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Carl Martin

 
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  • Invest In The Wattenberg With PDC Energy: Longer Laterals, More Frac Stages, And Downspacing [View article]
    Callum,

    I don't accept your answer, but you have written a good article, even though.

    I'm not talking about downspacing. I'm talking about how a 9,000 foot lateral can possibly fit on 640 acre spacing. You still haven't addressed this issue.

    CLR is currently developing a 32 well system (Antelope) on a 1,280 acre section in the Bakken, but that is on four different levels, so the spacing is really only 160 acre spacing/zone (level). The 32 laterals will likely all be about 10,000 feet long, as that takes the full advantage of the 1280 acre spacing units. This cannot be done on 640 acre sections, because of the length of the laterals.
    Dec 18, 2014. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Continental Resources Cannot Grow At 25% With Oil At $65 [View article]
    PP,

    "overall production dynamics and decline curves do not change significantly across the entire portfolio of company's wells."

    You still don't get it!

    As CLR is well known to be a proxy for the entire ND Bakken, you are indirectly stating that, overall production dynamics and decline curves do not change significantly across the entire Bakken.

    And there, you couldn't be more wrong.

    It's simple. You cannot correctly analyze shale oil companies with the tools and mentality you are using. You have to understand the geology and technology used also.

    It is, however, quite possible that CLR cannot grow 25% with oil at $65.....with their present plan "B". If so, they will merely shift to plan "C".

    They have so many options, they can practically do anything they want as long as the oil price is above, say $50.

    But, in order or you to agree with that, you would have to know something about oil geology in shale formations, and what technology is used to get it out, and at what price. They use completely different technologies in different areas of the same play, which mostly depend upon the expected EURs of the wells being drilled. An expected low EUR well in a marginal area, often just a lease holding well, would NEVER be drilled with expensive technology like coiled tubing, because it's just not worth it, even at $100 oil.

    With an oil price at $65, (or lower) they would stop all low grading, and they would focus on the more profitable high grading instead. That maneuver can greatly increase production, even using fewer wells, and your models do not account for this.

    You are also STILL assuming that capex = production. It doesn't.
    Dec 17, 2014. 02:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Invest In The Wattenberg With PDC Energy: Longer Laterals, More Frac Stages, And Downspacing [View article]
    I'm curious about your use of the term (drilling) section, as being just 640 acres, or one square mile, when you are simultaneously talking about longer laterals up to 9,000 feet.

    In the ND Bakken for example (different state, of course) DSU's are two 640 acre sections taken together, or an area of 1X2 miles to accommodate their 10,000 foot laterals.
    Dec 17, 2014. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: EOG Antelope Well Has One-Year Payback At $50/Bbl WTI [View article]
    Wow! Over 40 now? Just kidding. I should probably admit right here, that I recently hit 65, so I'm actually retired, a senior citizen, but it don't quite feel that way at all. I used to coach football too. Just wondering what your positions were? Also, are you actually native to ND? I think I keep hearing a California accent, or something.

    When the markets stabilize, I'd like to talk more with you about oil, again. Not much sense in doing it now.
    Dec 15, 2014. 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Markets: Sentiment And Lame Thinking Are Currently In The Driver's Seat [View article]
    RSO55,

    In regards to your comment about zero meaningful production after 2 years for shale oil wells. Not correct.

    It is generally accepted that about half the oil is produced by year 5-6, the rest comes in ever diminishing quantities over the next 20-40 years (as modeled). The greater the EUR of the well, the longer it will likely produce.

    Try viewing a few investor presentations, then you will likely see the light. That is where most of us have learned what we know, along with reading articles at SA.

    Regards
    Dec 12, 2014. 01:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Continental Resources Cannot Grow At 25% With Oil At $65 [View article]
    PP,

    Would you mind backing this assertion up with some actual facts?

    "Bear in mind that lower 2015 capex will result in lower 2016 production".....

    Sorry, but there is no known correlation between any given lower capex, for any given Company, at any given time, and future EXPECTED production.

    An easy example: If CLR cancelled three new very low EUR wells @ 250,000 boe per well, (typically lease holding wells in very marginal areas, which they actually have a lot of), and instead drilled one high EUR well @800,000 boe, or higher, (they have a lot of these, also) that would result in lower capex, yet higher production.

    Now, just ramp up those numbers to the number of wells YOU think CLR is going to drill in 2015, and let us all know, what you come up with.

    By the way, how do you know how many wells they plan to drill, where they plan to drill them, what their likely EURs/well are going to be, etc as compared to what they would have otherwise done at $100 oil?

    But, most important of all, I would like to know what % of their wells drilled in 2015, (or 2016, if you like), are going to be drilled (fracked) with coiled tubing, as compared to 2014, the year of comparison?

    I might also ask you how you are planning to compare apples to oranges, but I think I'd rather just ask you what you think the likely gains in EUR are using coiled tubing, as compared to any other method of your choice.

    CLR plans to weather this crisis just like any other shale oil company in any previous crisis,..... through a combination of their understanding of oil geology and the LATEST technology. What else? Money is just what greases the wheels of their operations. Not to worry.

    You can't hit a moving target by aiming at one that is standing still.

    Dec 12, 2014. 12:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: EOG Antelope Well Has One-Year Payback At $50/Bbl WTI [View article]
    Michael,

    Quite an experience seeing you live on TV! Actually it was very awesome! You come across as being really strong, very clear, and are so calm, people who don't even know you, or your background, will likely trust in what you are saying. You made some real good points about different economics in different areas, even when sometimes they are so geographically close.

    I think the biggest mistake being made out there is talking about some magic average break even price for all the various shale plays taken together, then the average company, then the average well in some play, never what's actually going on within any given company or specific area of a play. Again, great job, and expect to start getting famous pretty quickly. Just trust me on that. You've got what it takes, believe me.

    By the by.... Do you happen to pump a lot of iron or something? It sure looks that way. How about sports? What do you do, or what have you done?
    Dec 12, 2014. 11:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can EOG Resources Grow At 25% With Oil At $65? [View article]
    I agree, but just wonder why no one is considering the likely 1001(?) other oil producing entities in their equations? Obviously, the big stare down is between Saudi Arabia and Saudi America over the word Saudi, but the whole oil producing world is caught in the cross fire as well. And how about the possibility of closet shut downs, that are kept hidden as long as possible? At the end of the day, it is the highest cost producers, that should shut down, now that oil markets are again "free" markets. I'm amazed at how high an oil price many so called market pundits think will cause the shale industry to completely capitulate. Perhaps, the Saudis, themselves, miscalculated, or simply don't know, and just want to find out?
    Dec 11, 2014. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Eagle Ford Advantage: Location, Infrastructure, And Low F&D Costs [View article]
    Craig,

    I don't care what the EIA or USGS thinks.

    LOL

    I just want to hear what YOU think.

    You are, after all, still my geology teacher.
    Dec 11, 2014. 12:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Eagle Ford Advantage: Location, Infrastructure, And Low F&D Costs [View article]
    You're da author. You get to jump in for free.

    I would agree with Michael here.... if the capex reduction is large enough.

    But, what likely happens here is that the larger companies with the better land positions, (like COP) will be forced by economics, not merely by free choice, to drill the perspective higher EUR areas first. (high grading) That can outweigh any cutbacks in drilling activities, but there is no guarantee of that. It seems to depend entirely upon how large the collective capex reduction is for all the players involved. We don't know that yet.
    Dec 11, 2014. 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Prices Will Rise Based On Fundamentals And Geopolitics [View article]
    In this video you can view how computer modeled CO2 global warming feedback loops, directly correspond to expected payouts from Washington.

    LOL

    Actually it's well worth viewing. What the whole so called climate debate is actually about is very clearly and concisely explained, and should be easily understandable by all. There really is no need to argue anymore about global warming, if you invest 12 (actually 13) minutes of your valuable time here.

    http://bit.ly/1urZwPS
    Dec 11, 2014. 12:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Prices Will Rise Based On Fundamentals And Geopolitics [View article]
    Harold Hamm, CEO of CLR, has stated that no operating shale wells will ever be shut down by this market turmoil. It is because of the very high decline rates of shale oil wells. The shut down occurs naturally and rather quickly if/when they stop drilling/completing wells. The Bakken presently has over 600 wells backed up and awaiting completion. That will take 3 months to work off, even with a moratorium on drilling, and would have exactly zero effect on Bakken production until 3 months had gone by. They are still drilling all out. Someone else has to blink. It won't be the shale companies. This is not breaking news.
    Dec 11, 2014. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Prices Will Rise Based On Fundamentals And Geopolitics [View article]
    Ernie Mac,

    My comment is meant in direct relationship to this sentence in Jennifer's ORIGINAL article, which has apparently simply been deleted with no further explanation by the author. I maintain that this once was the most important sentence in her entire article.

    ""With some drillers slowing production down, supply excesses will be QUICKLY evaporated and prices will rise."

    If you think there is a lag regarding production, then why are you telling me? Why not Jennifer? She is the one who (apparently) doesn't know this.

    I would not be greatly surprised to see declines next spring, or even earlier, but oil price declines can also mean INCREASES in production in US shale plays, because companies are now forced by economics to only drill their most productive areas. The well count can actually go way down with oil production still going up.

    Keep in mind that all future production increases that oil companies talked about with $100 oil, were all future looking statements, and thereby subject to change. When a company downgrades it's future production increase GUIDANCE from, say, 25% to 15%, that is a 40% decrease in guidance, but it's still a 15% (expected) increase in oil production.

    Sorry, but the idea that actual shale oil production is going to decrease anytime soon, even next spring or summer, is very dubious at best. And, I've spent thousands of hours studying shale oil extraction over the past 5-10 years.
    Dec 11, 2014. 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Prices Will Rise Based On Fundamentals And Geopolitics [View article]
    Latest weekly EIA statistics for the week up to and including Friday Dec,5th.

    9,118,000 barrels, up from 9,083,000 the week before for a gain of 35,000 barrels.

    Doesn't look like US oil production is at all impacted as yet.
    Dec 10, 2014. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Eagle Ford Advantage: Location, Infrastructure, And Low F&D Costs [View article]
    I don't usually respond to political items at SA, but I do suggest that all interested parties try to locate this recent legislation and read up on it. It basically is giving Obama the green light to declare war, (yes, declare war) and instantly with Russia without going through Congress at all. All the other Nato countries are expected to do the same thing too. There has been a general news blackout on this item. Doesn't sound too good to me, but it might be necessary to do. Yes, the world situation is THAT bad.
    Dec 10, 2014. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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