Carl Martin

People Still Need to Eat: Fertilizer Stocks Oversold

The paragraph about Canaccord Adams is bizarre at best, and simply totally inaccurate, or perhaps dishonest at the worst. First of all, I assume the author meant bearish, not bullish as written, in regards to which "camp they have now joined." Was that just a typo, or was that a "Freudian Slip," when what one hand prints the truth, while the other hand prints what is false, and the author's mind can't see it and correct it, before readers see the lie. We will never know, as the true author is hiding behind the FP Trading Desk. For those who don't already know, Keith Carpenter was the most bullish professional analyst on Potash Corp. If he has in fact changed his evaluation, then that is very significant indeed. However, his previous evaluations were supposed to be based upon earnings estimates, not stock market activity. The article implys that Keith Carpenter is now basing his earnings target on much lower earnings. In reality, it seems like "he" is doing just the opposite. He "apparently" is no longer basing his stock price target on earnings. Instead, he is "apparently" basing his stock price target on the very real ongoing fear and deterioration in the stock markets. I wonder what measurement tool "he" is using? Or is he just being used by the author for questionable purposes? Why isn't he holding on to his previous earnings and stock price estimates, and just saying that the on going market activities will likely take the share price all over the place, but mostly downward at least short term? In other words, it will take some time to get back to fundamentals. Why would a professional suddenly become such an amateur? I wonder what Keith Carpenter would think about this article? I also wonder what you think? And how about the editors at SA???

The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt

Excuse me, the name is Michael Shedlock, sorry

The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt

I think the article should have been titled "The Five Reasons That Are Most Certainly Not The Five Reasons, Why Fertilizer Stocks Are InThe Dirt." To start with I believe that there are far more than" just five reasons" to explain what's going on with AG stocks, and none of these other well worn reasons were even mentioned. Apparently the author is not aware of anything like the credit crises, a world wide crises of confidence, hedge fund activities, fear, and most appropriate ignorance, to name a just a few in no particular order. Ignorance, by the way does not mean dumb or stupid. It means a lack of correct knowledge or information, or more simply, just not knowing. In that light, try reading this article all over again. If you still have doubts, try reading the articles written by Michael Smedmark at this web site.

Potash Corp. Earnings Shouldn't Peak Until at Least 2011

Think-About-It, Get Real! The only person on this planet, who can waste your own time is you! So stop holding other people responsible for your own foolishness, and start taking some responsibility for yourself. No one wants to hear about how unhappy you are wasting your time at seeking alpha. Only a very desperate loser would make a fool of themselves in public, in order to get some much needed attention. This website was created for serious investors to exchange their opinions and analysis about publicly traded companies, and you are very welcome to join the rest of us in this mutual pastime.

UBS Raises PotashCorp and Agrium's Price Targets - Again

CYERMAN, No to your first two questions, yes to your third. Your line of thinking and questioning is very good and correct,so keep up the good work, but you are mostly thinking USA. Just use the same type of thinking and ask all the same type of questions, as applied to the whole world. Then you will get the answers you are looking for.

UBS Raises PotashCorp and Agrium's Price Targets - Again

WILL, I can't agree with your reasoning, but I feel your anger and frustration. It seems to be overpowering your power of reasoning. Not many people can reason well, when anger is in control of the mind. Try calming down a little and reading this article and blogs over again, perhaps on another day. There is a lot of valuble information being offered to you free of any charge.The price of a company's stock at any moment only represents the balance of supply and demand for the stock at that moment. The price is merely the mechanism that ensures the relative balance between supply and demand. Markets are only as rational as the people who buy and sell in them. Do you actually think that we investor humanoids are rational? Do you think that the going price of any stock somehow does, or should, represent the true value of the company? When a company's stock price is going down, at the same time that the news flow is very positive, and the company and industry fundamentals are very strong, rational investors see that as a great buying opportunity. What you see now is a just a market shake out, and all the scared uninformed bears are selling to the calm well informed bulls. One of those bulls buying heavily is the management of Potash Corp, not with their own money, but with the shareholders money. We who are long POT don't have to do anything. Management does it for us by buying the stock of the scared and uninformed bears, at bargain prices during market turndowns, which is the subject of my next article. If you really want to get angry, try clicking on the July 1st article "The Better Performing Half Of Potash Corp" and subsequent articles. That will really make your day, if anger is what you like best. Second quarter results are due on Thursday, don't miss out on all the fun!!!

UBS Raises PotashCorp and Agrium's Price Targets - Again

JimPunkrockford, I'm sorry but I can't agree with your view of farmers using other cheaper fertilizers, or cutting back on Potash. The active ingredient in Potash (KCL) is Potassium (K) an element, that cannot be substituted for, as it is an element. In Phosphates, same story. Phosphorous (P) is also an element. Nitrogen (N) also same story. These are the three main fertilizers. The three lesser fertilizers are calcium (CA), sulfur (S), and Magnesium (Mg), also elements. None of these can be replaced by another to achieve a positive economic effect because they are all unique elements. All are necessary for optimum plant growth, but there is still much more. It's the correct balance between them all, that gives the farmer his pay off. Food scientists say that the world needs to double it's use of Potash to get the results needed to feed the whole world. It's the world wide lack of Potash used, that is causing the most problems. Therefore the best solution is to invest in Potash. The best places to get more info are potashcorp.com and monsanto.com, then you will see the light. North American farmers make about three dollars for every dollar they INVEST IN Potash. The rest of the world's farmers can make much more, up to about 10 dollars per dollar invested, because their fields are very depleted of Potassium, because they have never used enough of it, because many of them still don't know what Potassium actually is, and because they don't have any Potash deposits (India), or very few (China,Brazil, Indonesia, and most other countries.)

Canaccord Adams Bullish on Fertilizer Companies

I'm glad at least someone agrees with me!

The Agriculture Bull Keeps Getting Stronger

guliamo, I'm tempted to "buy" Potash corp for all the same reasons, but to be honest I don't think your reasons justify either buying or selling any stock. Could you explain better, why you think no company of this nature can justify a 190% gain in a year? POT has also had very large gains on many other years, along with many other fertilizer stocks

On Jun 26 04:41 AM guliamo wrote:

> I don't want to spoil everyones party and I used to own potash myself
> until a few weeks ago. I would like to share my rational for selling.
>
> potash isn't a new and emerging company.
> Potash isn't a software company.
> Potash isn't a biotech..
> Potash is a $74 billion company that mixes fertilizers and industrial
> acids, puts them in sacks and sells to farmers around the world.
>
> It's a great business, it's a great company with excellent financials
> and what appears to be excellent management.
> But hold your horses everyone .. no company of this nature can justify
> a 190% gain in a year. This isn't a small cap hidden gem..
> So fertilizer prices my be sky high, but at a P/E of 52.. Potash
> could take a serious dive, Be advised..

The Agriculture Bull Keeps Getting Stronger

There is certainly room for confusion and/or disagreement here. I call it KCL because Potashcorp does, as their deposits consist of Muriate of Potash. There are good explanations at their website, as well as at wikepedia.com. Be sure to scroll all the way to the bottom. They explain why K2o is NEVER used in fertilizers, but then contradict themselves in the introduction, just to confuse you, me, and everyone else. I suppose one should never say never!


On Jun 25 09:39 AM AlTrades wrote:

> Potash is not KCl, it is K2O

The Agriculture Bull Keeps Getting Stronger

This ongoing blog series amazes me.For those of you so against investing in fertilizers, I think that you should at least know what it is you are so against. I don't know of any fertilizers produced from oil,although obviously high oil prices have a negative effect on the whole industry.Nitrogen,"N", an element, which makes up about 80% of that stuff you breathe now what's that called? gets processed from natural gas. Potash is called potassium chloride "KCL"- that's a compound. The "K" stands for Kalium. That's German for Potassium,also an element.The word Kalium comes from the word Alkali which comes from Arabic "Al Kali" which means "The Plant." It refers to what's left over after you burn plants and trees.That grey stuff that's left after YOU SMOKE YOUR POT is mostly Potassium.The Dutch call it "Potasche" - the stuff left in the pot under your woodstove.If you piss on the ground, stinging nettles will soon grow there,because they thrive on Potash. In this case, it comes from the plants you eat, which need Potash to grow. Do you get it? Potash is a naturally occurring mineral. Phosphates are also naturally occurring minerals. They are found in limestone formations which consist of Calcium,an element,carbon,an element,and phosphorous,also an element. Do I need to say that all elements are also naturally occurring? Phosphates are limestone rock laced with Phosphorous, nothing more.To process Phosphates you need Sulfuric Acid. Are you guys also "Acid Heads"? It certainly seems like that. You might consider thinking about it. There are also three other minor fertilizers - Calcium,Sulfur,and Magnesium-all elements. It's all so elemental. Sulfur shows up in SOP,Sulfate of Potash,as oppossed to MOP,muriate of Potash or KCL.Back to the beginning.