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Carl Martin  

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  • The 'Oil Supply Glut' Appears To Be A Myth [View article]
    " That is a 42% reduction compared to the previous estimate. This provides evidence that U.S. oil production will not be growing as quickly as many believed thus casting doubt upon the length of and extent of the oil supply glut."

    Okay, estimates are now considered to be evidence? YIKES!

    Author needs to explain how WTIC prices can possibly be at about $53 the past few days, if his article is to be considered to be correct.

    It's hardly a glut, but there has been a consistent over supply of oil on the market for quite some time now. Why else would oil be at about $53?
    Jul 15, 2015. 03:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Emerald Completes 90 Stage Frac In Stark County [View article]
    Michael,

    Great article, and even better comments. But, I was wondering why you referred to decline rates as depletion in the article? I think this can be very confusing for some people. Perhaps, you could explain the difference here.

    Also, I would like to point out to the readers that, EOX's claim that their 122,000 net acres is in the CORE of the Williston Basin is blatantly false, as Michael's many articles on the Bakken can attest for. Their land position is way too far to the West and South. Most companies at least cover their backsides by putting their "core" claims in quotes. I would not invest in this company for that one reason, alone.

    Good luck everyone.
    Jul 9, 2015. 02:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale Producers Can't Make Money At An Oil Price Of $60 [View article]
    "However, the rise of shale oil began around 2010 and much in the way drilling and fracking is done has changed since them. So there are no long-term data (more than 5 years) available and the fifth year-decline of a well drilled in 2010 may not be relevant at all for a well drilled in 2015."

    Much of the information used to determine COMPUTER MODELS of various shale oil EUR type curves stems all the way back to the very first shale GAS wells, which has since been followed up by all information available from shale oil wells, which also goes a lot further back than 2010. There is far more "long term" data available out there, then the author is aware of. Ignorance (not knowing) of something is certainly no proof, that it doesn't exist, or worse yet, that it is somehow wrong, or dishonest.

    We have seen many articles such as this one at SA over the past five years.

    The author has not taken a computer model of a high EUR well extended over it's expected lifetime of at least 30 years, and proven that this is impossible to achieve.

    The author would be well advised to read some of Michael Filloon's articles here at SA on the actual results, well run shale oil companies are getting these days to see if they are profitable or not.

    PS: This article can always be withdrawn.
    Jul 9, 2015. 01:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting Petroleum Is A Smart Bet In An Uncertain Oil Pricing Environment [View article]
    sparky,

    It is also possible, that they have very recently just started up with fracking again,.....unless you are 100% sure, that they always have been doing some fracking over the last six months, or so.
    Jun 20, 2015. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Barrett Corp.'s Bold Move - Doubling Down On XRL Niobrara Wells [View article]
    Callum,

    Very good article. This is a very interesting company and play to study. But, why is the stock tanking so much?
    Jun 19, 2015. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gulfport Energy: Opportunistic Consolidator In The Dry Gas Utica [View article]
    7422981,

    Why don't you take an honest and open minded look at AR?

    As, they are "merely" 94% hedged, I suppose that is not good enough for you?
    Jun 13, 2015. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wading Into The Oil Patch? Focus On The Balance Sheet - Part I [View article]
    T-time,

    EOG is not very well hedged at all. That is why their stock isn't doing that well. But, they are still a great company to own for the long term. Had you researched this company, I don't think you would have ever sold your holdings in it. Why not wait until it gets much lower than $90, and buy it right back? You might have a good chance for that in 2H, 2015.
    Jun 13, 2015. 01:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wading Into The Oil Patch? Focus On The Balance Sheet - Part I [View article]
    Ray,

    In the Bakken, for example, EOG is drilling wells, but not completing them, in areas that were long ago (almost ten years) HBP. This gives them a tremendous advantage over some of their competitors, who are presently getting forced to drill and complete lease holding wells on sometimes very questionable land positions.
    Jun 13, 2015. 01:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting Petroleum Is A Smart Bet In An Uncertain Oil Pricing Environment [View article]
    Frac4Crude,

    I don't have access to the info that you do, but I have always understood, that EOG was NOT completing any of their wells in the Bakken at this time. I also thought, that this was a very well known fact here at SA.
    Jun 13, 2015. 01:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources - Best Oil And Gas Play For The Downturn [View article]
    EV,

    It isn't any specific actions, that management is or isn't taking that concerns me so. It is the easily recognizable pattern of information flow in their investor presentations, which concerns me, as I associate this with loser Companies, due to my previous observations of such.

    For me to have confidence in a company, I would need to see them reveal and explain why their land position is so good, and I would like to see proof of such in the form of high EUR's, relative to their nearby competitors. So far, I'm not seeing much of this with this company. But, I will keep looking for something positive.
    Jun 13, 2015. 12:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources - Best Oil And Gas Play For The Downturn [View article]
    EV,

    About management.....and land positions, production, costs, etc. I actually found it a bit disturbing to see how the working background of management was so highly profiled in their investor presentation, in relation to all else. To me, that signals that they don't have much else besides "good" management, if even that.

    Also, the many references to nearby competitors suggests to me, that they really don't have much to offer on their own, besides promises. I am definitely very bearish on this stock right now, but I'm very open to any further comments you might have to say about it, and I think you have done an excellent job in presenting this company to the general investing public at SA. I will start to follow it.
    Jun 10, 2015. 02:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potentially Bottoming Gas Prices A Boon To Antero Resources [View article]
    rajprasad,

    Axas has been on my radar for quite sometime. It could be a good time to get in now, but I will probably pass on it. Any others?
    Jun 10, 2015. 02:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Whiting's Extensive Refrac Inventory May Provide Significant Upside [View article]
    Michael,

    I agree, but I certainly am having difficulty trying to understand where these lack of demand ideas are actually coming from. For the record.....

    According to the latest info from the EIA, US oil production hit another weekly high for the week ending 06/05 @ 9,610,000 bpd. The more important four week MA was @ 9,506,000 bpd, also a recent record.

    "Supply based gluts are much different and generally take much longer to get through. "

    So true. Lower for longer.....
    Jun 10, 2015. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Whiting's Extensive Refrac Inventory May Provide Significant Upside [View article]
    Ari,

    Perhaps, I should have been more clear in what I was saying. But, what I was referring to was, of course, associated gas coming from otherwise oil based production. Oil production is somewhat related to oil price, or at least it used to be. LOL

    So, what I meant was that after a further fall in oil price likely caused by the current, and also expected coming over production, oil production should eventually decrease, or at least according to economics 101. Then, it's possible that the price of NG will then rise, because of lesser associated NG coming to market.

    However, this theory greatly depends upon the eventual oil production that is cut, also contains a high ratio of gas to oil, and there can be no guarantee of that. Exactly how the market would respond to such a scenario is unknown. But, most shale companies produce both commodities.
    Jun 10, 2015. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonestar Resources - Best Oil And Gas Play For The Downturn [View article]
    EV,

    This statement of yours really concerns me.

    "35,000 net undeveloped assets in the light oil window of the Bakken"

    Ah, what other "Windows" are there in the Bakken?

    Sorry to rain on your parade, but I have reason to believe, that all the Bakken talk is mostly hype. They are way, way, way out in left field somewhere, quite far away from the core areas of the Bakken. As no one else can make any money way out there at $60 oil, I fail to see how they can.

    In the EF, they are pretty high up in the Black Oil window. That might sound real good to your ears, but the further up you go into that window, the less gas pressure there is to get the oil out.
    Jun 9, 2015. 03:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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