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Carl Martin

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  • Record Oil Sands Production Should Propel Suncor To $40 By Year-End [View article]
    Well done, Michael.
    Sep 6 02:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exploding The Natural Gas Supply Myth: An Interview With Bill Powers [View article]
    CBASS,

    In support of your comment, for example, NG produced from the Bakken has been coming on line in such quantities, that it's actually moving the needle. I don't have any exact figures, but I've seen charts, where the percentage of Bakken NG can clearly be seen to always be increasing, relative to all US production. And, this situation isn't going to change anytime soon.
    Jul 22 03:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exploding The Natural Gas Supply Myth: An Interview With Bill Powers [View article]
    YIKES!

    Bill Powers and this author sure need to do a lot of homework on this subject.

    Can't believe that stuff like this is STILL being published at SA.

    I thought we were all over and done with this level of misunderstanding years ago.

    Please spend some time researching the comment flow from people like Fracjob and Craig Cooper.

    If you are on the opposite end of an argument with either of them, (let alone both) the odds are about 99.99% against you ever winning.

    I think this article should be withdrawn from SA, and published at TOD, instead. This is supposed to be an investment site.
    Jul 16 02:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett On Berkshire's Dividend Policy [View article]
    Briar,

    Thanks for the info. I'm a bit limited in my choices, as I don't have a US address, so I have to just make do with what I've got until further. But, saving money is well known to be the best way to make money. Even Ben Franklin knew that.
    Jul 14 02:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett On Berkshire's Dividend Policy [View article]
    Giorgiolb,

    I think you have a first class strategy there! You have most certainly thought through all the details. In comparison, I'm mostly just doing what comes easiest to me. But, the income I actually live off of comes from an entirely different source, anyway. So, for me investing is now just a fun game to play, but I used to have to make a living from it just by using my wits some years ago.

    I certainly agree with your viewpoint of dividend investing just being one of many tools in the arsenal. That is always how I have used it.
    Jul 14 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett On Berkshire's Dividend Policy [View article]
    Giorgiolb,

    Nice reply! Can't find here much to dispute, which means I'm mostly in agreement.

    One point to consider for those, who are (too) reliant upon income streams, is that perhaps they simply have too much of their money (cash) invested in the first place. Many people live their lives way beyond their own means. Some people apparently even invest beyond their own means. If these people simply sold some of their income streams, they wouldn't be in such need of them, because cash is (sometimes, anyway,) king.

    It's certainly worth noting that Buffet always keeps ENORMOUS piles of cash around, that also provide a very low rate of return, and thereby slow down the speed of his wealth creation. Except that, he uses this same excess cash to buy incredible value,...when the markets are way down!!!

    In his annual reports he has discussed why he thinks it's actually good, when the investments he makes decrease in value, because of stock market gyrations. Then he just buys more! It is very difficult for me to understand his thinking, but I am quite sure he is right, as usual..

    The whole trick is, (and my main point also is), to be invested for so long, that these black swan events have very little effect, as one becomes so far ahead of such minor matters. Selling at 50% under a recent high looks bad to you, because you are apparently assuming that one bought in at a higher price. What if one bought in at a price which was say 90% lower, than whatever the 50% drop results in? You would still be making a killing, just not as good a one, if you sold out at the top.

    One can also elect to go on margin (borrow money using the remains of your portfolio as collateral) during down markets, and just ride out the storm. Sometimes, it makes sense to also invest in down markets with said borrowed money.

    At present, I'm using considerable margin, and am pretty heavily invested in very high income investments. So, even though I have many non income paying investments like BRK, my total portfolio still yields almost 9%, but the portion that I actually own yields a whopping 17%, because of this compounded effect of the use of margin. But in order to get that I have to borrow money at 7.375%, which doesn't actually give me that much spread.

    But each month my portfolio earns more income, than the borrowing costs, so I'm slowly becoming the owner of the entire portfolio. At present I own about 40%, while Morgan Stanley owns the rest. This is of course very risky, but I have many years of experience playing this game.

    But at any rate, I seriously doubt that any of the nay sayers on this thread have any real understanding of how to use margin to greatly increase either their capital gains, or their income streams. Meanwhile, I do both, and at one and the same time! So, it seems that there are a lot more than just one investing game in town. Why not consider all possibilities?
    Jul 12 03:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett On Berkshire's Dividend Policy [View article]
    Giorgiolb,

    Even Warren agrees, that BRK's best years are behind it. Many thousands of investments are better than BRK, over relatively short time periods. But the question is which of these investments are better over the long term? History is on BRK's side, but of course past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    If you weren't around at the time of those articles, (pre October, 2008 crash) you will not likely understand the context in which they were written. My intention was not so much to encourage others to go long at that time, but rather to use that often misunderstood company to demonstrate to others how an amateur could analyze a company in such a way that other amateurs could also understand, and then hopefully apply that understanding to all other companies, they might have interest in. But, my timing couldn't have been much worse!

    My "doubling" strategy more than halved, and Warren's did considerably better. I don't have any current investing ideas, other than I think everyone should have at least a tiny position in BRK, just to get the Annual Reports, and to use BRK as a benchmark to compare everything else to.
    Jul 11 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett On Berkshire's Dividend Policy [View article]
    rashbaugh,

    Neither Buffet, nor me expect such growth to continue. The point is that when an investment has compounded itself so much as BRK has, then a measly $200 investment can earn up to $340,000 on an "average" year.

    Sorry folks, but investing is not about dividends. It's all about doubling time, and BRK simply has the best doubling time record in the history of this planet. Those of you who don't know what I'm talking about should try going to youtube.com and then write "Legend Of The Chessboard" into the suggestion box to learn the most valuable investing lesson you will ever learn.

    The only thing that really matters is how many times your money doubles, from the time of your investment to the time you actually need it. The trick is to invest over the longest possible time period at the highest rate of total return available. This technique has been known for thousands of years.

    Historically, that investment has always been BRK.
    Jul 8 03:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett On Berkshire's Dividend Policy [View article]
    rashbaugh,

    Thanks for the clarification. I'll just divide by 2 and 5 to get MY averages.

    My suspicion was merely that you probably weren't averaging. But, there's no problem there now.

    One thing I'm doing is looking at all this from the year 1965, and for someone who turns 65 today, and retires. If they had only worked at McDonalds for five weeks (200 hours) flipping burgers at the then minimum wage of $1.65/hour, and could somehow had saved $1.00/ hour to buy 10 shares of BRK@$20.00/share, they would presently be sitting on about $1,720,000 today, WITH ABSOLUTELY NO DIVIDENDS EVER PAID.

    Furthermore, all that money would be entrusted to a man, whom many consider to be the world's greatest investor, ever. And, each time the stock rises a mere 1%, you would then earn (on paper) $17,200. If it gave an AVERAGE Buffet sized return for the year, (about 20%), then a paper gain of $340,000 would be attained. If the value of that much stock was then sold merely to live off of each year, why may I ask would anyone ever need to have any income at all from dividends?

    That said, Buffet has given us all his very solemn promise, that BRK will NOT LIKELY be able to maintain such a pace of growth, but he still hopes to modestly outpace the S&P 500 over time.

    How about everyone simply entrusting SOME of their money to Buffet, and investing the rest in the dividend investments of YOUR choice.

    But, don't forget to compare the two results along the way.

    Meanwhile, I've gotta get back to my boring work. There's a lot of burgers that need flipping!
    Jul 5 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett On Berkshire's Dividend Policy [View article]
    rashbaugh,

    Your total returns look very suspicious to my trained eyes.

    What I was referring to were AVERAGE total returns.

    Can you clarify your numbers a bit better?
    Jul 4 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett On Berkshire's Dividend Policy [View article]
    May I suggest that the author (great article by the way) and all other commentators, either for or against BRK paying dividends, simply post their average total return in %'s, and also the number of years that average is based upon, under their comment.

    Then, I'll know for sure which comments are worth reading, and which aren't. As BRK's average total return is close to 20% over almost 48 years, I wonder if anyone commenting here is actually doing better than that?

    I'm certainly not, and I'm also too embarrassed to publish my own stats, so I guess I'll just keep pumping more of my own money into BRK, regardless of whether dividends are being paid, or not. Seems like a no brainer to me.
    Jul 3 09:52 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Well In Western Williams County Produces 6-Month Payback [View article]
    HMMM.....It looks like proprietary fibers are now in the proppant mix to open up better flow channels. Smart, indeed.
    Jun 26 02:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bakken Is Screaming With Takeover Targets [View article]
    Agreed. The author apparently needs to do his homework on this play before recommending it so highly. This is just some re-cycling of old, tired news combined with some rather sensational, but dubious comparisons to the ND Bakken. The unfortunate fact remains that no company has figured out how to crack the code in the Montana Bakken Fairway, as yet. But, there are some very large amounts of oil there just awaiting.....Risk anyone?
    Apr 29 07:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Rate Of Growth In U.S. Oil Production Is Going To Slow Significantly [View article]
    FROM BLOOMBERG:
    Oil production in Texas’s Eagle Ford shale formation reached an all-time high in February as it climbed 74 percent compared with a year earlier.

    The nine geographic fields that make up the majority of Eagle Ford yielded 471,258 barrels of crude a day in February, according to preliminary data released by the Texas Railroad Commission, which oversees oil and gas drilling in the state. In February 2012, the fields produced 271,521 barrels daily.

    Commission production totals typically increase in subsequent months as the state receives revised, corrected or late reports. January output was revised to 462,160 barrels a day from the preliminary report of 373,303.

    Production of condensates, or natural gas liquids, was 89,217 barrels a day in February, down from 117,789 a year earlier, as drillers moved away from less profitable gas.

    Production of natural gas was 1.79 billion cubic feet a day, compared with 1.87 billion the year before.

    So, when is the rate of growth of US shale oil production supposed to be slowing significantly?
    Apr 24 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Rate Of Growth In U.S. Oil Production Is Going To Slow Significantly [View article]
    Freddy,

    If you say that the peak is not expected until 2021, would you mind putting out some other numbers to back up your prediction, such as total # of wells, daily rate of production, average production per well, and the cumulative amount of oil produced up to the date of the peak.
    Apr 21 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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