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Carl Martin  

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  • U.S. Oil Production Has Started Its Decline [View article]
    " It may also be the time to tip toe into smaller companies with strong balance sheets."

    Really???

    The best time to invest in most smaller oil companies with either strong or weak balance sheets was back in mid December, 2014.

    Many of these are up way over 100%, already.
    Apr 24, 2015. 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: Investors Rewarding Oil Companies With Strong Balance Sheets [View article]
    I have always found it very interesting, when certain parties constantly feel the need to put some kind of adjective or another in front of the word correct. I can remember way back to about 1st grade when my teacher simply referred to my math answers as being either correct or incorrect.

    The concept of social correctness certainly reminds me a lot of Nazi Germany in the '30's.

    Here's a interesting look into the origins of political correctness. http://bit.ly/1J7hqCX
    Apr 21, 2015. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hedge Bomb - Why Hedging Will Not Save Shale Oil [View article]
    Pedro,

    I have recently come to the same conclusion regarding your last two paragraphs. I think you are wise to wait until the SEC report comes out. You are obviously much more deeply involved in all this, than I will probably ever be. I agree that AR is perhaps not a good example after all, because of the recent and ongoing, (and possibly expected future) downward pressure on NG prices, that you mention. To properly compare to shale oil stocks without getting into an apples to oranges dilemma, I suppose we would have to wait until NG's price trajectory is more aligned to the recent oil price trajectory.
    Apr 19, 2015. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eclipse Resources: Giving The People What They Want [View article]
    Not that I doubt it, but why do you think it is so closely linked?

    I am otherwise a buy and hold type guy, and I'm just looking around in that play for some good possibilities. So, I've just been buying whatever has the best/worst chart (having studied them all quite a lot first) as funds slowly come available to me on a month by month basis. I have owned CNX going back many years because of it's coal interests, and have recently picked up AR, COG, and CHK, all near their recent lows. But, chose ECA as my last investment, just cuz of the low chart, and a PE of 2.35. GAWD! But, I'll have some available funds again early next week, and so far ECR beats anything else I have on my radar, hands down.

    I would appreciate any last minute suggestions you may have, and would be glad to hear your take on who might have some of the best above ground facilities and pipelines right now, or in the near future. The only company I don't like is MHR.
    Apr 18, 2015. 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halcon Resources - Economics Of A Shale Well [View article]
    Michael,

    I suppose that I forgot to tell you that I'm a bit of a map freak, and look at all the company maps of all the shale plays all the time. Some of the companies are posting maps that show the whole lease ownership of the play, color coded for each company's land position, as well as marked off core areas. But, each company uses it's own self made maps, that make it's position look better, than it actually is. That's why I have to view ALL the different maps, before I can decide anything.

    Perhaps, I'm just a wee bit closed minded, but personally I don't think much of the mind of Art Berman at all. My main geology teacher once worked in the same company as him. He says, that even way back then, Art's politics got in the way of everything he was saying and doing. His agenda is clearly PO, not science. That's what I can't handle. Geology is supposed to be a science, not a political agenda. My feelings are no different towards oil bulls with a typical right wing slant, who can't see or admit some of the obvious failings of the industry and some of it's rather colorful participants from time to time. Personally, I have never found the truth of anything hard to take.
    Apr 18, 2015. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How ConocoPhillips' Eagle Ford Operations Will Survive $56 WTI [View article]
    Well said, and done, Callum!
    Apr 18, 2015. 02:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How ConocoPhillips' Eagle Ford Operations Will Survive $56 WTI [View article]
    Callum,

    I certainly hear you on that one. Stock prices are neither reflecting the current or possibly even the near term upside in my opinion. They seem to be dead set on being way out in front of the curve. Even the slightest possible good news on oil prices causes all the stocks to jump dys-proportionally. That said, I'm the last guy in the world to be complaining.

    I think it must be getting pushed by retail investors afraid of missing out on what eventually will be a huge, and hopefully deserved, rise in stock values sometime way down the line.

    Yes, COP is looking better and better. Can't think of any other stocks I can say that about.
    Apr 18, 2015. 02:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hedge Bomb - Why Hedging Will Not Save Shale Oil [View article]
    Pedro,

    For what ever it's worth, (probably not much) I can no longer follow your line of thinking. But, everything that "8596381" said rings true to the (limited) workings of my mind on this subject.

    Can I get you to comment, or write an article, on the 1st quarter report from AR? They are the "King of Hedging" for NG, and are probably even more hedged than PXD, which I believe is the most (best?) hedged shale oil stock. The market at least agrees with me.

    But, AR is making some very clear statements about how much they made on their hedges, as well as their derivatives for the 1st quarter, 2015, and also why/how. I think you need to explain their results away in order to prove the credibility of your article. I still don't think that you are seeing all this clearly.
    Apr 18, 2015. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hedge Bomb - Why Hedging Will Not Save Shale Oil [View article]
    Pedro,

    I guess my instincts were right about your general agreement with PO expected outcomes. However, I can clearly see a certain amount of moderation and openmindedness with your thinking in regards to the exact timing of PO's eventual arrival. That's rather unusual for a believer in PO, as extremism is usually the norm for that group.

    Just curious, but what do you think will be the cause of shale oil's demise? I concede that all good things must come to an end someday, but when CLR has estimated the recoverable reserves of the Bakken to be somewhere between 62 and 96 billion boe, and PXD has estimated 75 billion boe recoverable reserves for the Permian, it seems to me like the party has quite a few more years, (decades) to go.

    Yes, I realize these estimates are only estimates and that they were made when oil was $100, but I believe they both used an oil price of $80 in their calculations. It doesn't really matter anyway. Technology has marched onward since then, so the show will keep going on no matter what.

    But, I think you should consider the fact that if the Bakken is producing at 1 million bpd (oil only) it will take about 2.75 years to produce 1 billion barrels of oil. See if you can figure out how many years (decades) production will last at those levels of production. Conversely, and this presently has more relevance for the Permian, if an oil field produces at 2.75 million bpd, it will still take a whole year to produce 1 billion barrels of oil.

    So how many years (decades) do you think PXD expects the Permian to be producing at that rate of production? Or try applying it to the Bakken. Planned takeaway capacity there is presently still at about 3 million bpd. Then add in all the other shale plays. How can you possibly come up with only a few years? Just askin'.
    Apr 18, 2015. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: Investors Rewarding Oil Companies With Strong Balance Sheets [View article]
    Well said!
    Apr 18, 2015. 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: Investors Rewarding Oil Companies With Strong Balance Sheets [View article]
    Matthew,

    I realize, that it is probably not your words, and you are probably just quoting someone else, but exactly what is supposed to be meant by "socially correct".

    Is this just another way of saying politically correct?
    Apr 17, 2015. 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eclipse Resources: Giving The People What They Want [View article]
    I've been looking pretty closely at this one lately, because they have the best/worst chart of all the eastern gas plays. Why do you think it's having such difficulties getting off it's lows? Otherwise, it looks set to pop someday soon. The lack of positive cash flow concerns me, but I suppose that just goes with the territory of being such a fast moving start up.
    Apr 17, 2015. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How ConocoPhillips' Eagle Ford Operations Will Survive $56 WTI [View article]
    Esekla,

    I think you are making some good points about future oil prices. The markets certainly seem to be pricing in higher oil prices, then I can readily see. A solid $60 by year end, getting to a solid $70 a year later, is much more easily justified. Being fully invested, I'm all for higher oil prices, but so far no one has a presented a believable scenario for it. But, there sure seems to be a lot of wishful thinking out there.
    Apr 17, 2015. 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Halcon Resources - Economics Of A Shale Well [View article]
    Michael,

    I think the following comment of yours is a bit odd, for someone claiming the experience you are claiming.

    "That doesn't really work when analyzing emerging plays. CHK's Utica position is massive, yet they somehow missed the best spots. So based on your method of analysis they'd be the best stock to own if you were looking for a Utica player to invest in. The thing is they decidedly are NOT the best one in the play, which you wouldn't know simply by looking at their maps and well locations. "

    You are arguing here, that bigger is better. Yet, I am arguing that it is the LOCATION of their land position, relative to the best parts of any given play, that is the determining factor. Please explain exactly why you think I can't/didn't determine that CHK does not have the best land position, simply by looking at all the available maps at all the company's websites, because the simple fact is that I did.

    They have a huge land position, but it is mostly too far to the north and west of the best parts. They are sitting on a lot of oil, but I believe it lacks the underlying gas to provide the necessary pressure to get it all out. But we will someday see. They are in no rush to do much about it.

    You are free to read as many of my comments as you like, THEN..... make your judgment. But, I think you should consider what I am up against in a forum like this. There are many people pushing Peak Oil here, even though it is supposed to be an investment site, and I am a very well known and formidable opponent of the PO crowd.

    If you can't take the heat, you can always just choose to stay out of the kitchen. As I am only interested in the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth, anyone who chooses to argue with me might need to do some serious explaining about what their interests here actually are.
    Apr 17, 2015. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halcon Resources - Economics Of A Shale Well [View article]
    Bettheranch,

    FYI.... The exchange Fracjob is referring to was when I was continually arguing, and correctly, that a fall in capex (and/or rig count) did not necessarily directly result in a lessening of production. At the time (apparently) I was the only one aware of that rather simple fact.
    Apr 17, 2015. 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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