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Carl Dincesen

 
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  • An EU Solution For Both The Short And Long Term [View article]
    rtlayman
    Thanks for the thoughtful comment.
    You ask “the” question, what if a nation just walked away from its obligations to the finance authority. Stated another way, will investors’ readily accept that risk.
    The consequences of walking from a “supra” finance union obligation would be more severe than if a nation simply abrogated its debts. Severe and justified would include this piranha nation being shut out of European banking and trade system. With other countries joining in as well because that kind of action threatens the stability of the world’s largest economy, the EU.
    You are not just stiffing investors, but also the referee and league or union. All other members of the league will punish that team. They have agreed to not play with the offending team until it meets all of its obligations to the finance authority for debt issued on its behalf. Could an EU state turn into a North Korea? Yes, but what are the odds.
    Just as important is the fact that all member nations and investors come out ahead in the short and long term.
    A proposal like this in my opinion would have a positive impact on the value of the Euro and price of Greek, Spanish and Italian government bonds.
    No doubt, the rating agencies would slather the union’s finance authority bonds with triple-A ratings, in this rare case deserved.
    Probability is the measure of risk over time. Here is a link to a direct three-way comparison to Moody’s and S&P long-term credit rating definitions. I think another solution for a different but related problem is obvious here:
    http://bit.ly/MD9jNY
    Jun 22 09:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • California: A Bigger Credit Risk Than Kazakhstan [View article]
    Greece reports to the European Union. California reports to no one.
    Mar 1 05:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Follow The Income - Prognosis For New Single Family Home Prices By U.S. Region [View article]
    Dear Mr. Drunkard

    Your comment “It is about what you actually have to spend on a house. Not what your theoretical top line income is.”

    First, what you actually have to spend on a house is precisely the home sales price used in Chart One against whatever amount of personal income is available. Both series not adjusted for inflation.

    Second, why ever adjust for anything unless you must? By itself, it always adds inaccuracy to historical data.

    Other than that, I think you agree with me but don’t know it.
    Mar 14 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Detroit In Chapter 9: A Day Of Reckoning For Investors [View article]
    aretailguy

    Two thoughts, first GM is not a municipality and Detroit did not even try to include their $300 million or so in outstanding "secured" general obligation bonds in the filing. They are immune to adjustment under federal law. So, they have not thrown all rules out the window, apparently.

    I do agree with your observation of who is at fault. People who don't vote in all elections where eligible, particularly local and school board elections. I think the average Civil War conscript is better able to read and write than average American young adults today, if the letters they wrote home are any indication. And we site as Americans and do nothing.
    Jul 29 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An EU Solution For Both The Short And Long Term [View article]
    Sorry, meant "pariah" nation not piranha.
    Jun 23 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unemployment: History Suggests There's No Reason for Pessimism [View article]
    The only thing we know for sure about the future is history repeats itself.
    Aug 12 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing Municipal Bonds [View article]
    Jeffery,
    Intending to hold to maturity and that actually happening are two different things, but most are called or economically called prior to maturity.

    Before investing a large sum in a particular municipal bond issuer, I would still want to know the price offered was fair value for the risk assumed. Essentially, how far away or how unlikely is default in the foresee able future. You do not get that from public rating agency ratings or reading their rating reports.

    Thank you for bringing up the question. It’s an important point.

    Carl
    Jul 4 11:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing Municipal Bonds [View article]
    David,

    Bondsonline providing access to rating agency reports is a significant development. I believe Fitch was the first to do it via press release. But I am not sure you get all of the information all of the time and because the bond issuers pay for the rating, they are not truly independent.

    When I mentioned “independent expert credit advice,” I was referring to our company’s goal of bringing independent expert opinion to retail municipal bond investors. We are not there in terms of pricing yet, but are working on retail distribution through a brokerage firm.

    I agree 100%; borrower funded credit rating agencies are here to stay. Thanks for sharing your thoughts,
    Carl
    Jun 18 11:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Municipal Bonds: Woe Is Me [View article]
    Thank You
    Apr 25 05:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outlook for Municipal Bond Defaults – Settlement on Largest May Come Soon [View article]
    Reply to boyson

    Nearly all of the bonds carry insurance. I should have mentioned that. Some investors are being paid while some others are not depending on which insurer backed the bonds held.
    Insurance was necessary to induce providers of liquidity to stand behind the auctions as buyers of last resort. That obligation terminated when the bond insurers where downgraded.
    Oct 29 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Health Insurance Companies Part II: Can They Prosper in the Next Decade? [View article]
    I believe the power of capitalism is sufficient to withstand price regulation by the government when the service is essential and is delivered by the private sector.

    Narrow mined conservatives and liberals should look closely at the Japanese healthcare system. It's existence and success is a reality that proves both political points of view are based on false assumptions. As for elected officials, what's going on with them is, for the most part, ugly.
    Jun 24 09:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Health Insurance Companies Part I: The Game Is Ending [View article]
    That opinion is the problem because it is what most people think. Insurers are the paymasters of healthcare, who gets what and how much. Ask your self a simple question. Who has control?. It is not providers. There are only two places they can get paid, private insurance and the government funded insurance programs. Private insurance reimbursements are always more generous because insurers get cost plus on whatever spending turns out to be.

    You might need to put aside negative opinions about certain government actions to understand this. I have. Please read Part II and tell what you think about this.
    Jun 23 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Health Insurance Companies Part I: The Game Is Ending [View article]
    That's the problem because it is what most people think. Insurers are the paymasters of healthcare, who gets what and how much. Ask your self a simple question. Who has control?. It is not providers. There are only two places they can get paid, private insurance and the government funded insurance programs. Private insurance reimbursements are always more generous because insurers get cost plus on whatever spending turns out to be.

    You might need to put aside negative opinions about certain government actions to understand this. I have. Please read Part II and tell what you think about this.
    Jun 23 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Health Insurance Companies Part I: The Game Is Ending [View article]
    Can't argue with the second paragraph. Part II is out.
    Jun 23 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Health Insurance Companies Part I: The Game Is Ending [View article]
    I suppose that you could evaluate what a four percent margin would be worth on a stagnant or slow growth revenue base.

    State regulators limit margins, not spending, to 4%, give, or take 100 basis points. Appling that margin to the sum of reimbursements paid plus operating expenditures equals annual earnings.
    May 6 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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