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Carl Martin

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  • Continental Resources' Recent Share Price Dip Creates A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Gee, Companies can no longer make money by reducing the profit per unit, and greatly increasing the number of units at the same time?

    I guess all the books on economics will have to be re-written.
    Oct 17, 2014. 06:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: What Happened To The Backwardation? [View article]

    The short answer is that the demand doesn't come unless the price falls. Therefore, the price of oil falls to both discourage still more (over) production, and to also encourage more demand at the new lower price.

    Economics 101.
    Oct 17, 2014. 06:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil & Gas Stocks: How Far Are We In This Correction? [View article]
    Deep Time,

    Time for some Deep and much needed education on useless fears.
    Oct 12, 2014. 02:43 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Continental Resources: The Big Promise Of The Anadarko Basin [View article]

    As you mentioned critical thinking, I suppose this video is mostly meant for you, but I'm sure many others could benefit from viewing it as well.

    And, just for the record.... CC is probably the clearest critical thinker I've ever encountered, and that's saying quite a lot. Be careful out there!
    Sep 19, 2014. 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroshale: Junior Oil Play With Big Potential [View article]
    I actually wouldn't mind being in myself.....provided I got in way ahead of the pack, and....would be able to get out in time. They definitely have some not merely good, but great, people involved, and (apparently) decent land positions, so things might turn out okay. But, I wouldn't sell out here....just wouldn't buy in either.

    About three and a half years ago, NOG was trading at about $35. Now it's at about $16. What happened? Apparently, they talked a good game until reality caught up with them. HMMM......

    KOG, a real producer, certainly did a lot better over that same time period.

    Sep 9, 2014. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroshale: Junior Oil Play With Big Potential [View article]
    There are many good things about this company, but as a non operator they still carry considerable risk, because they don't really have control of their own operations. It might help if the names, locations, 30 day IP rates, and operators of their wells, etc were also revealed, so we can have a look at what's there, and what's not there.

    I have no reason to believe that the author has much understanding of the decline rates of shale wells. As the (first) one month decline rate (legacy decline) of all Bakken wells taken together is presently about 7%, I don't believe this company's wells will be much different. Also there were at last count no less than 585 Bakken wells waiting to be completed. At 200 wells/month that's about a three month delay. You can expect almost a 20% decline in oil production over the (first) three months, and that's difficult to gain back and surpass with a few newly added wells. There was also no mention of how large their drilling inventory actually is. Most KOG like companies have 5-10 years of drilling inventory lined up.
    Sep 8, 2014. 02:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Petroshale: Junior Oil Play With Big Potential [View article]
    Author STILL doesn't get it!

    bob1058 correctly pointed out that a Bakken apple in 2014, doesn't rate being compared to an Bakken orange in 2008.

    Author did not disprove Bob's assertion.

    Try comparing it to NOG. Then (maybe) people will take you seriously.

    Wise investors should consider this company to be just another until it's proven to be otherwise.
    Sep 6, 2014. 01:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Oil Production Keeps Surging, So Why Haven't Oil And Gasoline Prices Fallen? [View article]
    "Naturally, the producers will first choose the easiest, cheapest supply to work on, as it offers the most profit and pleases the shareholders."


    And, all along I thought everything was driven by economics, and if oil companies didn't drill enough oil wells soon enough on the lands they lease, then they would lose the lease.

    So, when did this lease-less reality, that you speak of come into being?

    I hope you have properly informed all the ignorant oil companies of YOUR new oil field development strategy, because none of them have heard about it yet.

    Gee, you must get all your oil ideas from those two websites. Good luck dealing with reality when it someday comes your way. You sure won't be ready for it.

    As the author is one of the biggest oil bulls out there, I don't think you quite got the drift of his article. Try reading some of his other articles.
    Aug 16, 2014. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Strategy And Many New Catalysts Make Consol Energy A Buy [View article]
    Great article, David!

    You have completely dissected a very difficult company to evaluate and understand. This company is probably way below most investor's radar, as it is still remembered as a losing energy company located in the wrong sector, coal. Just what you have portrayed here is rather amazing in my opinion, but I believe that if the past is any indication of the future, then there's still a lot more good news to come. They certainly have come up with an excellent strategy for dealing with all the uncertainties of the present day energy situation, and have made some very noteworthy acquisitions, that seem destined to reward them greatly. I am especially interested in their oil possibilities, although they will likely need to make more and better moves in the few oil specific areas still available. I expect to see some smart bolt on oil acquisitions in the near future. But, if not, this company still has a long way to run, anyway. I think they are playing their hand very well. My original long term losing investment in coal has already turned out to be a long term winner in energy. This is truly a great turn around play. I think smart investors should consider starting a position in this stock at the present price. Investing doesn't get much easier than this. It's a no brainer at this point. Again, thanks for the article!
    Jul 20, 2014. 02:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting's Buy Shows How The Bakken Is Changing [View article]
    Thanks Bill,

    Very interesting, possibly intriguing. The possibility that Statoil might put in a bid makes good sense to me. They would certainly have the clout to pull it off. I don't think WLL would want to take them on in a bidding match. Could get too expensive too quickly. We'll see what happens.
    Jul 20, 2014. 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting's Buy Shows How The Bakken Is Changing [View article]
    It all reminds me of when Brigham sold out to Statoil. Methinks, that reality was getting more and more difficult to deal with. That said, I think they did about the best job they could with their set of circumstances.
    Jul 17, 2014. 12:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting's Buy Shows How The Bakken Is Changing [View article]
    Just curious, Bill. Who and why?

    Your thoughts usually provide the rest of with some valuable insights.
    Jul 17, 2014. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happened To 'Peak Oil'? [View article]
    Nice article. Too bad, I can't say the same about half of the comments posted, but I suppose everyone has a need to sound off on something/anything.

    Just wondering about this sentence, though.

    "Once again, it appears that economists who cautioned that we should trust in human greed to respond to higher prices with more aggressive and creative production techniques have been proven correct."

    Since when did human intelligence get degraded to greed, and by exactly whom?

    Milton Friedmon once noted that greed was something everyone else always semmed to have. HMMMM.....

    Also this sentence seems a bit odd to me.

    "Shale fracking is expensive and tar sands production is very expensive".

    Expensive compared to what? Saudi oil? Yes. Yesterday's oil? Yes. Most conventional oil these days? Not really. Alternatives? Nope!

    But, otherwise a good article. Look how angry it made certain people. That's your proof!

    Remember: Anger is just the flip side of a coin called fear, and fear is ALWAYS based upon ignorance. Correct knowledge must be very scary. End of story.
    Jul 8, 2014. 02:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Shale Oil Miracle Disappears [View article]
    HMMMM.......The 2/3's of shale oil that just "disappeared" comes from information nearly three years old.... July, 2011, and that's ancient history for shale oil. Sorry everybody, but this is merely the shale oil non-event of this century. (Yawn). Back to making money from companies that actually produce shale oil from proven plays, and it's not very difficult finding them.
    May 27, 2014. 12:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale Oil Stocks - Time To Reassess [View article]
    Just wondering what happens to the author's thesis, if or when, the entire industry eventually adopts the best practices of EOG and starts using their basic well design with 1 mile laterals (for example in the Bakken) instead of the 2 mile laterals model as proposed and presently practiced by CLR. Seems to me that the number of potential drilling locations would simply double overnight. Perhaps, the number of potential drilling locations a given company has, is quite simply not so important as the author thinks they are.

    While this was obviously a very well written, researched, and informative article, I think it's just one more shale oil article written by someone, who either cannot or will not see the larger picture. Most of these US shale oil plays are stacked, and exactly NONE of them have ever been completely delineated on all levels. So, the remaining unanswered question certainly must be,.... Exactly how many drilling locations remain on all the un-delineated levels? I noticed the author did not address this issue.

    He is thereby recommending others to sell an asset, that he doesn't know the potential value of himself,... only that he thinks the value will likely be less, as opposed to more sometime in the future. While it might not be wise to buy at these levels with that kind of information, why not just hold instead?

    The author also failed to mention that these same companies can still buy cheap leases on the dozen or so other up and coming US shale plays,....if THEY think they actually lack enough future drilling locations.
    Apr 28, 2014. 03:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment