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  • The Time To Buy SVXY Is Now, And Maybe Again Later [View article]
    Hello Salazro, do you think buying the XIV today can eventually be profitable (ie buy and hold), or do you need to wait for contango? It seems like you lose real buying power everyday in the XIV that it is in Backwardation.

    Thanks for your thoughts!
    Aug 30, 2015. 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Buy SVXY Is Now, And Maybe Again Later [View article]
    Jay, do you think buying the XIV today can be profitable, or do you need to wait for contango? It seems like you lose real buying power everyday in the XIV that it is in Backwardation.

    Thanks for your thoughts!
    Aug 30, 2015. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Buy SVXY Is Now, And Maybe Again Later [View article]
    The market turned down today at about 3:00 because there was a large ($4B remaining) sell order that needed to get filled by the end of the day. When the selling began then, bids dropped and MOMO-ALGOs kicked in making the close horrible. Technically all anyone can/will see is that the low approached monday's low -- so expect more selling tomorrow morning pre-open I would think. The reality is that you have many US based stocks not really impacted by China or that BENEFIT from low oil - becoming very cheap.
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chemours to cut titanium dioxide capacity [View news story]
    What is that sucking sound???

    There is a long way to go on reducing capacity. CC is taking leadership -- but between KRO, HUN, TROX, Cristal and the Chinese this certainly feels like a race to the bottom...
    Aug 20, 2015. 10:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dow Chemical's Stock Is An Excellent Long-Term Investment Opportunity [View article]
    Nice article. Note too that the CEO has said several times that starting with this coming Q through Q1 2016 the Sadara JV with Saudi Aramco will both Stop being a cash drain (capex and investment) and start being a cash contributor (revenues and profits in 3 different product lines).

    Re: your $55 PT vs. $60 -- I think once the stock moves through the Buffet preferreds at $53.72 -- the next stop is $60. Thoughts?
    Aug 8, 2015. 11:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Primo Water Earnings Preview: Topline Beat, EPS Meet [View article]
    why would you publish this 2hrs45 mins prior to earnings?
    Aug 4, 2015. 01:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tetragon Financial Group: It Won't Stay This Cheap Forever, 70% Upside To Fair Value [View article]
    Jeremy, what do you think the liklihood is that the manager sells the remaining portion of itself for stock to TFG (the Fund Group) at a discount to NAV?

    This transaction would be highly dilutive -- giving the TFG advisors extra millions in NAV -- but it would align them with shareholders.

    You should also point out that although these guys host an investor day, they are quite inaccessible and don't take live questions on their conference calls.
    Jul 23, 2015. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Running Primo Water Through A Filter [View article]
    What is the wide consumer behavior change you are referencing? My understanding is the Company took control of its own distribution system from DSS -- effectively retaining that distributor's Gross Margin. The consumer's behavior, ie, go to Walmart to buy clean water, hasn't changed.
    Jul 8, 2015. 06:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Running Primo Water Through A Filter [View article]
    This is not really a "short" piece as much as it is an opinion that PRMW is expensive. I think to appreciate what PRMW has in its future you have to a) appreciate how much GM the company is recapturing from bringing the DSS business in-house (potential to be arithmatically much bigger than they are talking about); b) Billy Prim's end-game. I wouldn't short this stock. Good chance at being in $9.00 range by 1q 2016.
    Jul 2, 2015. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Everybody Out Of The Pool! [View article]
    Thanks Author.

    Could you please elaborate on the VIE and DSO's element of your thesis. Has POOL experienced much bad debt?

    "The collection of these receivables would certainly not be easy and instead, the receivables are being financed for working capital. Pool Corp. "sells" (distributes) its products to its customers, mainly pool supply retailers, who buy POOL's products on credit, creating a receivable. POOL then monetizes the receivable when they are "pledged" to its 'credit facility' (a wholly-owned subsidiary), who then sells them to a third-party financial institution for cash. "
    May 30, 2015. 10:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Chemical: Betting On Continued Margin Enhancements [View article]
    Excellent statisticual analysis and I appreciate your investment process. I would like to know of other companies you find "excellent".

    I think the most important part of your conclusion is: "Had DOW been enjoying mid-teen operating profitability consistently over the last ten years, we would have perhaps been gung-ho on the stock's appeal as a long-term investment...." Management of Dow has been quite poor. Now that Steve Miller is in town, Dow has been flying right.

    Liveris will hopefully retire this year and watch out how the greatest chemical assets in the world will be able to be managed profitably!
    May 24, 2015. 09:15 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sealed In Debt [View article]
    This is a poorly researched article. There is no discussion of Sealed Air's 1) free cash flow, 2) amortization schedule, 3) recapitalization/stated reduction of interest expense or 4) stated plans to shrink it's float by up to 25%.

    Additionally, Sealed Air is not a stereotypical packaging company. Its brands have tangible value: most people have heard of "Bubble Wrap" and "Cryovac".

    The company derives over 20% of EBITDA from Diversey -- so clearly not a "typical packaging company." Regardless, management has stated quite clearly that they are going to hold net debt to EBITDA at 3.5x- 4.0x. They have also said that they will generate $600mm of fcf + $250mm from the tax refund, and will generate $600mm+ over each of the next two years. That fcf alone equates to over 20% of the market cap. Given the tangible tailwinds to the company's key revenue streams -- these targets look light.

    I guess the author here would prefer to invest in companies that don't take advantage of cheap money?
    Apr 8, 2015. 08:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kennametal Still 50% Overvalued Based On Risks [View article]
    What are your revenue assumptions behind your cash flows in your various assumptions?

    thanks.
    Mar 5, 2015. 11:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet The New NCT: CDO Recoveries, Golf And A 100%+ Upside Potential Over The Next 2 Years With A 10.6% Yield While You Wait [View article]
    what are your thoughts about the insider selling filing this mornnig?
    Mar 5, 2015. 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet The New NCT: CDO Recoveries, Golf And A 100%+ Upside Potential Over The Next 2 Years With A 10.6% Yield While You Wait [View article]
    What are your thoughts about the insider selling filing this morning?
    Mar 5, 2015. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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