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Carl Martin  

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  • This Is How You Invest In Oil Right Now (Without USO) [View article]

    The diversification argument for oil stocks, or even general diversification in the stock markets, is grounded in the same mentality, of simply not knowing what to do specifically. In other words, if you don't know what you are doing, you better diversify. If you know what you are doing than you can safely remain focused on whatever (non diversified) strategy gives the best returns.

    My point is...... if investing in oil related financial instruments is of interest to anyone, then why not go the whole hog, and start learning about how to successfully invest in individual oil companies, and try to beat oil ETF's averages regardless of what flavor they are.

    The best place to start nowadays is with US shale oil companies. As the general public is extremely misinformed about them, just a small amount of study will likely put you far ahead of the pack. Everyone will be flocking to them soon anyway. Many of them are located in the XOP, ETF, which is why anyone who wants to earn money should invest in that ETF, rather than the others, because it DOESN'T track the oil price very closely. It will outperform on oil's way up, and underperform on oil's way down.

    I would also like to point out that WHR, Western Refining Inc. as it's name implies, is a refinery, not an E&P company. That's the main reason why it doesn't track the oil price. The author needs to do a lot of basic homework on the oil patch.
    Feb 13, 2015. 03:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanchez Energy: Eagle Ford Economics Are Still Improving [View article]

    Yes, of course, what else? But, exactly where in the world of reality does one find such an animal?
    Feb 13, 2015. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IEA Misses On Shale Production Growth Forecast [View article]
    "IEA Misses On Shale Production Growth Forecast "

    Just curious, but how does a forecast miss, before the time frame it covers even comes to pass?

    This article is completely based upon mis-"information" and opinions circulating around in the mass media, which have very little in common with shale oil reality. Therefore, I have no reason to believe that this author has any real insights into the shale industry.

    It might be rather revealing if the author would tell us what percent of shale oil wells he believes are stripper wells, and about how long the "average" shale oil well produces before it becomes a stripper well.

    There are certainly a lot of other oddities to this article, but I'll allow some others to point them all out. After all, enough is enough.
    Feb 12, 2015. 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding The Oil Market - An Industry Primer With Breakdown Of Recent Trends By Segment [View article]
    Was this article supposed to be a school project, or something?


    Investors are supposed to be focusing their minds, not getting caught up in all kinds of (by the way, inaccurate) and mostly irrelevant details.
    Feb 12, 2015. 12:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanchez Energy's Catarina Play - Unprofitable Acreage, Bought At Worst Possible Time [View article]

    All your above arguments only add up to "The bigger the doughnut, the bigger the doughnut hole." It is very obvious that you do not understand decline rates of shale oil/ gas wells at all. You have to use the ARP's formula and understand the difference between hyperbolic decline and exponential decline. All this was discussed and laid to rest at SA, YEARS ago. I think it's about time you got up to speed, here.
    Feb 12, 2015. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanchez Energy's Catarina Play - Unprofitable Acreage, Bought At Worst Possible Time [View article]

    Your comment does amaze me. As said, I don't own this stock, and therefore don't care, but at yahoo finance it is stated that their EPS is $0.38 but, I don't know if that is correct, or not.

    For whatever it's worth, I actually don't pay much attention to all the details that you do. When it comes to shale oil/gas stocks, I mostly just look at land position, use of technology, EUR's, where they are on the learning curve, and somewhat at management.

    It is possible that you are not able to see the woods, because all the trees are in the way. But, please don't get me wrong. I believe you have a very sharp mind, but it just may be getting twisted by peak oil ideology. You are on record for calling the peak for the EF in 2015?

    FYI..... We, who invest, invest in stock prices, not companies. Therefore, it is not always in our interest to invest in companies, that actually make a profit. The stock price of SN has only gone up since your article was written.
    Feb 12, 2015. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Media Is Dead Wrong About Oil Supply And Demand [View article]

    Yes, if the oil price does not drastically improve within a year or two, which is indeed possible, then a temporary peak in production would occur.
    Feb 12, 2015. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: 50% Upside Possible If Crude Oil Prices Rebound And Sentiment Changes [View article]

    You are probably correct.

    I do not follow this stock closely, but I just think it's many gas assets should not be so astutely ignored by the author.
    Feb 12, 2015. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackRock Hints 'Big Oil' Has Bottomed [View article]
    Very good article. Many of the oil companies bought by Black Rock will likely end up strong enough to buy out the weaker (unbought) companies. It has proved itself over and over again to be very savvy in hard commodities trades. I'm invested in some of their funds, that will be the beneficiaries of these trades. Again, great article.
    Feb 12, 2015. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is How You Invest In Oil Right Now (Without USO) [View article]
    Second, there are three main functions in the oil industry.

    1.Exploration and drilling
    2.Equipment and transportation
    3.Retail sales

    Just curious, but whatever happened to oil production?

    Author is making a massive "Red Herring Argument", because he is arguing for the upside of some kind of ETF investing as compared to another, but does not discuss INVESTING DIRECTLY IN OIL COMPANIES, even though one of his subtitles is......."Investing Directly in Oil Companies"

    An investment in an oil company ETF does not equate with direct investment in oil companies. It is an indirect investment in such. An ETF, that is focused on the futures market is also not a direct investment in such. It is an indirect investment.

    All of the above seems more like gambling to me than investing anyway. If you know enough about the oil industry to know which oil companies to invest in and when, then you can vastly outperform any of the above mentioned strategies. If this ain't you, maybe you shouldn't be speculating in the oil markets in the first place. Investment is, after all, knowledge based. It is not guessing.
    Feb 12, 2015. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips' Pragmatic Management Continues To Be Ahead Of The Curve (And Exxon Mobil) [View article]

    For whatever it's worth, I certainly back you up on this sentence.

    "The bottom line is COP has what I consider to be the second best position in the play next to EOG."
    Feb 11, 2015. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eclipse Resources Shares Should Move Higher Soon [View article]

    It's not just that we use the term differently, it's that you use the term differently than the industry does. That can confuse and mislead your readers, but I'm quite sure it's not intentional. I enjoyed your article.
    Feb 11, 2015. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: 50% Upside Possible If Crude Oil Prices Rebound And Sentiment Changes [View article]
    I am amazed, that an entire article on a very well known oil and "GAS" Company could be written without even mentioning it's gas assets. Sentiment play indeed.

    This company is very well hedged to oil prices in both 2015 and 1016...... relative to many other popular and unpopular investments. That means, that it is not so dependent on rising oil (or gas) prices as the author implies. It will likely do fine no matter what happens.

    I do not own this stock. But, I strongly suggest that interested parties should read their latest investor presentation. This article is highly misleading.

    Their production is 54% Natural Gas, 32% oil, and 14% NGL. In other words 68% of their production is not even oil based. Wake up out there!
    Feb 11, 2015. 06:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanchez Energy: Eagle Ford Economics Are Still Improving [View article]
    Excellent article!

    The "house of cards business model" referred to in relation to ALL shale O&G plays and companies, is very deeply entrenched fallacy, that is being perpetuated by (typically) Peak Oil crazies with a level of understanding of investing at just about absolute zero. They have looked at two or three very small and struggling E&P companies at the Yahoo finance quote page, that happen to have negative cash flow even with $100 oil, and then extrapolated that data to include all E&P companies in all the shale plays.....forever!

    About decline rates..... Same story as above. The nay sayers are using the oldest available data, (which is more reliable) but has less and less relevance, as time goes by, because of the enormous changes and gains in technology noted above. Believers in PO have simply come to the conclusion, that they are absolutely brilliant, because they have finally figured out that.... the bigger the doughnut, the bigger the doughnut hole. And, life, of course, is all about doughnut holes, not doughnuts.

    The fact that shale oil/gas wells have very high initial decline rates only means that the payback time for such wells is front loaded. Just curious out there, but exactly what kind of payback is actually superior to a front loaded payback? If decline rates are a problem to anyone out there, then just turn the graphs upside down to get the the accumulation rates. Okay, so the accumulation rate is very front loaded. So, the problem is......?

    In passing, I also might mention that the EF also includes the EF East, or Eaglebine, as well as stretching a ways into Mexico, and also all the way to and including the TMS in Louisiana and Mississippi. Not only that, it is a stacked play, just like all the other shale O&G plays. Therefore, when some idiot tells you that production from the EF has now peaked, and is now declining, they are only referring to one of many producing zones, but they don't even know that.

    Spinning off slightly undesirable assets is obviously a really positive move, that I believe we will be seeing more of by other smart operators. In spite of all the negative articles and comments about it at SA, SN still remains one the best performing O&G stocks out there, but I don't own any of it. (yet)
    Feb 11, 2015. 05:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walter Energy: A Contrarian Play With Tremendous Upside Potential [View article]
    It's heading upward over the past 10 days. The author might have a good point.
    Feb 9, 2015. 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment