaps a dash of mathematical mumbo-jumbo; and run the resulting "report" past the compliant Compliance Department to provide a measure of cover for all concerned. At the end of the process, they hit the "publish" button, and, voila! , out comes "original research."
The message: when handling sell-side research, use tongs, rubber gloves, and an inhaler.
This article is one of the best-written tours-of-the-horizon that I have read in my 40 years or so of being in and around the financial markets. Moreover -- and more important -- it offers excellent advice. Any comments I might make would only be gilding the lilly, so here's a tip of the hat to Mr. Parnell, and a suggestion to investors who might read this comment: pay attention to what he has to say.
I am a newcomer to BDCs, and appreciate the informative article and comments. Many thanks.
Two questions: with the BDCS ETF in mind, how would the industry as a whole be likey to fare if the current macro climate persists (sluggish-growth/near-... Fed spigots wide open)?
Second: what reports, articles, etc., you would recommend for further reading and/or recommendations?
Don't Confuse Sector Rotation With A Correction [View article]
Some quick poking around led me to Bespoke Investment's website, which has a table labeled "Historical Sector Weightings of the S&P 500: 1990-Current". It shows that the Tech sector's peak weighting was 29.2% in 1999. That was by far the highest proportion for any sector during the time period shown. The runner-up was the Financial sector, which peaked at 22.3% in 2006.
Hi, Eric. Thanks for another witty, insightful article.
You (and Retired Colonel) have hit the nail on the head: Dr. Prof. Bernanke is the market's enabler, and history strongly suggests that the forces he has set in motion are bound to result in a very bad ending (if not a financial and economic disaster).
How can individual investors minimize the damage to their portfolios once the Great Unraveling begins? By being nimble enough to move out most stocks and ride out the storm in traditional safe harbors (gold and cash equivalents, in my view). The key, of course, is determining when to start making the move. What will be the tell-tale signs that investors should look for to see the affair is ending? Any suggestions?
Don't Confuse Sector Rotation With A Correction [View article]
Good, thoughtful article, as usual. Thanks for posting it.
Here's a quick observation about the shifts in the sectors of the S&P 500: Years ago, I heard a wise old stock-market hand say that he always thought it was a caution signal when the capitalization of an individual sector rose to 20% or more of that of the index as a whole. I've found that that is a useful rule of thumb to keep in mind.
Intel Corp: Fundamental Stock Research Analysis [View article]
eclipsme, HackFab:
Excellent points. Users generally don't "need" new, more powerful PCs, nor do they "need" software with more bells and whistles.
What are the investment implications of those givens? In my view, one answer is that the "commodity play" element is important in making investment decisions about INTC, as is the influence of the state of the overall economy on the demand for the company's products.
That certainly isn't a new insight, but it is worth mentioning, particularly because many investors seem to be waiting for the stock to pull back further to add to positions. I'm one of them.
VXX and products with similar structures entail risks that investors need to take into consideration. This SA article is one among many that provide some good information:
Consolidated Water Is A Worthy Speculative Buy In The Water Segment [View article]
The author of this article is correct in characterizing CWCO as "speculative." Indeed, the political risk, vulnerability to increases in energy costs, and the legal and impairment risks (mentioned in the comments) all make CWCO a "businessman's risk stock," as the old saying goes. Other risks to consider are the stock's liquidity (no pun intended) -- only about 50K shares trade a day, on average, according to FINVIZ --and its volatility -- which is on the high side.
The stock has had a nice run lately and now is some 40% above its 52-week low. It is on my watch list, and I'd probably start buying some below 7.50. That's my two ounces worth....
Sell In April And Go Away? How To Capitalize [View article]
Excellent article, as usual, and good food for thought. May I add my two cents?
Some of the ETFs you suggest as parking places during a stock-market setback have very low average trading volumes (GTU trades fewer than 45K shares a day, for example, according to FINVIZ; EDV fewer than 30K). That makes me think that investors might want to consider liquidity risk when establishing positions in them or in similar "safer" harbors.
That raises the issue of timing. When will the long-awaited decline get under way? April? May? Summer? Fall? No one knows. Despite shaky fundamentals, QEternity and Europe's woes could continue to be the helium that keeps US stock-price balloon aloft for quite a while. But when a downturn starts, some of the attractive but low-volume ETFs might not be able to absorb large inflows efficiently.
One way to deal with the problem: investors might want to establish protective positions now even though they would forgo some upside potential. That could make sense, because the market's upside appears to be limited in relation to the fall it could take when the balloon starts to leak.
Johnson & Johnson: Throwing In The Towel [View article]
Your case against holding JNJ gives a great deal of weight to theory and past events. Here are a few thoughts that might provide some additional perspectives for investors to consider before they "give up" on JNJ:
First, experience shows that "boring" isn't necessarily bad when it comes to long-term returns. Large-cap, financially solid, dividend-generating stocks such as JNJ tend to do quite well over time.
Second (as a previous comments mentioned): the company appears to be addressing some of the problems that have dogged it during the past several years, and the stock has been doing well lately. It has advanced by about 12% so far in 2013 and by 26% during the past year vs. 9% and 18%, respectively, for SPY (FINVIS data). That's often the pattern when a "lumbering giant" starts to show signs of becoming more limber, and there may be more to come.
Finally: of course there is a place in portfolios for the shares of companies that, as you say, "harness the growth potential of the healthcare market with a top notch operator." But most portfolios need some ballast in the form of low-beta, blue chip, dividend-payers, and JNJ fills the bill. Which "top notch operator" would you buy now with the proceeds from the sale of JNJ stock?
I'm long JNJ, but by no means am I "in love" with it. I'm simply suggesting that this might not be a good time to give up on it.
The Most Overvalued Stocks Versus The Most Undervalued Stocks - Part I [View article]
Dow 15K? A Look Under The Hood Leaves Me Feeling Good [View article]
An earlier comment (by bsorge) nails the underlying reason for taking a moderately bullish view of the market's prospects: Dr. Professor Bernanke's full-throttle, ignore-the-consequences monetary policy. As long as he continues to reassure investors that the torrent of liquidity will flow, asset prices are likely to remain buoyant with an upward bias, despite the danger signals that are flashing in the real economy. For investors, the trick will be to try to get out a step ahead of the eventual crunch.
GEM USD Debt ETFs: The Run Looks Done [View article]
Of course EMs warrant a risk premium, and of course EM central banks act differently from those of much larger nations. Why belabor the obvious?
All in all, a strange, pointless article.
Aqua America: Pure And Simple [View article]
Copy And Paste Research Reporting [View article]
A general observation from my 35 years of work in Wall Street research departments, mostly on the sell side: there are a few good analysts who try to do honest, thorough work, but they are rare as hens' teeth.
The vast majority of analysts are egomaniacs, and the rest are drones who are completely cowed by the managers who determine their bonuses. Either way, they know that their job is to "ring the cash register" for their employers, via trading and/or banking activity. To do so, analysts take dictation from the companies they cover; rewrite it a bit here and there (but not enough to offend their contacts); add a chart or graph or two and perhaps a dash of mathematical mumbo-jumbo; and run the resulting "report" past the compliant Compliance Department to provide a measure of cover for all concerned. At the end of the process, they hit the "publish" button, and, voila! , out comes "original research."
The message: when handling sell-side research, use tongs, rubber gloves, and an inhaler.
Fear And Loathing On Wall Street [View article]
This article is one of the best-written tours-of-the-horizon that I have read in my 40 years or so of being in and around the financial markets. Moreover -- and more important -- it offers excellent advice. Any comments I might make would only be gilding the lilly, so here's a tip of the hat to Mr. Parnell, and a suggestion to investors who might read this comment: pay attention to what he has to say.
Cheers,
Capt. Spaulding
An Assault On Yield-Oriented ETFs [View article]
Two questions: with the BDCS ETF in mind, how would the industry as a whole be likey to fare if the current macro climate persists (sluggish-growth/near-... Fed spigots wide open)?
Second: what reports, articles, etc., you would recommend for further reading and/or recommendations?
Cheers,
Capt. Spaulding
Don't Confuse Sector Rotation With A Correction [View article]
50 Shades Of Stock Market Grey [View article]
You (and Retired Colonel) have hit the nail on the head: Dr. Prof. Bernanke is the market's enabler, and history strongly suggests that the forces he has set in motion are bound to result in a very bad ending (if not a financial and economic disaster).
How can individual investors minimize the damage to their portfolios once the Great Unraveling begins? By being nimble enough to move out most stocks and ride out the storm in traditional safe harbors (gold and cash equivalents, in my view). The key, of course, is determining when to start making the move. What will be the tell-tale signs that investors should look for to see the affair is ending? Any suggestions?
Cheers,
Capt. Spaulding
Don't Confuse Sector Rotation With A Correction [View article]
Here's a quick observation about the shifts in the sectors of the S&P 500: Years ago, I heard a wise old stock-market hand say that he always thought it was a caution signal when the capitalization of an individual sector rose to 20% or more of that of the index as a whole. I've found that that is a useful rule of thumb to keep in mind.
Intel Corp: Fundamental Stock Research Analysis [View article]
Excellent points. Users generally don't "need" new, more powerful PCs, nor do they "need" software with more bells and whistles.
What are the investment implications of those givens? In my view, one answer is that the "commodity play" element is important in making investment decisions about INTC, as is the influence of the state of the overall economy on the demand for the company's products.
That certainly isn't a new insight, but it is worth mentioning, particularly because many investors seem to be waiting for the stock to pull back further to add to positions. I'm one of them.
Is It Time To Avoid The Crowd? [View article]
VXX and products with similar structures entail risks that investors need to take into consideration. This SA article is one among many that provide some good information:
http://seekingalpha.co...
Cheers,
Capt. Spaulding