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Carl Dincesen

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  • California: A Bigger Credit Risk Than Kazakhstan [View article]
    I said in my comment California reports to no one, I should have said public employee unions.
    Mar 2 06:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California: A Bigger Credit Risk Than Kazakhstan [View article]
    Greece reports to the European Union. California reports to no one.
    Mar 1 05:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Municipal Bonds: Time for a Closer Look [View article]
    E J Boyson
    Appreciate the complement.
    Mar 27 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Encouraging News on Subprime Mortgage Delinquency Roll Rates [View article]
    A glimmer of hope? If it changes your analysis, please post results from the full April 24 trustee/servicer reports. Recovery or loss severity rate is more than important and I don't whether or to what degree it correlates to dollar inflows and roll rates.
    May 23 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Housing: The Big Picture by the Numbers [View article]
    In reply to user Dilbert. Appreciate the comment. No doubt you know your local market, but what has and continues to be happening locally for you is not at odds with the parameters of median new home sale price declines in the West Region discussed in the above article. That is because the Price to Income Gap, being based on median home value in the Region, is itself a median Gap or middle value with half being higher and half being lower. The Gap, no doubt, varies in each State in the Region and more so within the hundreds of local real estate markets in the California.
    Apr 13 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Housing: The Big Picture by the Numbers [View article]
    In reply to user 169490, it is true that base year relationships can change results but not by statistically significant amounts over the long term because, in this case, the underlying compared values historically exhibit low and similar degrees of volatility in terms of year over year percent change. Importantly and to your point, base year 1976 and the years preceding and following it were unremarkable in all four Regions. I would be happy to share the data with you. Email cdincesen@insuredaaabo...
    Apr 3 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ambac, MBIA Are Still Shorts Amidst This Wink-and-Nod [View article]
    Some facts the "experts" miss: Ambac and MBIA insured bonds never in their history traded equal to natural triple A bonds. They always traded at double A levels in both the tax exempt and taxible markets, ask any trader. The holding companies have never been rated triple A. The stress case scenarios that the rating agencies use are in fact depression (1930's style) scenarios. Simple put, at any point in time a triple A financial guaranty insurer must have minimum capital equal to 100% of depression losses at a 99.9% probability with an extra 20-30% capital cushion thrown in for good measure. No one who understands the business has ever suggested that the insurer would necessarily maintain a triple A rating during or after a depression.

    Credit ratings are simply an informed opinion as to the likelihood of getting paid in full on time in a very stressed environment with triple A's the most likely survivors. Read the rating agency credit rating definitions, and then read the raters' rating methodologies for financial guarantee insurers. Default assumptions for categories of risk can change but the fundamental approach has remained the same for more than 30 years.

    The unprecedented speed and magnitude of home price declines in certain housing markets is a natural result of the unprecedented speed and magnitude of the immediately preceding price appreciation that was fueled in large part by the collapse of mortgage under writing standards beginning in 2004. Those depreciating markets are well on there way to reaching price levels consistent with current personal income levels which is and always has been the fundamental driver of residential real estate values. There will be blood but the patient will recover faster than many think unless we have a depression in which case I would rather be holding Ambac or MBIA insured debt than uninsured A rated debt. Is that not the fundamental reason why investors have been giving up a little yield in exchange for insurance protection during the last 34 years?
    Feb 28 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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