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Capt. Spaulding  

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  • Why You Shouldn't Put Too Much Weight On Dividends [View article]
    Hats off to Mother Buyandhold. And a good old fashioned Bronx cheer to Ellie Lan, who appears to lack both judgment and perspective.
    May 20, 2015. 10:01 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Diamonds Are Forever [View article]
    The first bullet line of this article is: "Estimated common earnings for 2020 of $24.6 to $27.3 billion based on the Federal Reserve’s long-run federal funds forecast."

    That alone ought to be a red flag for any experienced investor/reader. It is a close-to-100% certain sign that the article that follows, its authors, and its conclusions do not deserve to be taken seriously. And, sure enough, the rest of the piece demonstrates exactly that.

    Readers ought to ask: who wrote such an intellectually dishonest puff-piece, and why?


    May 15, 2015. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ares Capital Corporation: More Resilient Than Prospect Capital? [View article]
    Did the writer manage to get through this entire article without mentioning the uncertainty presently swirling around ARCC's joint venture with GE Capital? Really?? (shaking my head in disbelief)
    May 11, 2015. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Perfect Storm For STAG [View article]
    Brad: Thanks, once again, for sharing your thoughts. There seems to be much to like about STAG, and I'll be looking into it further. One question for you: what could go wrong?
    May 8, 2015. 09:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Are Short Ares Capital [View article]
    NM:

    Thank you for the heads-up on ARCC and GE, and the follow-ups. Based in part on your analysis, I sold my ARCC position above 17. The bottom line for me: in ARCC's current position, the upside was very limited and the downside was quite sizable, so it became time to head for the sidelines.

    I'm now waiting for the dust to settle to determine whether to look for a re-entry point or to move on. Hope you'll continue sharing your thoughts.

    Cheers,
    Capt. Spaulding
    May 5, 2015. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2016 Could Be The Tipping Point For Full Marijuana With Big Tobacco Poised To Strike [View article]
    Good article, sound advice. Thanks.

    General question: does anyone know of companies that supply equipment for marijuana growers (greenhouses? hydroponics?) and would benefit from further legalization?

    Long: MO, PM, UVV
    Apr 30, 2015. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Has Ignored This Healthcare REIT, Maybe You Shouldn't [View article]
    Thank you for another remarkably good, well-balanced analysis. It's always worthwhile to read what you have to say.

    re NHI: not my cup of tea, at least at the present price. A key yellow flag for me: "Around 32% of NHI's revenues are generated from government funded reimbursement (one of the highest in the sector)." One of the investing adages I keep in mind is, "What Uncle Sam giveth, Uncle Sam taketh away."

    long: O, LXP, STWD
    Apr 27, 2015. 08:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retired Dividend Investors Are Deluded By Yield On Cost [View article]
    Thanks for the discussion of YOC. I've thought about that metric, and come to a couple of conclusions. First, it seems to be to be a backward looking metric that is very useful in gauging how a particular investment has done over a period of years, but provides little useful insight into how it will do in the future.

    Second, a high YOC can foster the kind of pat-yourself-on-the-back mindset that encourages the wrong kind of buy-and-hold thinking. By that I mean the "I've fallen in love with the stock" view that ignores unfavorable changes in fundamentals and/or valuations.

    Just sayin'....
    Apr 25, 2015. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Are Short Ares Capital [View article]
    "...there's always a Piper to pay."

    Indeed. And he often gets a high price.

    Thank you for the discussion of ARCC's situation. Much appreciated.
    Apr 23, 2015. 09:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: A Bull Case Rebuttal [View article]
    Some thoughts on BofA:

    First, there often is a sharp distinction between a good company and a good stock. BAC might well prove to be a good stock in the quarters ahead if it goes up a few points and post a nice percentage gain. But, in my opinion, BofA will never be a good company as long at the current management is in place. I believe that the term "incompetent" can reasonably be used to describe the management team. The term "corrupt" appears a few comments above this one; I wouldn't disagree.

    Second, I suspect that many of the favorable comments that appear on SA in response to articles that criticize BofA are planted; i.e., people in the company's investor relations department, or blind loyalists, may well monitor this site and try to counter the unfavorable comments that the current management team has so rightly earned. Such shilling would be completely in keeping with the company's style.
    Apr 22, 2015. 10:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE: Setting An Example [View article]
    My two cents:

    re GE: Immelt didn't take this path voluntarily, IMO. He was pushed/dragged along it by the terrible performance of GE's stock in recent years. Give him some credit, however, for eventually, if belatedly, making the correct decision.

    re BAC: Yes, they are "leaderless," as the author says. And, what's worse, they're clueless. There is a certain type of person who is so obtuse and incapable of learning that they don't even know they are incompetent (incompetent in the strict sense of the word, meaning "lack of the ability to do something well"). That type fills the management ranks of BAC.

    (I guess that's four cents.)
    Apr 13, 2015. 08:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Government And Corporate Indebtedness Provide Investment Opportunity [View article]
    Agreed. IPKW's liquidity risk is way too high for my taste, even though the rationale is attractive.

    disclosure: long PKW
    Apr 11, 2015. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buybacks Are Not Just An Accounting Trick [View article]
    A good article, yes, but some data would have been nice. Here are some. Note that all performance figures are through Feb. 27, 2015, the last day I updated this file.

    The S&P 500 Buyback Index tracks the performance of the top 100 stocks with the highest buyback ratios in the S&P 500. The Buyback Index has consistently done better than the broad market index over the past decade.

    S&P 500 Buyback Index

    YTD 2.6% 3.9%
    1 Year 15.1 19.3
    3-Year annl. Ret. 18.0 24.4
    5-Year annl. Ret. 16.2 21.1
    10-Year annl. Ret. 8.0 12.1
    Source: http://bit.ly/1CzaA0h

    S&P notes that the Buyback Index was launched at the end of November, 2012; data before that date were backtested. Since the index went “live,” it has outpaced the S&P 500 83.5% to 55.8%.

    That’s the overview. PowerShares Buyback Achievers ETF (PKW) is one way that investors have been able to participate in the remarkable outperformance that buyback stocks have achieved. Since its inception late in December, 2012, PKW’s price has advanced by about 100% vs. a gain of about 50% for the S&P 500.

    disclosure: long PKW
    Apr 9, 2015. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buybacks Are Not Just An Accounting Trick [View article]
    Good article, as far as it goes, but data would have been helpful. Here's some perspective on how investors have done when it comes to buybacks. Note that all of the figures below are through Feb. 27, 2015, the last time I updated them in the files I keep.

    The S&P 500 Buyback Index tracks the performance of the top 100 stocks with the highest buyback ratios in the S&P 500. The Buyback Index has consistently done better than the broad market index over the past decade.

    S&P 500 Vs. Buyback Index

    YTD (2/27/15) 2.6% 3.9%
    1 Year 15.1 19.3
    3-Year annl. Ret. 18.0 24.4
    5-Year annl. Ret. 16.2 21.1
    10-Year annl. Ret. 8.0 12.1
    Source: http://bit.ly/1CzaA0h

    S&P notes that the Buyback Index was launched at the end of November, 2012; data before that date were backtested. Since the index went “live,” it has outpaced the S&P 500 83.5% to 55.8%.

    That’s the overview. PowerShares Buyback Achievers ETF (PKW) is one way that investors have been able to participate in the remarkable outperformance that buyback stocks have achieved. Since its inception late in December, 2012, PKW’s price has advanced by about 100% vs. a gain of about 50% for the S&P 500.

    disclosure: long PKW
    Apr 9, 2015. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Top First Quarter Pick Took Off Without Me [View article]
    Grain of salt department: Haven't there been whispers that Goldman has been know to talk its book from time to time? Just sayin'....
    Apr 8, 2015. 09:10 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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284 Comments
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