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Capt. Spaulding

 
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  • Seadrill: How To Play With A Falling Knife [View article]
    Nice to see an actionable article, even though I happen to disagree with the conclusions.

    IMO, there is no need to go anywhere near a stock/company such as SDRL, with its own inherent industry risks and overlay of political risk. (I speak from hard-won experience, having lost some money during one of this stock's past gyrations.)

    One of the great things about the marketplace is that it always offers other opportunities. All it takes is some work to unearth them.
    Sep 30 09:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Putin Is Winning The Cold War: Fight Back With These 3 Natural Gas Winners [View article]
    Food for thought: Blackstone, which is run by some pretty savvy folks, appears to be getting out of Russia. Just saying....

    http://reut.rs/1sfHqF7
    Sep 21 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gazprom: High Dividend Yield + Some Upside Potential [View article]
    More food for thought: Blackstone, which is run by some fairly savvy people, appears to be getting out of Russia.

    http://reut.rs/1sfHqF7
    Sep 21 04:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stocks: All Better Now? [View article]
    "Preserve capital." That is the one phrase that every investor ought to have engraved on a plaque above his or her desk. Now more than ever, in my view.

    Watch Eric's trading channels, and watch the market's leadership. The narrower the leadership, the brighter the yellow lamp glows.
    Sep 18 09:41 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is A Stealth Liquidation In Stocks Underway? [View article]
    Another fine, thoughtful article by Eric. Thank you once again.

    Eric and Retired Colonel touch on something very important: correlations among asset classes and within the stock market. History shows that investors need to pay attention when correlations across many disparate type of assets begin to converge. That could be a sign that a deep, high-volume setback of the "no place to hide" variety is starting to take shape beneath the surface of the S&P 500 and other major market measures.

    What are the odds that such a setback will occur? No one knows. My two cents is that -- barring a major geopolitical shock or similar black swan event -- any coming correction is likely to be a slow-erosion rather than an earthquake. That's based on the assumption that investors will realize that the withdrawal of Fed stimulus is a good thing, one that will remove distortions in the financial markets and let the pricing/capital-alloca... mechanism function more effectively.

    Nonetheless, however a coming correction plays out, Eric's warnings are well-taken. If he ever decides that it's time to "head for the hills," I hope that he'll publish an article telling us so before he starts running.
    Sep 16 10:30 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gazprom: High Dividend Yield + Some Upside Potential [View article]
    This is from the Financial Times, Sep. 6:

    "Russia's Gazprom Bank and oil producer Gazprom Neft will fall under new sanctions approved by the European Union on Friday, Reuters cited an EU diplomat as saying. The sanctions reportedly include a new ban on raising capital in the 28-nation bloc.

    "The sanctions were agreed against Russia for its alleged role in the Ukrainian crisis, the diplomatic source said.

    "According to The Financial Times, which managed to obtain a document outlining the sanctions, all Russian state-controlled companies with assets of more than one trillion rubles (US$27 billion) that receive more than half their revenue from “the sale or transportation of crude oil or petroleum products” will be hit by the ban.""
    Sep 8 01:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gazprom: High Dividend Yield + Some Upside Potential [View article]
    pim1 asks: "Who can tell me that why Gazprom is valued (P/E) wise only 1/4 of STATOIL besides one is russian [sic] company and another is Norway company?"

    I can. The reason is that Norwegian society and Norwegian companies operate under the rule of law. Russian society and Russian companies do not.
    Sep 7 03:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gazprom: High Dividend Yield + Some Upside Potential [View article]
    I can not understand why any investor would risk taking a position in the securities of any Russian company, or in those of any non-Russian company that derives a sizable portion of its business from that country. Investing in Russia entails an extraordinary set of risks. On the economic front, demographic trends indicate that it is all but certain that Russia's long-term decline, which already is under way, will accelerate in the next several years, despite the country's wealth of natural resources. Meanwhile, it is run by a kleptocracy that does not acknowledge the rule of law, let alone honor contracts. That's a volatile mix, to say the least.

    One of the glories of the marketplace is that it always presents alternate opportunities. There are many, many more-attractive opportunities around the world than those related to Russia. Just ask folks who held Czarist-era bonds.
    Sep 6 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investissements Sans Frontieres [View article]
    re "cynic:"

    Ambrose Bierce defined a cynic as someone who sees things as they are, not as they ought to be. Just sayin'....
    Sep 5 03:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Waiting Patiently For This Blue Chip REIT To Go On Sale [View article]
    nsolot:

    You caught my eye with your comment about buying a risky and a less-risky stock in the same group in order to get a blended dividend yield. I think of that approach as a "quality barbell," and have been using it for quite a few years, particularly with telecom, energy, and tobacco stocks. In recent years, I've extend it to REITs, private equity companies, and BDCs. It's a strategy that requires patience, careful selection and monitoring, and (as always) some luck, but -- so far -- it has been rewarding.

    Long O, LXP, STWD. Waiting for NNN.
    Aug 27 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Putin Is Winning The Cold War: Fight Back With These 3 Natural Gas Winners [View article]
    George:

    Agreed. Glad that others see clearly what has been happening with Russia, and what is likely to come. One quibble about timing: Putin, who is playing an intermediate-to-long-term game, is crafty enough to pullback from the brink if he can see an advantage in doing so. That's because he knows full well that Western leaders will be only to happy to give him some running room in return for being able to postpone making any substantive decisions.

    Churchill was correct in the months immediately after the end of the Kaiser's War: we should have smothered Bolshevism in its cradle.

    Cheers,
    Capt. Spaulding
    Aug 24 11:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putin Is Winning The Cold War: Fight Back With These 3 Natural Gas Winners [View article]
    Russia is an extremely difficult position, one that poses great danger to the rest of the world (including China). On the economic front, demographic trends indicate that it is all but certain that Russia's long-term decline, which already is under way, will accelerate in the next several years, despite the country's wealth of natural resources. Meanwhile, it is run by a kleptocracy that does not acknowledge the rule of law, let alone honor contracts. That's a volatile mix, to say the least.

    In my view, it is beyond understanding why any investor would risk taking a position in the securities of any Russian company, or in those of any non-Russian company that derives a sizable portion of its business from that country. One of the glories of the marketplace is that it always presents alternate opportunities. There are many, many more-attractive opportunities around the world than those related to Russia. Just ask folks who held Czarist-era bonds.
    Aug 24 03:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Build A 'Whatever Happens' Portfolio... Now [View article]
    Excellent article. Thank you for posting it on SA.

    This section made me smile:

    "Personally, I prefer nations with a hard-working populace, recent experience with the "workers paradise" of socialism, and no albatross of welfarist public coddling. I'll take France, Spain and Greece for the weather and the Republic of Korea, Poland and Latvia for nations that will repay their debts honestly. PCY fits that bill."

    Nice combination of clear thinking, solid investment advice, and good writing. Looking forward to more.

    disclosure: long PCY
    Aug 18 11:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Same Returns With Half The Risk? [View article]
    Thank you for the excellent article. There certainly is a lot to be said for your investment approach. In fact, I follow a version of it myself. Year-to-date, my portfolio -- which has a beta of 0.42 -- is a couple of percentage points ahead of the S&P 500.

    That could change for the worse in a flash, of course, depending on the whims of the market gods. But, like you, I'm willing to take the risk/reward trade-off. The way I look at it is this. Losses are real, and they could be devastating; why not try to limit them in a prudent way that still provides some upside potential? On the flip side, it is very difficult for an individual, retired investor to try to match the performance of the broad market in a strong upturn such as we had in 2013; so why take the risk inherent in that approach? The comfort zone between the two is the investment mix that provides reasonable returns and still lets you sleep at night.
    Aug 15 10:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 REIT Ideas For The Buy-The-Dip High-Yield Portfolio In August 2014 [View article]
    Another good article. Thank you!

    I'm long LXP, and plan to look into the other two you mention.
    Aug 14 10:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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